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what are my chances of there being a player with 5 star potenial and 5 star skill and being 18 in my draft?

There may not be any in your draft or at best only a couple. The quality of a draft can vary .

I would say very very low, but then again, the draft list is extremely random.

Baseline rankings are practically useless... Out of 15 players I scouted with 4 or 5 ball baseline rankings - only 2 players 4-star rating (B-, B+) and 1 5-star (A-); but all 19 year olds, with potentials of 2, 3, and 4 balls.

So unless there is a 5 star potential, 5 star skill, and 18 year old draftee hiding among the 3-, 2-, or 1- baseline rankings, i'm going to say that there is nobody close to that value in my league's draft. If there is, I'm firing all of my scouts - a drunken blind senile person could scout better. Nothing's worse than putting 1- and 2- ball star ratings in my top 5 baseline rankings, and having the 4- and 5- stars at the bottom.

And including previous drafts, I have never seen a 5 star potential, 5 star skill, and 18 years draftee.
Good luck though.

Let's assume for the sake of argument that the chance of being 18 is 50%, and the chances for each number of balls is 20%. That's not exactly the case, but it's close and rather overstates your case.

Assuming all of the above, and assuming that the distribution of these factors is independent, we'd have that the chance for any given player to fulfill your requirements is about 1 in 50, or 2 percent. The chance that none of the 48 players in the draft fulfill these requirements is therefore (1-0.02)^48=0.38.

So we conclude that the chance to find such a player in your draft is about 62%. There might even be several of those. However, since there are other teams drafting, you'll probably end up with a way lower chance of getting the player if he is in your draft.

So we conclude that the chance to find such a player in your draft is about 62%.

I doubt this is the case.

-I would think the chances for 4 or 5 ball star ratings are less than the chances for 2 or 3. (For me, out of 15 players scouted so far, 1 5-ball, 2 4-ball, 4 3-ball, 5 2-ball, 3 1-ball) (I scout according to baseline rankings) (In the real world, 5 and 4 ball ratings would be rarer than 3 and 2)

-As for age, I would agree that it should be about 50%. (For some reason thats not happening for me - out of 4 players i scouted the age of, all four are 19) (maybe better players tend to be older? had more time to improve? ...just a wild guess)

-He wont be able to scout every player, so the chance of him finding such as player is significantly lower than the chance of there being such a player in the draft.

-And as you said, with all the other teams in the league, the chance of a team getting the player decreases even more.

Last edited by j9s3 at 12/4/2010 7:59:59 PM

The question was what the chances were for such a player to be in the draft - not what the chances are that he discovers that player.

and I prefaced ny stating that these chances were probably overstating the case, but they are only approximations; the idea is to give a rough idea what the chances are (i.e., in this case, a little above 50%)

I understood what you said. I'm sorry if I wasn't clear on my point.

But I think the chances of 5 star player is around 0.1 or lower, which would make the overall chance lower:

1 - (.5*.1*.1) = .995
0.995 ^ 48 = .786
1- .786 = .214

So 21.4% chance of there being such a player - significantly lower than "a little above 50%"

I have no proof that the chance is .1 to find a 5 star rating or potential, but:
1) it seems more logical and realistic (players with "very high skill" are rarer than "average/respectable skill" in real life; same with potential)
and
2) based on my experience, out of 15 star ratings: 1 5-ball = .066, out of 4 potential ratings: 0 5-ball
thats a combined 1/19 = .05 - that would give us a 6% chance of having such a player in the draft, but i wont consider this an accurate calculation or my best guess because of the small sample size. I will go with 21.4% instead.
i know my sample size is not very big. that being said, i scout players based on their baseline ranking, scouting all the 5 and 4 ballers first; so unless the baseline rankings are completely reversed or completely random, the probability or finding a 5 star rating will decrease as I keep scouting (into the 3 ball, 2 ball, 1 ball baseline rankings) - (this would make my 6% chance even lower if i used my sample.)

but yeah, ill go with ~20% instead of <6%.

Not sure where u got 62% from. You already worked out that the chances of getting a 5 star/5 potential 18 year old is 2%. Isn't this the answer?. Of course this is based on the assumption that there is an equal chance for each age, star rating and potential which may not be the case.

Not sure where u got 62% from. You already worked out that the chances of getting a 5 star/5 potential 18 year old is 2%. Isn't this the answer?. Of course this is based on the assumption that there is an equal chance for each age, star rating and potential which may not be the case.

According to him:
2% chance of a given (1) player to be 5/5/18 -> 98% chance of given (1) player to not be 5/5/18
48 players in draft: 1 - (0.98)^48 = ~62%
thats how he got it. mathematically correct, but i believe there is a stronger argument that his starting probabilities are off.

Edit: forgot a 1

Last edited by j9s3 at 12/5/2010 12:31:22 AM

I still don't understand the maths. 48 players in draft: (0.98)^48 = ~62%, not sure why that calculation is used and what it means?

it's 1-(0.98)^48, but else yes.

Even if my starting projections are a little off, I expect the chance of each individual player to be optimal to be somewhere between 1 and 2%, and probably closer to 2. That gives overall chances of such a player being in the draft somewhere between 62% and 38%, so basically, the chance of having such a player in the draft is around 50%, and arguably a little higher.