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Interpretting game results (thread closed)

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7193.1
Date: 11/14/2007 4:22:32 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
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I was just getting to the point where I could rationalize the results of my games to the point where I could see logic in the game. Then last night's game came along and I wonder:

(1004706)

I'm not complaining about losing, I don't really care about this season's results. I simply want to get a feel for how to play the game. Now here is what I don't get:

1) Essentially each team had 5 guys play. I had a 6.0, 5.5, 5.0 and two 4.5. The other team had one 6.0, three 4.5s and a 4.0. They won by 17. How does the result of the game justify these ratings? Makes no sense.

2) On the team ratings, I was equal on the two defensive ratings, and better on the other four. Again, how does the result of the game justify these ratings?

3) I had 24 turnovers, he had 4. My offensive flow rating was higher. Why is this so, and what caused this disparity so I can fix it?

4) They had a guy play 1 minute and foul out. He committed 50% of their PFs What's with that?

My tentative conclusion is that this is random. But this a very bad conclusion for me in the sense that the random results of the game engine currently overwhelm the effects of any decisions I can make.

Put another way, if my decisions are so completely at the mercy of random die rolls that the game results don't make sense most of the time, then this game's ability to retain my interest is zero.

Again, I'm not complaining about losing, what I'm saying is that the results and reports don't make sense and don't provide useful information for making decisions.

EDIT: Edited in Match ID tag



Edited by GM-JuicePats (11/14/2007 4:32:14 PM CET)

Last edited by Your_Imaginary_Friend at 11/14/2007 4:32:14 PM

This Post:
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7193.2 in reply to 7193.1
Date: 11/14/2007 5:17:38 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
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Looking at the team ratings your teams look about equal, so I could realistically see the result going either way. I think you may have answered your own question somewhat in that the reason for the big difference in score was turnovers and to a lesser extent fouls.

Ratings wise both teams are about equal, but one team took a ton more shots due to turnovers and got to take more free throws so it would make sense that they would score more points. Turnovers are very important in basketball, it is very hard to overcome a disparity like the one in this game.

This Post:
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7193.3 in reply to 7193.2
Date: 11/14/2007 6:28:48 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
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>>Looking at the team ratings your teams look about equal, so I could realistically see the result going either way. I think you may have answered your own question somewhat in that the reason for the big difference in score was turnovers and to a lesser extent fouls.<<

Not my question at all. I understand basketball stats and their consequences. What I want answers to are the questions I actually asked, why did the game ratings contradict the game result?

As to T/Os, how could I get a slightly higher game flow rating than my opponent when I committed SIX TIMES AS MANY T/Os? That makes no sense to me.


This Post:
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7193.4 in reply to 7193.3
Date: 11/14/2007 6:43:14 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
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As a quick note, the guy with 6 PFs in one minute was, most likely, injured. The match viewer displays injured players as having fouled out. I'll try and give you a more in-depth analysis a little later...

This Post:
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7193.5 in reply to 7193.3
Date: 11/14/2007 6:44:51 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
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Well, I was saying that I don't think the game ratings contradict the result at all.

And as far as game flow, that is more a result of passing and how well your team executed the offensive game plan. Turnovers can be a result of bad passing or bad handling, or just good defense by the other team. Game flow does not correspond to turnovers.

This Post:
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7193.6 in reply to 7193.2
Date: 11/14/2007 6:48:08 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
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>>Ratings wise both teams are about equal,>>

Yes, and I can understand this was an upset win against me. That it was a route against me led me to think of two possibilities:

1) My team played liked Putrid Pieces of Pig Poop (PPPPs)

Answer: well, maybe three decent ratings, two PPPPs, so

2) The other team must have played very well.

Aghh!! They played even worse!! Lower ratings across the board!

How is it possible for my team to be slightly better than the other, play slightly better and get whipped by 17?

3) Turnovers.

Okay, that is the answer. 24 to 4 is huge. Why did this happen? My team must have thrown the ball around like drunken sailors:

Aghh!! my offensive flow was higher than my opponents!

