Buzzerbeater’s simulations predict that the Los Angeles Lakers will beat the San Antonio Spurs today by a healthy 8 point margin. After simulating the context 10,000 times, we found the Lakers to be victorious in 79% of the contests.
You can see an example game here
(http://www.buzzerbeater.com/BBWeb/reportmatch.aspx?matchI...)The Lakers success was based on its usual formula, with Kobe leading the way with an average of 28 points, and scoring more than 30 40% of the time. The rest of the Laker scoring is balanced in the mid teens, with Derek Fisher, Andrew Bynu, Pau Gasol and Vladimir Radmanovic all hitting double digits on average. In only 24% of the simulations did another Laker break the 20 point barrier. The Lakers should also dominate the boards by an average margin of 9.
For the Spurs, their loss will be because none of their superstars were able to break out and have a big game. Duncan will find it hard to score amongst the stiff interior defense of the Laker big men, averaging less than his 20 points 75% of the time. Similarly Tony Parker will be held to under 20 in a similar percentage of games. Sometimes Manu Ginobili breaks out and scores big points for the Spurs, but that is unlikely tonight, as Manu scores more than 20 in only 20% of the games. The one bright spot for the Spurs, is Roger Mason, who scores more than his average of 11 in 80% of the contests for an average of 17 points. He often ends up being the second highest scorer in the game, with one of the previously mention Spur stars taking the top spot. When you average over all the games, he ends up with the highest average point total, though we predict it unlikely he will lead the team in scoring in any particular instance. The Spurs also struggle to move the ball well, finishing under their average of 22 assists 65% of the time.
In the games in which the Spurs do win, they win because they get some combination of their two stars to score big points. In Spur wins, 2 out of the Duncan, Parker, Ginobili combination score more than 20 points 75% of the time. Also critical is limiting the Laker advantage on the boards, as they reduce the LA edge to just 4. They also pass the ball the ball better, finishing at or above their assist average 60% of the time.
Last edited by BB-Forrest at 1/25/2009 1:12:59 PM