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Ok we seem to be in agreement.

I was mostly referring more to the point that unguarded shots are 'defended' by team ratings (Trainerman's theory). ID rating is mostly (if not entirely) generated by ID, so if that theory is correct the more unguarded shots you face, the better it would be to have ID over SB (marginal value and marginal cost being equal, which they are not, but that's another discussion).

@Lemonshine:

I was mostly referring more to the point that unguarded shots are 'defended' by team ratings (Trainerman's theory). ID rating is mostly (if not entirely) generated by ID, so if that theory is correct the more unguarded shots you face, the better it would be to have ID over SB (marginal value and marginal cost being equal, which they are not, but that's another discussion).

OD and ID prevent open shots (that's what Trainerman calls team pressure or sth like that). That something I posted the first time four or five seasons ago. It's the defense against the players. With OD and ID you try to minimize the possible FG% for your opponent. During this time, OD and ID are more important than SB. That's what most of the teams play. But as soon as your opponent decides to shoot, you need SB. So you have actually three ways here:
1) go with ID>SB: you try to defend the player and don't give him a good shooting spot, the block isn't your aim
2) go with ID=SB: The kind of players I prefer and also have.
3) go with SB>ID: you leave your opponent more room to shoot and your main target is to block his shot. I think that's a dangerous option, because you could end up with given more open shots to your opponent because of the lack of ID

ID rating is mostly (if not entirely) generated by ID

The first part is right ;) ID rating is mostly generated from ID, but you need SB too. But not as much as ID.
From Charles:

Blocking does contribute to inside defense, but the much stronger effect is simply that some shots are blocked rather than becoming either made or missed.

From your other post:

If that's the case, the more flow the opponent has, the more OD and ID are important compared to SB?

YES! We have a winner. But now look at it from the other side. What do you need for a high flow? Passing. Why do you need it? To find open shots. And why don't we have a lot of open shots? Because OD and ID are far higher than PA. And because of this dilemma the FG%, especially for outside teams, is too low. The guards have to outplay OD 15+ players almost in every team from division 3 and higher.

@minde:

So, in this thread the ID is the skill as the SB is in the other ones.. [] like least important..

I don't think so. Like I wrote some line above, for me ID is as much important as SB. But you have to balance it. And it's also important to to look at your opponents.
During the traineing of my two guys something happend with them. I showed it to Manon, but I can't remember if he had the same "problem". Both my trainees had low foul numbers. I trained SB and ID and than the first one started fouling more and more. For around a half season. Than his fouls went down again. Next season the same thing happend to the other trainee. And it bothered me that I couldn't find out why. Until I compaired their skills and their opponents. When they reached ID 12+SB 12, they started to defend more shots. There ID was good enough to prefent open shots, but they weren't strong enough to minimize the possible FG%. And with their SB they tried to stop the shot and fouled. But both stopped with this when they reached ID 14 + SB 14. They still defendend the higher amount of shots, but they could block more of them and didn't foul. And their oppoents were most of the time IS 14-16 bigs.
Balance is everything.

This is interesting. Can you go deeper in this one?.
I've been here (in the dark) for a while (maybe since S7-9 in globa forums) and I think I've missed when BB stated that. Or it's based on your research?

Unfortunately no BB stated this. That was with a player from my team (DR 17 + HA 9). Curretnly I'm waiting for another try to look at this. In Utopia I have a C who has almost every game an offensive foul. But the sample is to low. Currently I have one players with a lot of offense fouls. 15 fouls, six of these 15 are offense fouls (40% and 0,75 offense fouls/game). To my surprise, this time it's the other way round: HA twice as high as DR. So maybe it works both ways round.
Another thing occured to me: if you play a fast offense, do you have a higher possibility of offense fouls?

Thanks

I don't know for sure. ID makes it harder to find a shooting spot inside the paint (and maybe close around it). But the main problem is: how exactly works a steal attempt inside the paint? Only OD, even for bigs? A combination of OD and ID and OD is more important? Or is ID more important? I would go with OD>>ID. The reason is that I have two bigs with similar ID and SB. One of them has OD 1 and the other one a lot more. And the one with more OD gets a lot of more steals. So even if ID is necessary, it has a really small influence.

I think it's probably all OD (or maybe OD + handling). Much like the players with 0 career assists and FT made, I am pretty sure I've run across players with 0 (or very few) lifetime steals. I suppose we couldn't know for sure if any ID is required unless we did tests with low level guys who were drafted maybe with strong OD and bare minimum ID, and had them defend big men, and I doubt that's useful enough information to make the test worth doing anyhow.

