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Marin have you tweaked the 3pt FG% across the board by the usual 'marginal' amount?

This is what happened in today's game:
http://www.buzzerbeater.com/match/92909693/reportmatch.as...

Guard 1: 5-7 from 3pt and 3-8 from 2pt (140 PP100 through 3 quarters, his actual PP100 in the ratings: 110)
Guard 2: 3-4 from 3pt and 3-7 from 2pt (136 PP100 through 3 quarters, his actual PP100 in the ratings: 103)
Guard 3: 5-5 from 3pt and 1-5 from 2pt (170 PP100 through 3 quarters, his actual PP100 in the ratings: 110)

So the guys were shooting a combined 81.3% from 3 and a combined 35% from 2 (mostly long 2s, mind you). Also the vast majority of the makes were unassisted...

Guy number 1 has 34k salary and was guarded by a near 14 and a 15+ OD combo.
Guy number 2 has 31k salary and was guarded by 16 OD throughout.
Guy number 3 has 20k salary and was guarded by the same 14-15 combo as guy number 1.

Please confirm whether this is a bug, something random or something intentional. If further 'minor' adjustments have been done silently to outside shooting, then please write a news post to clarify if it's a flat increase or it's based on specific skills. If instead shooting numbers like that from multiple players (80%+ from 3 point and 35% from long 2s) are random, then I invite you to check the skills of the players, the GS and make a decision on whether it is something that should be happening in the game, considering it nearly impossible for this to happen in real life (simultaneously by multiple players).

Last edited by Lemonshine at 11/15/2016 11:58:11 AM

1__ SF OD is pretty low (11) so there is that. Rating suffer because of that but it's irrelevant on the PG SG matchups. Full lineup would be 16-15-x (won't reveal the SF as he's in the NT but it's obviously not lower than the other 2). 2__4th quarter was mostly Garbage Time... 3__the Warriors were the first team in 40 years to have 4 players sinking 4 3s. I think 3 players all sinking at least 3 treys on 70% or more 3pt FG% has never been done, but I'll look it up. 4__50% FG% difference between long 2s and 3 pointers on reasonably high volumes...i'm sure you have a rational explanation for this

1. The low OD team rating was mostly due to the SF, I already explained. Team rating is relevant for unguarded shots and most of the shots were in the face of the 16 OD guy or the 14 OD guy. No need to clutch at straws when you don't need to. Yes those defenders had strong GS, yes there was one GDP wrong, yes there was HCA and more Enth, but you are seriously saying that it's normal and not a bug, that a 2 level difference match up (which is lower once you remove the SF in the OD computation) results in 80%-85% 3 point shooting? As for the Stamina the primary defenders had 9 and 6 and the backup had also 6.

2. The starters came back for a few minutes where they closed the game and went back out. Let's count everything then:
Player 1: 5-8 (62.5%) v 4-10
Player 2: 3-4 (75%) v 4-8
Player 3: 6-8 (75%) v 2-9
Total: 70% from the 3 point line and 37% from 2. Explain how this is not a bug.
Also can you show examples where a higher offensive-defensive difference has led to equal or more makes on equal or better efficiency? In simple words, show a few games were the difference was 2 levels or more (even prominent vs mediocre will do) and 3 guards all scored at least 3 3-pointer on at least 62.5% efficiency.

3. 2 players were out because of garbage time. Notably player 2 above which is also the best overall shooter of the 3.
In any case let's stick to what happened and look for 60%+70%+70% and 3 makes each in the same game ok? There are too many results from basketball reference if I put 60% and 3 makes, so it will take me time to extract the results and look for 3 happening in the same game. However at some point I will return and show you how many times it happened, if it happened, in the last 32 years.

4. Volume should be obviously taken in the context of basketball. In basketball terms volume means number of shots taken. High volume shooters are players taking a comparatively high number of shots. So now that you know what the request was, please explain how 70% on 20 3-pointers is logical next to 37% on 27 (mostly long) 2-point jump shots against the same defense. Please remember the BBs always said in respect of shots from distance and that a long 2 is a higher probability shot than a 3 and even the game manual implies exactly that.
And please no multiple theories, it can't be random and at the same time also due to offense-defense differential: it's one or the other, it has a logical explanation or it doesn't. Possibly you will support your opinion with some data or example.

I'm not mad that I lost. The ratings are obvious. I suspect that Marin fiddled even more with outside shooting without telling anyone and that now a guarded 3 pointer is a higher probability shot than a guarded long 2 pointer. This is the problem, not the fact that 3 players whatever their JS and JR, can shoot 70% or 80% from 3 in the same game (which is ridiculous and obviously unrealistic and I will prove this to you with hard data).

