@Xamos: When I say "throw" I'm not talking about PON-ing. I'm talking about leaving your starters on the bench or not dressing them. (I was being a little tongue-in-cheek when I said "greedy bastard." You're right, the game gives every incentive for managers to want three games. The only disincentive is the increased possibility of injury in playing a third game for a superior team with HCA.)
PON, PON, POCT all depends on what you think will happen in G2. Let's look at it in the different scenarios:
1) You are the superior team and can survive on -1 effort @ home.
• Concede G1, take G2, flip the coin for G3
2) You can win at home on equal effort, but not at -1 effort.
• Concede G1, pray they PON G2, pray for a miracle in G3
3) It's a toss up at home on equal effort.
• Concede G1, pray they throw G2, pray for a miracle in G3
4) You will lose at home on equal (or less) effort.
• Concede G1, pray they throw G2, pray for a miracle in G3
In scenarios 2-4, the team with HCA is likely to PON, PON, POCT. And if you match their strategies, you neither gain nor lose any advantage and are stuck praying for a miracle in G3. But you can improve your chances if your opponent POCT's G1 – which might make a difference in scenario 2, but won't do you a lot of good in scenarios 3-4.
In scenario 1, you can win if you can either steal an away game on equal effort (in which case you're clearly the superior team) or your opponent POCT's G1 or G2 (in which case they've basically given you the trophy).
After pondering all these strategies, I was inspired to make a strategy guide:
(236531.1) It'll show you what I think.