So that's my predicament. I can see the stats. I can read the feedback (game ratings of players and teams). These don't align. So how do I correct this situation?
How do I apply the game's feedback to make meaningful decisions regarding my team?

This isn't isolated. I've looked at a huge chunk of games played in Season 3 in my division (last year had a different system, I'm led to believe, so that is no use) and perhaps one game in four or five leaves me scratching my head as to what the feedback ratings mean. By this I mean the player scores and the team ratings don't explain the result of the game.

I came in I'm favored (slight but true) and my guys played better, how can I have been blown out? A close loss would be random, but the feedback is not what I would have expected from a blowout loss.

Again, I'm not complaining about losing, I'm complaining about the feedback reports not explaining the result of the game by a wide margin.




Edited by Your_Imaginary_Friend (11/14/2007 6:50:36 PM CET)

Last edited by Your_Imaginary_Friend at 11/14/2007 6:50:36 PM

This Post:
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7193.7 in reply to 7193.6
Date: 11/14/2007 7:06:46 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
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Ok, for points 1&2, player rating are not meant to compare different players, it is a measure of how that player played compared to his own potential. If my star player gets a 6.0 and one of my scrubs gets a 7.0 in a certain game it doesn't mean the scrub was a better player, just that he fulfilled more of his potential in that game. Player rating is not for comparing different players.

For point 3, Offensive flow does not equal turnovers. Turnovers are not a major part of game ratings because they don't need to be. You don't need a rating system to tell you how many times you turned the ball over, it is right there in the box score.

I would say the feedback from this game explains the result perfectly, two teams shot the ball about equally well percentage wise, defended the areas of the court about equally, but one tem took over 20 more shots and over 10 more FT's due to turnovers and fouls, and thus they rightly won by a large margain.

This Post:
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7193.8 in reply to 7193.5
Date: 11/14/2007 7:08:40 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
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>>Well, I was saying that I don't think the game ratings contradict the result at all.

And as far as game flow, that is more a result of passing and how well your team executed the offensive game plan. Turnovers can be a result of bad passing or bad handling, or just good defense by the other team. Game flow does not correspond to turnovers.<<

Turnovers are a huge component of game flow. If my team is turning the ball over, whether by steals or stupid passes, I should not have a better game flow rating than my opponent, who did none of these.

If my rating is slightly better than my opponent who did not turnover the ball, I must have done something extremely right in order to earn that rating. What was it I did right? The feedback does not tell me that. I see nothing good. What am I missing that I did right?

This Post:
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7193.9 in reply to 7193.7
Date: 11/14/2007 7:12:51 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
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We're out of synch on our responses, and so I'll wait a bit before responding to your last post.

This Post:
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7193.10 in reply to 7193.8
Date: 11/14/2007 7:15:23 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
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Well first of all the difference between your offensive flow and your opponents is very small. Basically a third of a point on a 20 point scale. But I would say your offensive flow was better because your team shot better from the field. You made 41% of your shots while your opponent only made 37%. I would say the higher offensive flow shows that your team ran the offense a little bit better and got better shots. Unfortunately this was cancelled out by the other team taking a lot more shots.

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7193.11 in reply to 7193.10
Date: 11/14/2007 8:40:05 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
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>>I would say the higher offensive flow shows that your team ran the offense a little bit better and got better shots.>>

We DID NOT run our offense better. We turned it over SIX TIMES as often as they did.

If 'running the offense' does not have 'not turning the ball over' as a fundamental metric, then I'm at a complete loss to understand this.

If what you are saying is that 'when you weren't turning the ball over 24 times you ran your offense better than they did,' well that is nonsense. A bit like asking 'What did you think of the play, Mrs. Lincoln?"

I can't do anything with this information, if what you say is true. Its like saying, 'Other than the arrows in all your troopers, your battle plan was fine, General Custer."

Again, thanks for your comments. They simply aren't helping me to make sense of the game's feedback. Perhaps that's not possible right now. I do hope this thread is of use to the BB developers in highlighting what's frustrating right now.