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Transfer Price Estimate (thread closed)

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This Post:
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211894.1
Date: 3/2/2012 1:36:57 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
88
When I say it's mostly broken, I'm referring to stuff like this.

Look at the skills of the two players below, I honestly can't find a single reason why player 2 should be worth more than player 1. Well, one may argue that player 1 in perspective has now a higher salary, which can be also said for players "with skills more similar" to him (higher salary --> less value).

Any other idea for this difference in TPE?


PLAYER 1

Weekly salary: $ 55 854
Role: regular starter
(BuzzerBeta)

DMI: 420600
Age: 23
Height: 6'1" / 185 cm
Potential: perennial allstar
Game Shape: strong
Jump Shot: phenomenal ↑ Jump Range: sensational
Outside Def.: wondrous Handling: proficient
Driving: sensational Passing: strong
Inside Shot: average Inside Def.: inept
Rebounding: pitiful Shot Blocking: average
Stamina: average Free Throw: mediocre

Experience: inept

Transfer Price Estimate: There have been 9 recent transfers of 23-24 year old shooting guards with phenomenal-legendary jump shot and perennial allstar potential. Of these, the ones with skills most similar to (PLAYER 1) have been selling for around $ 750 000 to $ 1 000 000.

------------------------

PLAYER 2

Weekly salary: $ 60 894
Role: regular starter
(BuzzerBeta)

DMI: 211700
Age: 23
Height: 6'3" / 190 cm
Potential: perennial allstar
Game Shape: respectable
Jump Shot: phenomenal Jump Range: prolific
Outside Def.: tremendous Handling: proficient
Driving: respectable Passing: pitiful
Inside Shot: mediocre Inside Def.: inept
Rebounding: average Shot Blocking: mediocre
Stamina: awful Free Throw: atrocious

Experience: awful

Transfer Price Estimate: There have been 9 recent transfers of 23-24 year old shooting guards with phenomenal-legendary jump shot and perennial allstar potential. Of these, the ones with skills most similar to (PLAYER 2) have been selling for around $ 1 000 000 to $ 1 500 000.

Last edited by gselfish at 3/4/2012 12:25:57 PM

This Post:
00
211894.3 in reply to 211894.1
Date: 3/3/2012 8:26:08 AM
Overall Posts Rated:
108108
Don't let the GMs read this

"Falling in love is not at all the most stupid thing that people do but gravitation cannot be held responsible for it."
From: E.B.W.

This Post:
00
211894.4 in reply to 211894.3
Date: 3/3/2012 3:32:10 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
26152615
Why? I thought it was acceptable to list players that are on sale in the forums as long as you dont use their names, send a link to that player, or what team their on. He just has them listed as PLAYER 1 and PLAYER 2.. This is fine correct? Or have i been misinformed?

Murray/Harris/MPJ/Grant/Jokic - 2020 NBA Champs
From: Lucifer

This Post:
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211894.5 in reply to 211894.4
Date: 3/3/2012 10:54:02 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
108108
Hmm.. now I'm confused. I'm not sure, but I think you are right. I think if the names are not posted then it is ok. I just though it was against the rules to ASK for a TPE. Maybe I'm wrong.

"Falling in love is not at all the most stupid thing that people do but gravitation cannot be held responsible for it."
This Post:
00
211894.6 in reply to 211894.5
Date: 3/4/2012 1:12:36 AM
Aussie Pride
ABBL
Overall Posts Rated:
545545
The OP isn't asking for a TPE though. The question is more aimed at how the TPE is calculated and why there is a difference for the 2 players.

From: Fluff

This Post:
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211894.8 in reply to 211894.1
Date: 3/4/2012 10:25:08 AM
Overall Posts Rated:
8989
player 2 has 2 more inches to give !

From: gselfish

This Post:
22
211894.9 in reply to 211894.2
Date: 3/4/2012 12:36:54 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
88
As long as it just focus on one skill, potential and age it will never be accurate.


Well I'm not sure I entirely agree with this.

I mean, based on one skill, potential and age the system narrows down the field to the same 9 players.
After that, there is an attempt to narrow the options even more, as the sentence "the ones with skills most similar to xxx" suggests. That's where the discrepancy between the two players arises. In this passage, there's obviously something wrong.

Now, I don't want to complain too much about a system that, overall, mostly works.
Nevertheless, TPE can have a big impact on the offers for a player, even if more experienced managers will surely be able to recognize his proper value.
In that respect, even the overbidding warning doesn't help. When one reads "It is against BuzzerBeater rules to bid above market rates on a player.", he/she may be led to assume that bidding higher than the TPE is really a bad, dangerous idea.

This Post:
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211894.10 in reply to 211894.8
Date: 3/4/2012 12:41:20 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
4545
"With skills similar to" is the key phrase there, I would imagine. Identical age, potential and skill to be graded on. That is the only variable.

I am not sure how the transfer market engine does estimates, nor am I aware of anyone who has done a study. Salary would be a good guess to why they are different. You also have to understand that this estimate can only go off of similar players sold and is not necessarily a players actual worth in the market. It is an inexact science. Maybe someone overbid a bit on a similar player to "player 2" and that makes his TPE a bit high, while similar transfers to "player 1" were on slow hours/days and were sold for lower prices as a result.

I always laugh when I look at the market and see a mediocre player for a ridiculous sum on the market, then look at the players TPE and the upside matches the set opening bid. I wonder what would happen if the TPE was raised by 10% just for a week. It would probably result in fewer players being sold, but would be an interesting study because I think a lot of players use it as a tool to set prices AND reference point when purchasing players.

At any rate, it isn't broken, just needs to be taken with a grain of salt because of the parameters it uses.