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The following posts are my response to requests for me to a blurb. I'm not sure why it was thought that I would be able to do this but I'll have a crack none the less. I make no apologies for the following predictions and team summaries. These are my opinions and with a bit of luck, will incite a few of you out of your shells to comment about what I note.

I will firstly do brief summaries of each of the top 8 teams at present; Then I will briefly discuss two other teams that may make the finals and their chances; and finally I will bold predict the Div III.3 Champion and their road to the Championship. Buckle up...

Well, the regular season is drawing to a close and this season's final's series is set to be a ripper! Eight teams have separated themselves from the rest at this stage so let's have a quick look at each:


PART A (the Big 8)


URMUMMAS

Win/Loss: 16-2
World Rank: 7240
Player Salary Total: $250k+
Record against the Top 8 teams: 7-2
Run home: Should win 3 of 3

Top of the table, Urmummas (with 16-2 win/loss record), are still, in this reporter's opinion, the favourites to take out the Championship this season. If their last game against Miami (a 64pt demolition) is anything to go by, their form is red hot. Spending just under $700k this last month on two SGs/SFs, their team is well-rounded and poised to break through into Div II. Currently on an 8-game winning streak and boasting a starting five with a combined salary of more than $200k, the Urmummas are set to make an entrance in the impending finals' series. With a 7-2 win/loss record against the top 8 teams, losses only when they TIEd to oppositions' NORMAL, they certainly have the firepower capable of going all the way.



GLENVALE CHEATERS

Win/loss: 14-5
World Rank: 16040
Player Salary Total: $130k
Record against top 8 teams: 5-4
Run home: can win 2 out of 3


With most of their 14 wins coming in the first half of the season, th Glenvale Cheaters are desperately hanging onto 2nd spot on the ladder. With three players currently up for sale, it seems that the Cheaters are going to roll the dice one last time before the finals. Despite a solid season, a $130k player salary total and a 5-4 win/loss record against the top 8 teams, it is likely that the Cheaters will struggle to make the semi finals this season.



Ozzy Roasters

Win/loss: 13-6
World Rank: 7175
Player Salary Total: $170k+
Record against Top 8 teams: 4-5
Run home: can win all three

Last season's contenders seem to have pulled out of this season's final's race leaving the semi-final's door open for the Cheaters. With a $135k salary total (a shadow of last year's total), they appear to be biding their time until next season, reloading for the Season 18 Championship. This seemed confirmed with their very recent purchase ($900k) of an 18 yr old MVP Centre. While this team should definately not be dismissed come finals time, their 4-5 win/loss record against the Top 8 teams suggest they are unlikely to have the personel to do any real damage this season. Having said that, the Roasters should win the last three games of the regular season, bank their enthusiasm, and quite likely make the semis.



The Legends678

Win/loss: 10-9
World Rank: 14936
Player Salary Total: $108k
Record agaisnt Top 8 teams: 2-7
Run home: can win 1 or 2

Winning 4 out of the past 6 games , the Legends678 boast a 10-9 win/loss record this season. While they are unlikely to impact on the coming finals' series it is not from want of effort. With the lowest player salary total of the top 8 teams, the Legends have used their limited firepower to cling to 4th on the ladder. With no depth, their recent purchase of an $18K SG will definately help. Depending on their run home, they may hang on to 4th and make the finals. If, however, they lose all three games, they will certainly hand 4th spot and a finals birth over to the Hawks.

PART B (Great 8)


GC VIKINGS

Win/loss: 18-1
World Record: 7631
Player Salary Total: $180k+
Record against Top 8 teams: 9-0
Run home: can win 3, should win at least 2

Boasting the best win/loss record in the league (18-1), the Vikings final 3 games of the regular season will likely see them maintain this impressive record. With an imposing selection of smalls to choose from, the Vikings are a serious threat to the Urmummas claims to the Championship. While they have an outstanding 9-0 record against the top 8 teams it is wothwhile to note that wins against the better half of that 8 came as the result of greater effort in those games. The big question is: Can the Vikings beat the Urmummas on an even playing field? With a likely HCA advantage they would be very happy with their chances this season.



