Last time, we started this series of articles by simulating the 11/28 Hornets-Blazers game and in 10,000 simulations, we calculated an average score of 104-90 Portland. As it turned out, we were very close to the 101-86 final, correctly predicting that Brandon Roy would have a big game, as he did scoring 25 on 11-16 shooting. We also correctly predicted that David West would struggle to score against a stiff Portland interior defense, and he did scoring 10 points on 5-15 shooting. We thought Peja Stojakovic was the most likely player to lead the Hornets in scoring, and he did with 21 points. Our simulations suggested that Chris Paul would have a good, but not great game, (17 points, 10 assists). Paul ended up with 16 points and 6 assists. We also predicted that Portland would win the rebounding battle decisively with a 10-rebound edge, while their actual margin was +6.
For the Cavs-Hawks game
(http://www.buzzerbeater.com/BBWeb/reportmatch.aspx?MatchI...), we have the additional uncertainty of not knowing exactly who will be available to play tonight. We have run our simulations without Zydrunas Ilgauskas and Daniel Gibson, and might provide an update closer to tip-off if that changes. More importantly, while we know how our computerized coach will distribute their minutes, we don't really know how Mike Brown will do it.
For tonight's game, in 10,000 simulations we found that with both Ilgauskas and Gibson in the lineup, the Cavs won over 90% of simulations, by an average score of 98-85, so these two injuries might be a major factor. Big Z shot over 55% from the field and topped 20 PPG in our simulations, so we expect his loss to be significant.
Indeed, rerunning the simulations without Ilgauskas and Gibson, results in a much closer game. We still expect the Cavs to prevail, but now only 77% of the time and by an average score of 96-90. With Ilgauskas out of the lineup, we might have expected LeBron to take over the scoring load. However, in our simulations, we expect the Hawks to focus their defensive efforts on limiting LeBron, keeping him under his 26.9 PPG average 68% of the time. Unfortunately for the Hawks, other Cavs will step up and take advantage of the extra defensive attention. We expect a big game out of Mo Williams, who scores more than 20 points in 63% of our simulations and is the leading scorer for Cleveland nearly half of the time. Even though it's tempting to rely on their superstar given their injuries, surprisingly we find that the Cavs perform slightly better when LeBron takes fewer shots.
Our computerized coach thinks Anderson Varejao is likely to be the largest beneficiary of Ilgasuskas' injury. His playing time will increase significantly, playing more than his season average in 90% of the simulations. As such he will score more than usual and grab more rebounds than he usually does, scoring 12 or more in 76% of the simulations, and a 41% chance of getting into double digits in rebounds. Delonte West will see a smaller bump in his numbers, scoring an average of 15 points a game, up from the 11 he is averaging so far this season.
Although Z's absence makes the Cavs weaker offensively, it does strengthen their interior defense, and so we expect the Atlanta perimeter players to do better than they would have otherwise. Both Joe Johnson and Mike Bibby scored more in the simulations with the Cavalier injuries included. We expect Johnson to lead the way for the Hawks as he usually does, scoring more than 20 73% of the time and averaging 26. Mike Bibby should have an above average night, scoring more than his average of 15.8 80% of the time and more than 20 56% of the time, while still handing out 5 assists. When the Hawks do win, Johnson and Bibby have an incredible night, teaming up for an average of nearly 55 points in the simulations.