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Ok fellas, I'm going to link some shot breakdown tables for the B3 KO games (293 games, so 496 tactics used). l'm doing this to expand on the conversation we started on Princeton and to thank Captain Teemo. You are all free to draw the conclusions you want from the numbers.

Keep in mind the numbers work like this:
- Each shot can either end up in a foul or in a make/goaltend/miss/block
- Each shot is either assisted, defended or neither (individual action)
- So ultimately each shot can be open or defended. Open shots can be either assisted or the result of an individual action and never result in a shooting foul. Defended shots can either end up in a shooting foul or any other result.
- In the tables the total shots taken are the sum of FGA and fouls. The percentage values are calculated on the sum of shots and fouls.
- In the tables Fouled are actually Defended&Resulted in a foul; Ast'd are Open shot&assisted; Open are All Open shots (both assisted and individual); Def'd are Defended&Not resulted in a foul. So the total shots are actually split among Fouled, Open and Def'd as Ast'd are a subgroup of Open. I thought of using Individual instead of Open, but Individual shots are often only a few.
- TS% is (2*2FGM+3*3FGM+FTM)/(2*(FGA+FTA*0.5)). Now, in reality I used the fouls to determine the correct amount of FTs attempted as a result of a shot, thus eliminating all the FTs which happen after a technical or after the bonus is reached and I also adjusted for the fact that some shooting fouls only result in 1 FT (after a made shot) instead of 2 or 3 (about 3%-3.5% to be exact). So FTA = 1.9*FOUL(2pt)+2.85*FOUL(3pt) and FTM=FT%*(1.9*FOUL(2pt)+2.85*FOUL(3pt))

TS% then captures both the extra worth of 3 point shots and the fact that players are fouled more on some shots than others.

Of course this tables only reflect the offensive side of the GE, but other things like Rebounding are also impacted by the offensive tactic and that is not reflected in these tables (although inside tactics have more putbacks than any other tactic, so there is already an indication that inside tactics get a boost here).

So here we go:
Summary: http://tinypic.com/r/10pcykg/9
All Tactics: http://tinypic.com/r/5l851d/9
Base offence: http://tinypic.com/r/p9d6r/9
Push the ball: http://tinypic.com/r/2dsfzad/9
Patient: http://tinypic.com/r/msoavo/9
Look inside: http://tinypic.com/r/rszvj7/9
Low Post: http://tinypic.com/r/208zm9k/9
Motion: http://tinypic.com/r/eq0zgk/9
Run and gun: http://tinypic.com/r/2lw3l6q/9
Princeton: http://tinypic.com/r/jqn610/9
Inside isolation: http://tinypic.com/r/22khsw/9
Outside isolation: http://tinypic.com/r/8z2q2h/9

2/3 of the teams used either LI or LP. We also have neglected the impact of GDP which is likely to skew the results significantly against inside tactics, as they get predicted much more often than outside tactics (which may conversely benefit from missed GDP).

Last edited by Lemonshine at 4/18/2018 6:04:03 AM

The following shots from (90296919) are all 'SPINNY'. As you can see there is always reference to open space. It is clearly a jump shot, if I had to guess it's probably a turnaround jumper. Fall away is a fade away and I'm not 100% if it should be considered an inside shot or a jumper. Both have 0% chance of going in when unguarded (see very last example).

Spinny

1 7:05 14 — 8 P. Cuvelier (A) loses his man and uses the open space to set his feet before taking a jump shot, guarded closely by M. Bello (H). Scored.

P. Cuvelier (A) loses his man and uses the open space to set his feet before taking a jump shot with M. Bello (H) guarding him closely. Shot missed.

1 3:26 22 — 18 E. Župan (A) loses his man and uses the open space to set his feet before taking a jump shot over K. Hunt (H). Scored.

2 7:55 35 — 32 S. Čalić (A) loses his man and uses the open space to set his feet before taking a jump shot, guarded closely by D. Meek (H). Shot missed.

3 11:03 44 — 48 B. Tamariz Vargas (A) loses his man and uses the open space to set his feet before taking a jump shot with B. Stanimirović (H) guarding him closely. Shot missed.

Fall away

1 1:53 24 — 20 P. Gorzel (H) can't shake his defender and is forced to shoot a fade-away, guarded closely by P. Cuvelier (A). Scored.

1 0:49 24 — 22 T. Bajlec (A) fakes before attempting a fade-away jumper with S. Bowens (H) guarding him closely. Shot missed.

3 10:06 46 — 48 P. Cuvelier (A) can't shake his defender and is forced to shoot a fade-away, guarded closely by M. Bello (H). Scored.

4 10:46 73 — 73 P. Cuvelier (A) fakes before attempting a fade-away jumper with M. Bello (H) guarding him closely. Scored.

4 3:54 81 — 79 D. Meek (H) sparks the offense with a pass to B. Isom (H). B. Isom (H) shoots while falling back from the basket. Shot missed.

Amazing work, mate! Thumbs up!

Maybe as a next step you can distribute those shots by position. That (if at all possible) will be a huge breakthrough in terms of understanding the game engine. The usage of semi-blank lineups will probably make it nearly impossible though.

From what I`ve seen quite a lot of teams use it. It was used in the final game last season as well.

Holy Mother of All Things Good in this World!

I was following along in the Princeton thread and wishing there was something like for the other tactics. I've started to give Princeton a try based off those stats and currently going to try out Inside ISO tonight in my CUP.

I hope you continue the discussion in this thread. Looking forward to hearing everyone's thoughts. I had heard that Inside ISO ends up taking a good number of threes because of kickouts. My first look at these findings was to confirm that Inside ISO does indeed have a good share of the attempts being from beyond the arc, but surprisingly it's got a low rate of assisted attempts.

I'll have to review the other offenses to see how it really compares still, but it was surprising nonetheless.

Do you by chance happen to have the defense these offenses faced?

Yes for all games I both have the play by play (where there is no information on the tactics) and the boxscore, which I download through the BBApi. In the boxscore I get all kinds of information on tactics, GDP, effort etc.

I need the boxscore data both to check that the totals of the play by play are correct and to allocate the steals from one team to the players of the other team as turnovers, because the play by play does not track who gets stripped.

However as you can see from the following pic, boxscores in BBApi have all the info on the game and all the traditional stats:
http://tinypic.com/r/2emieer/9

There is both delta effort and (TIE vs CT = -2, Normal vs TIE = +1 etc), defense used and GDP focus and pace (N/A = not used GDP).

Last edited by Lemonshine at 4/19/2018 4:54:40 AM