Last edited by Lemonshine at 11/15/2016 7:01:42 PM

And of course ridiculous 3 points shooting can happen in real life : (http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/sports/scores109/109013/NB...)

a. In the Magic game, there are no 3 players with 3 makes and 62.5%+ 3ptFG%, there are 2.
b. In the magic game there are no 4 players with 4 makes. The warriors did that last week for the first time ever.

Also you need to put things in perspective. The average 3ptFG% in the NBA is 35%-36%. The average in the game is less than 30%. So yeah something like 80% by 3 players is even more of an outlier in the game than it is in the real world.

beating a dead horse are we? I have no interest in debating how rare a case this is as I already told you. I think we agree that this is an outlier and that it is not normal in a game where 3pt shooting (on average) is much worse than real life (due to lack of JR evidently). Or at least it wasn't until a few seasons ago. You are taking this off topic and if you want to discuss why I decided to go with 62.5% (after one of the players dropped from 82% in the last quarter) or where I set the limits to validate the claim this is an weird outlier, we'll have to do it somewhere else. If you agree that this is unusual in BB terms we can move on and get to the real point.

The problem is not with the 3 point shooting itself, but that the long 2s were rolling at 30% and the 3s at 80% and most of them were guarded shots. There is another good 3pt shooting team in that league (nachtmahr), but generates more open looks and, although the averages are higher (3 players are above 43% from 3), he doesn't get games where he shoots 70% or 80% across several players. This is the problem.

If something has been done to boost 3 point shooting (vs 2 pointers) further without announcement, I think we have the right to know, especially if the boost kicks in on guarded shots as opposed to open looks. GE changes should be announced, without giving out the details of course.

Last edited by Lemonshine at 11/16/2016 3:35:21 AM

Yes once I proved to you that this can happen in real life several times while you claimed it was impossible AND asked me to provide data, you want to stop debating about this, I understand perfectly why. Hard to recognize the truth.

I never claimed it was impossible. You have a direct quote where I say it's nearly impossible. You're welcome to keep looking for a game where 3 players got 81.2% from 3 and 3 makes, which is what my original post was about.

So far you found only 1 with the much more lenient requirement of 62.5%. I'll help you: http://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/200002200CH...

My opinion is that it is random, IG like IRL.

Backpedaling are we? You gave your explanation:

1/ You can claim high OD on your players but your OD grade is quite bad (strong high = 8.6 when your maximum this season is 10.6) because of your wrong GDP, your bad gameshapes and your C defending PG has no sub (stamina ?). On the contrary his outside scoring grade is pretty good.

You said it was OD, ST, Strong (bad...) GS. You also said it was random. So it was both non random (due to bad OD,ST, GS), random and presumably not scalable (i.e. no evidence same shooting vs worse OD does produce even better results, you ignored this multiple times). Impressive...

And for me that the GE is fine as it is. Your kind of game probably happened also 10 seasons ago before the fine tuning of Marin concerning JR (he likes to take it slow and I like him for that).

Do you know something we don't and has never been announced?

You conveniently forget the part were the shots were guarded by 16 OD and 14 OD or 15 OD. That was said in the very first post, you just dismissed it as the team rating not being good enough. My prolific inside rating was also based on a 12-12-13 IS in the frontcourt, do you think 'prolific' properly reflected it? Yeah I didn't think so either. Nachtmahr's guys shoot better than these 3 players on average and never shot 70% simultaneously.

Your kind of game probably happened also 10 seasons ago before the fine tuning of Marin concerning JR (he likes to take it slow and I like him for that).

I'm sure someone is going to be able to find one such game. BB is a game, probably based on RNG and expected averages, therefore you'd expect it to follow patterns. The long term average is affected by the conditions in the single game, such as among others the number of open/guarded shots and the OD faced. Now, when the patterns are no longer there or are subverted for no logical reason, it's fair to ask if something has been done to the GE in order to produce such results.

Let's agree to something. I will take 176 games from this season and will check the guarded vs unguarded 3pt FG%. Then I will do the same from 10 seasons ago at D2 level in France and compare them. If the guarded shot FG% has gone up then you will campaign with me to have Marin tell us if he's done something.

If you want to make a deep true analysis, take all the games of your league, put them in game analyzer and sort 3s compared to long 2s. Here you may be able to sort a true statistic and prove your point . One game analysis is just useless. You don't study a phenomena by its extrema, that is a basic statistics law.

That data sample is too small and any change in the GE is likely to go unnoticed until something extreme begins to happen when players with particular skills are in the same team. Your statistical analysis is a fairly pointless idea for several reasons:
1) we don't know the skills of the players involved.
2) data would need to be compared to other data which does not exist
3) a sample size of a single league is not big enough for a statistical analysis to yield robust results.
4) it would be impossible to understand whether improvements are due to changes in the relative skillsets between the offense and defense or changes in the GE without knowing whether the GE changed.

Last edited by Lemonshine at 11/16/2016 8:11:19 AM