Point being~ We saw that open shots (or what we interpreted as such) can have lower fg% than guarded shots. We determined that team ratings (defense) of opponent impacted shooting % greatly, specifically unguarded shots.

Here I hope I understand your right. If not just say it.
Open shots (in the game viewer and also in mouthlinhos tool) have sometimes a lower fg% than defended shots. And you say now, that the "team defense" (OD and ID) is responsible for this. Correct?
If so, I agree. And I think I know why that's the case.
There is a very old post from Charles (I think it was saison 10) were he talked a little bit about the process of finding a shot. And in other posts he mentions how OD and SB works or how they should work in the GE. So the following is a summarize of the information.
We two play against each other. You choose a tactic, let's say Motion. For this tactic the GE has "bottem line FG%". I don't know how I should call it else. This FG% is important for every shot your players take. Your PG has the ball and starts the play. He finds a shooting place and the GE now compares his potential FG% for only this shot with the "bottom line FG%". For the GE it's important to take a good shot, which is above this bottom line. So let's say your PG has a potential FG% of 46.7%. Now, my PG comes to defend. His defense skills are extremly strong and he influences your player. The potential FG% drops from 46.7% to 29.3%. Now your player decides: shooting or passing! But how do you know if the pass is good? There is another calculation for passing, which is also influenced by OD ratings (OD+Stamina+ maybe sth else).
Now your PG has two options
1) he shoots with a potential FG% of 29.3%
2) he passes the ball to a player
Let's go further with 2). The pass is heavily disturbed by my def-PG but your PG finds your PF. But now your PF has a problem. The pass was bad and he finds himself in a bad shooting position. But he is free. Influeced by the bad pass of his PG and his own skills, his potential FG% is 25.6% in this shooting spot. The GE calls it an open play and your PF takes the shot. And you have an unguarded shot which is worser than a guarded one.
A higher PA from the PG would increase the FG% for this open shot. Everyone knows that OD got a boost in season 10, but almost everyone forgot that Charles switched from a "fast shooting GE" to a "slower and more passing relevant GE". I think you used mouthlinhos tool too. Did you see that almost every open shot which is made has an assist from a teammate? This assist/pass has a huge impact on the shot itself.

I read some of your post. I think you call it team defense rating. I don't call it that but I think we mean both the same. For you the team defense rating is a calculation of OD, ID, SB and Stamina, or? Because for me, these four skills are responsible for everything what happends during the time your team plays defense. So yes, maybe the name team defense is suitable.

In this case, once they shoot, wouldn't SB be a non-factor in the matchup, if the shot is open? Or are you disagreeing with this in your experience.

Yes, it's a non-factor here. The opponent is to far away to block the shot. So the shot is "open" but it doesn't mean it wasn't influenced by OD, ID and Stamina.

As far as SB goes, I believe it is a factor in team defense in two ways~
#1 I do believe it impacts team ID rating, and potentially alters opponent shot-selection
#2 I believe it is the primary help defense stat, and you can block shots of players you are not guarding, even in MtM

#1 yes, I think so to. And Charles said, that SB is a (small) part of the ID rating.
#2 here I have the same opinion. in m2m it occurs less than in zones, but it's still there. I would go with the following: "a help defense attempt is a SB attempt" (only here in the GE, not in real basketball)

Hi to everbody!

I try to find the right direction of my BB-adventure and I like the way you look at SB.
I read this and other threads. I wrote some BB-mail to Nachtmahr too. I wanna be a part of this family :D

It's the defense against the players. With OD and ID you try to minimize the possible FG% for your opponent. During this time, OD and ID are more important than SB. That's what most of the teams play. But as soon as your opponent decides to shoot, you need SB. So you have actually three ways here:
1) go with ID>SB: you try to defend the player and don't give him a good shooting spot, the block isn't your aim
2) go with ID=SB: The kind of players I prefer and also have.
3) go with SB>ID: you leave your opponent more room to shoot and your main target is to block his shot. I think that's a dangerous option, because you could end up with given more open shots to your opponent because of the lack of ID

[...]

Balance is everything.

I spent a lot of time thinking about ID and SB connection and I don't know if the lack of ID is a problem if you could block your opponent. Also if ID is not enought to avoid a shot, how the same level of SB could block it?

