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FD - HCA

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From: BB-Forrest

To: Coco
This Post:
00
112490.2 in reply to 112490.1
Date: 9/19/2009 8:35:03 PM
1986 Celtics
IV.16
Overall Posts Rated:
88
let me do a quick analysis of the HCA in the top divisions around the world. We might need to do a further reduction its true, though we did explicitly resimulate millions of matches in all divisions and tune the HCA to be reasonable.. so i would be surprised if it turns out to be crazyily one sided.

From: BB-Forrest

To: Coco
This Post:
00
112490.3 in reply to 112490.2
Date: 9/19/2009 8:43:33 PM
1986 Celtics
IV.16
Overall Posts Rated:
88
so far this season there have been 4338 games played in division 1s around the world, of those 2622 have been won by the home team, or a 60% HCA which is right in the range that we were aiming for. Looking at any individual league is not going to be statistically significant so far this season, maybe if you wanted to go around and collect the league ids or countryids of the top countries.


From: BB-Forrest

To: Coco
This Post:
00
112490.5 in reply to 112490.4
Date: 9/19/2009 9:08:42 PM
1986 Celtics
IV.16
Overall Posts Rated:
88
okay so lets look at last season for teams that won >8 games and <12

This Post:
00
112490.6 in reply to 112490.5
Date: 9/19/2009 9:14:42 PM
1986 Celtics
IV.16
Overall Posts Rated:
88
sorry my other numbers were wrong.. my query was written wrong...
there were 4597 away games played by D1 teams with wins >8 and <12
of those 3177 were won by the home team.
Now that is starting to be a little high at 69%
restricting it to the leagues you put below doesn't change the percentage much at all.

I need to think about what the HCA should be for .500 teams should be... I think they should win fewer away games than average, but I'm not sure.



Last edited by BB-Forrest at 9/19/2009 9:31:02 PM

From: sneakyB

To: Coco
This Post:
00
112490.8 in reply to 112490.7
Date: 9/19/2009 10:15:44 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
44
There's something to consider while you collect all that data : because of the importance of HCA, lots of managers in competitive leagues wil drop the away game by sending their subs and selecting the "take it easy" setting.

From: BB-Forrest

To: Coco
This Post:
00
112490.10 in reply to 112490.9
Date: 9/19/2009 10:24:41 PM
1986 Celtics
IV.16
Overall Posts Rated:
88
well if its 69% and this effect means it is really between 60-65 i'd say managers that throw those games away are doing it at their own peril.