Moorditj Magick

Win/loss: 14-5
World Rank: 14391
Player Salary Total: $125k
Record against top 8 teams: 6-3
Run home: can win 3, should win 2

After losing 5 of the first 10 games, the Magick has won 8 of their last 9 games and are currently on an 8 game winning streak. Importantly, their 6-3 win/loss record agaisnt the top 8 teams is somehwat deceiving. Of those three losses (Urmummas, GC vikings and Ozzy Roasters) all three games saw the Magick TIE to their opponents NORMAL. While the Magick do not boast the firepower of the Urmummas and the Vikings, they are still in the hunt for the prize.



XBB

Win/loss record: 13-6
World Record: 8361
Total Player Salaries: $191k+
Record against top 8 teams: 2-5
Run home: can win all 3 or might lose all 3!

This is the dark horse of the competition! With a solid run in the Cup this year---where they put all their early energies into---XBB has slowly started to fire. On a 4 game winning streak, they have won 8 of their last 9 games. The Urmummas and the Vikings has better pay attention to this team who seem ready to impact in the finals. The last three games of the season, however, will determine whether or not they can secure HCA for the opening final game.



Cheltenham Bombs

Win/loss record: 10-9
World Rank: 27181
Total player salaries: 88K+
Record against top 8 teams: 1-6
Run home: can win 1, likely to lose all 3

Like the Legends678 on the opposing side of the league, the Cheltenham Bombs will struggle to impact on the impending finals. With the worst record against the top 8 teams (1-6) and the lowest player salary totals (88k), they simply lack the firepower to do any damage. Sadly, they are likel;y to be brushed aside in the opeing finals' game against the GC Vikings.

Before providing you all with my predictions I should briefly note the liklihood of Hawthorn FC and the Top Prides of making the finals.

Firstly, I think that with Hawthorn's run home compared to The legends678, the Hawks will likely steal 4th spot on percentage. However, like the Cheltenham Bombs on the opposite side of the league, they will offer no resistance to the Urmummas in the opening final. Their only chance would be to CT it and hope that will be enough against the Urmummas' NORMAL.

As for the Top Prides...

...mathematically they have a chance but unfortunately, that chance will officially end on Saturday when they are beaten by the Urmummas. With that loss, the Top Prides have no chance of making the finals. Sorry.

Okay, my predictions...



Last edited by Mr J at 10/4/2011 8:54:55 AM

This is perhaps the hardest part of all as so many variables play a part in the finals. There are weaker teams CTin it and winning agasinst stronger teams who play Normal to conserve some enthusiasm; there are sudden injuries to key players; and their are the advantages and disadvantages of having or not having Home Court Advantage (HCA).

Without reall checking all of the teams' histories, I'm going to go out on a limb and guess that most, if not all of the top 8 teams that make the finals, have won through to Div III by winning a Div IV Championship somewhere along the line. With this said, there is some significant experience here.

The following is only my opinion...


BIG 8


GAME 1 (Urmummas v Hawthorn FC)
The Urmummas will sweep aside a hapless Hawthorn FC in the opening round (or perhaps The Legends678). The Hawks (or perhaps Legends) will likely CT the game in the hope of a miracle. The Urmummas can play Normal and still account for both of these teams providing there are no sudden injuires to the Urmummas and they play offensively to their strengths. Urmummas head to SF.

GAME 2 (Glenvale Cheaters v Ozzy Roasters)
The Glenvale Cheaters and the Ozzy Roasters will both likely CT this game to ensure they remain in the finals. If so, the Ozzy Roasters should sneak this one out despite the Cheaters HCA. Ozzy Roasters head to SF.

GREAT 8

GAME 3 (GC Vikings v Cheltenham Bombs)
The GC Vikings will Normal this game against the Bombs CT. No contest! Vikings head to SF.