So, as all of you say, the opponent's IS goes against our defender's ID and this one "let him" shoot n fields goals attempts if ID=x.
Of course if ID=x-1 the opponent will shoot at least one more time: n+1. With ID=x+1 we'll see n-1 attempts or less. Or better we'll not see :)
Then our defender try to block that shot and if we have a similar level of SB we'll probably see the same % of shots blocked (because the same level of IS goes against the same level of SB) but more points against. Here a stupid example: 1 block every 4 attempts (=25%) and 6 pt but 2 blocks every 8 attempts (=25% again) and 12pt. And personal fouls could increase too (= more free throw attempts). Not good at all, but I don't think that with ID=x-1 the opponent is going to take 4 more attempts.
We can agree that more ID is better but ID is not cheaper than SB: 1 level of ID costs a little more than 2 levels of SB. It's true!
Now with ID=x-1 I have more space (both wage and potential) to give him 2 more level of SB and I have a player that will tend to block more shots. In the example he needs to produce 3 more blocks but I say I overrate the plus of shots.
With more SB our defender will be capable to block more shots and will commit less fouls even if his opponent try to face him more times. Again, he will tend to block but if he is capable to do that he will have more success and commits less fouls.

You are not fully convinced? Let me try one more time.
Less attempts, because of our defender's ID, mean less shots but the opponent could pass to another player for a similar attempt and maybe this one is facing to someone not good enought. So I want that opponent has to go again and again on my blockshoter turning all of his attacks into a sort of isolation. I convert his offensive tactics in patient (all the shot to only one man) and I know how to control him especially if this one is not the better opponent.

It make sense?

The way I understand it is that "team ID" will reduce the success probability of making open shots and "individual SB" will reduce the probability of making guarded shots. If you found a team on SB only, lacking OD or ID, you'll be very efficient in defending the guarded shots but also the number of open shots will go up (if you lack team OD) and their success percentages will go up (outside jump shots with low team OD and inside shots with low team ID).

So that tells you:
- (Team) OD is important regardless because stops passes and therefore open shots
- Between ID and SB it is unclear and we would need some data to make a decision. However, if the speculations above, on which we all seem to agree are correct, presumably the more OD you have the more relative value SB has over ID, because you will see less open shots and more guarded shots (saying relatively because the number of open shots might still be substantial). More correctly it is the balance between your own OD and the opponents ability to pass (Flow) that matters: if your OD>>opponent flow, SB is relatively more valuable; if your OD<opponent flow ID is relatively more valuable. I say relatively because we are not able to quantify the effects and have the absolute values.

Driving should enter the discussion too as that creates open shots too as I understand it.

At the moment there are too many variables we would need data on to have a definitive answer: (i.e. keeping tactics constant how many less open shots do you observe given team OD going from 9 to 10 or 10 to 11?; how much less likely are the open shots to succeed if the team OD or ID goes from 9 to 10 or 10 to 11?). The only data we can estimate somewhat (but it would still be not accurate enough) is how much more blocked shots you get from increased shot blocking. Nachtmar gave us an idea, but to have the full picture you need to quantify all these effects, not just the increased blocks.


Last edited by Lemonshine at 11/17/2014 1:09:52 PM

I spent a lot of time thinking about ID and SB connection and I don't know if the lack of ID is a problem if you could block your opponent. Also if ID is not enought to avoid a shot, how the same level of SB could block it?

Preventing a shot and blocking it are to different things. ID works against a couple of skills, the actual shooting position, the tactic etc. There are a lot of points which influence your player before he decides to take a shot. But SB will only work against the actual shot.

Then our defender try to block that shot and if we have a similar level of SB we'll probably see the same % of shots blocked (because the same level of IS goes against the same level of SB) but more points against. Here a stupid example: 1 block every 4 attempts (=25%) and 6 pt but 2 blocks every 8 attempts (=25% again) and 12pt. And personal fouls could increase too (= more free throw attempts). Not good at all, but I don't think that with ID=x-1 the opponent is going to take 4 more attempts.

You are missing a very important point here. SB alters shots. Your player could finish a game with 0 blks, but hold his opponent to 0-10 shots. The number of blocked shots isn't that important, it's the defensive benifit which counts. I have two bigs with a shot blocking ratio of 35%.
The first one has 5% shooting foul, 30% altered shots and 30% failed actions --> the opponent scored.
The second one has 0% shooting fouls, 53% altered shots and only 12% failed actions. You see, they have the same % of blocked shots but different impacts on my defense.

Now with ID=x-1 I have more space (both wage and potential) to give him 2 more level of SB and I have a player that will tend to block more shots. In the example he needs to produce 3 more blocks but I say I overrate the plus of shots.
With more SB our defender will be capable to block more shots and will commit less fouls even if his opponent try to face him more times. Again, he will tend to block but if he is capable to do that he will have more success and commits less fouls.

With less ID your player could end up defending less shots. He will be to slow/weak to defend his opponent which could result in open shots. It's true that your guy could block more shots if you give him +2 SB with -1 ID. But I would prefer a big which defends 15 shot attempts/game rather than one which only defends 10 shot/attempts/game.