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I just finished throwing together some stats from my league's season because... well, because I'm a numbers geek and a basketball geek. Bad combination. Want to see what I found?

These aren't going to be suggestions, just observations. Things I think are interesting or peculiar or make sense or don't make sense...

A Comparison of BB to the NBA
When I first played this game, a couple years ago, I was put off by how not-NBA it was. The thing that stood out the most was ALL the missed shots. I could only put up with so many runs of "miss-defensive rebound-miss-defensive rebound" before I had all I could handle. It was never as bad as I thought, but yes, there are more missed shots in BB than in the NBA. That's not all I found. This is what the average game for the average team looks likes in BB and in the NBA:

Field goals
BB: 38 for 88, .428
NBA: 37 for 81, .450

Two pointers
BB: 33 for 70, .466
NBA: 30 for 62, .480

Three pointers
BB: 5 for 18, .283
NBA: 7 for 20, .357

Free throws
BB: 13 for 19, .669
NBA: 17 for 22, .753

Rebounds
BB: 12 offensive, 35 defensive, 47 total
NBA: 11 offensive, 31 defensive, 42 total

Assists and turnovers
BB: 20 assists, 12 turnovers
NBA: 22 assists, 14 turnovers

Steals, blocked shots, and personal fouls
BB: 7 steals, 6 blocked shots, 15 personal fouls
NBA: 8 steals, 5 blocked shots, 20 personal fouls

Points, possessions, and efficiency
BB: 93 points, 97 possessions (estimated), .965 points per possession
NBA: 97 points, 94 possessions (estimated), 1.027 points per possession

The Four Factors
BB: .457 effective FG%, 11.1% TOs, 25.3% Off Reb, .144 FT per FGA
NBA: .493 effective FG%, 13.7% TOs, 26.8% Off Reb, .204 FT per FGA

This is just one league, and I haven't adjusted for tactics because it's impossible to know the exact impact they have. But I would think most leagues would show similar results.

Buzzer Beater teams turn the ball over less (by about 15%) and foul less (by about 25%), leading to more shots from the field and fewer free throws. However, Buzzer Beater teams make fewer of these shots. They make significantly fewer of their three-point attempts, so much so that it seems like they're not worth taking compared to two-pointers. I have no real idea of how the "Look Inside Virus" plays into this - whether it's cause or effect - but I have strong suspicions that it doesn't hurt to maximize your two-point attempts, between the expected value of the shots themselves, and the increased likelihood of free throws (maybe).

More to come...

Last edited by Antares23 at 3/3/2013 7:08:09 PM

I actually think your study (which is awesome btw) shows some good things about BB.

Although the percentages are slightly lower, they are consistently and proportionally lower as well. Which means, aside from being lower, they relate to RL play very well.

Also, the high discrepency in 3 pt percentage I think is a result of the popularity of LI, which completely abandons 3 point shooting. Another thing to consider is tanking and bots. The NBA doesnt have teams that are losing on purpose, or unmanaged teams that are being beaten 100-40 every night. If every manager in your league were fielding competitive teams, the shooting percentages would be higher.

Thanks for the feedback, yeppers. A couple thoughts...

1) I would expect an interior-focused offense to shoot fewer three-point attempts than in a standard offense, but that we might see a higher percentage than in a base offense, because the distribution of attempts skews even more towards the perimeter players. (Assuming that the guards are capable outside shooters, and the defense doesn't try to take away the outside, and on and on...)

2) This sample is taken from a league with no bots in it (Division IV), so that part is at least taken care of. Using teams that are losing on purpose is one of those things I can't avoid, just as I can't do anything about tactical choices. It would be ideal to set up a private league where I get teams to play only in base offense/man-to-man and to only use Let Coach Decide as the substitution pattern. That's as close to a true representation of the game engine as we could possibly get without actually being on the inside. But no one would want to be in that league for very long, I suspect. The next best option is to examine a league like the NBBA, which I actually intend to do this season if I have time. But the same limitations are going to impact anything I find there, too.

Last edited by Antares23 at 3/3/2013 10:49:11 PM

I'd be more curious to see how BB compares to the WNBA or bad college basketball. But nice job compiling all that.