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How predictive is the box score of players in the draft pool?

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From: uvaman9
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120715.1
Date: 12/2/2009 4:15:11 PM
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I'm having trouble deciding which player to put at the top of my draft order. I have a reasonably high draft pick and I'm confident that I'll get either my first or second choice, so this is pretty important for the future of my team.

One player has been scouted twice, has 5 ball star rating (A), 3 ball potential, and is 18 years old. His box score is respectable as he shot over 8-14 from the field, 2-2 on 3-pointers, and 4-4 on free throws. He also had 5 rebounds, 4 assists, 5 turnovers, 1 steal, 3 blocks, and 22 points in his 26 minutes of play.

The other player has been scouted once, has a 5 ball star rating, unknown potential, and unknown age. His box score is ridiculous as he shot over 16-18 from the field, 2-3 on 3-pointers, and 1-1 on free throws. He also had 1 rebound, 4 assists, 3 turnovers, 1 steal, 1 block, and 35 points in his 26 minutes of play.

Given the choice between those two players, should I play it safe and take the first one or take a chance and hope that the second one has a lot of upside?

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120715.2 in reply to 120715.1
Date: 12/2/2009 4:31:19 PM
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(120683.2)

For your particular situation, I think it depends whether you consider 3 ball potential to be good enough or not. If so, go ahead and put him first. If not, gamble and pick someone else ahead of him. Either way, I wouldn't rely too much on the boxscore, except maybe for fouls or freethrows.

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120715.3 in reply to 120715.2
Date: 12/2/2009 5:10:00 PM
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Gotcha, thanks for the advice and the link. Both were very helpful.

From: JohnnyB

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120715.4 in reply to 120715.3
Date: 12/3/2009 4:16:34 AM
Overall Posts Rated:
343343
In my draft i have 2 players 5 stars, and no other data. box score was the the only thing that is separating those is the box score. I put the 1 who is played better above the other.

About the FT. Is easily fixable. Every season u have to train once stamina and once FT. My atrocious 21 y/o C when he was 18, now has 4.

From: Trixter

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120715.5 in reply to 120715.4
Date: 12/3/2009 8:00:18 AM
Overall Posts Rated:
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Yes we all use boxscore when we dont have any other info, and even when we have, if I have 2 b+ players with same potential same position i'd look at the box score to separeate.
But does anyone know if it is at all reliable?

From: DoG

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120715.6 in reply to 120715.5
Date: 12/3/2009 9:25:04 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
1616
depends on the stat - for big men i look at assists and 3 FG attempted and made - for me those 2 are reliable indicators (I like big men with passing skills and range)

From: Rice

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120715.7 in reply to 120715.1
Date: 12/4/2009 1:28:18 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
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Even without that ridiculous box score, i would take the 2nd guy. A 3 star potential is at best an all-star, so i would rather risk taking the other guy, imagine if he's a hall of fame or more realistically MVP, you just hit the jackpot! I don't have experience if the box score is very reliable, but im relying on it this year..

Goodluck..

From: uvaman9

To: Rice
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120715.8 in reply to 120715.7
Date: 12/4/2009 2:07:09 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
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Thanks, I think that's pretty much the strategy I'm going to go with. I got real unlucky considering the players that were scouted twice had a 3 ball potential at best, so it makes it difficult to ensure that I'll get a player who I'll be able to train a lot, etc. Still, if I end up with a guy with announcer potential as my 1st round pick...that'll be a bummer.

From: CrazyEye

To: Rice
This Post:
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120715.10 in reply to 120715.7
Date: 12/5/2009 8:28:17 AM
Overall Posts Rated:
959959
Even without that ridiculous box score, i would take the 2nd guy. A 3 star potential is at best an all-star, so i would rather risk taking the other guy, imagine if he's a hall of fame or more realistically MVP, you just hit the jackpot! I don't have experience if the box score is very reliable, but im relying on it this year..

Goodluck..


i would only use the boxscore as tie breaker for "similiar" players, it is hard to get some information out of. Some guys in germany collected a bit one season, but the data wasn't very usefull.

I would go for number one, he is 18 and has a solid potential(above average when you follow the other thread here). Even when he has an petty early pick, and so better chanches to get still an top player.

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120715.11 in reply to 120715.1
Date: 12/5/2009 5:17:31 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
959959
I just want to give an example, how random the boxscores are:

FG: 8-13 | 2-13
3Pt: 1-4 | 2-2
FT: 0-0 | 0-0
off. Reb: 1 | 5
Reb total: 2 | 9
Ass: 2 | 9
TO: 3 | 5
Steals: 2 | 0
PF: 0 | 0
Pts: 17 | 6

This is most likely the same player, very high and rare potential a +/- in grade same position and age. The first value is the stats line from my game, the second one is the stats line from the opposition.