GAME 4 (Moorditj Magick v XBB)
My tip to be the closest of the four games. This will depend heavily on who has HCA. With three regular season games remaining, this one is yet to be sorted. If XBB have HCA they will win. If Magick have HCA they can win. Given the Magick's fondenss of TIEing games, the XBB will likely snare HCA and win through to the SF.


Semi Finals

GAME 1 (Urmummas v Ozzy Roasters)
With higher enthusiasm to begin with, the Urmummas should still win through regardless of whether they CT or NORMAL this one. While the Roasters have the personel here to steal the victory, I believe both will CT the game and the Urmummas will head to the GF.


GAME 2 (GC Vikings v XBB)
Again, this game has the potential for an upset. XBB has the firepower to take down the Vikings. If both teams CT this one I believe the Vikings will win through on the back of their HCA. GC Vikings to head to the GF.


GRAND FINAL

The opening game, unless the Vikings drop one of the the 3 games prior to the finals thus giving up the HCA to the Urmummas, the Vikings can win game 1 of the best of 3 series. Game 2 will likely be at Urmummas and see them level up the series at 1 a piece. I strongly believe that if these two teams meet in the GF then this series will go to three games.

The third game, played on the Vikings home court, will be an away win for the Urmummas. I believe that the enthusiasm sub levels for the Urmummas will be sufficiently greater than the Vikings to allow them to sneak out an away victory and claim the Championship.

VERDICT


The Urmummas will be...


...Season 17 Div III.3 CHAMPIONS!!!





Last edited by Mr J at 10/4/2011 8:48:42 AM

Well, you wanted a write up, there you have it! Now...


...let's talk about it. lol

Firstly, Great job there Matty! Have been looking forward to this write up. Btw no need to be sorry there I wouldn't have dreamed anything more than just to stay in this league this season! considering I still have two and possibly three games of relegation series to play. I would see the finals as a match-up between the Urmummas and GC if anything goes right. I think the Urmummas still have the edge but with the new SG GC has that would make the series way more interesting. I believe GC has the great ambition to win the series shown from the previous posts and that import would help a lot in containing Waterhouse and breaking his defense. With the same enthusiasm and the HCA held by GC (most likely), I would like to tip the upset if GC can find the right tactics against the 120K PG, Waterhouse.

Lastly I would like to give all my thanks to you Matty for your time and your brilliant write up, I was going to rate all your posts but can only do one every 12 hours. I would rate them all once is available.

+3.. I will have to wait to rate the other 2 (12 hours), only 3 because I am of the opinion I will win! :) They were fantastic write ups Matty as mentioned by ZinGa, I do look forward to seeing how this challenge progresses though :) One more to ponder on... What if I am not done with my roster??? :D

Then you have more money than I had first guessed...or...you are willing to go into debt briefly to claim the prize!

Either way, if you are able to add to your current team, and Urmummas don't, maybe....just maybe...this is your season.

I wish you and everyone else the best of luck during the finals.

By the way...I still have one more piece to add myself...although it may have little impact.

No debt needed, still have a little left and enough income to make a small profit if the player is 60k or less.. It will for more than to buy my way out but to keep me up if I can get there. A new piece to your roster, good luck getting your next piece, I will be facing you soon :)

we meet in the last game of the season...should be a nice game. I might actually try and win that one! lol

Good luck

Well, the pre-final tactics have begun! XBB played with their lineup tonight to get a gauge for what to play come the finals where the two of us will meet. I thought he might try this...hope you got something out of that ploy, XBB! lol

I'm surprised he gave up this match with his HCA to test my team lineup...

All the games this round seemed to go as planned with wins for Urmummas, Glenvale Cheaters, Magick, Ozzy Roasters, Hawthorn FC, GC Vikings, CARLTON and the LA Netters.

Maybe the Hawks are going to throw this final series after all....