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Hi to everbody!

I try to find the right direction of my BB-adventure and I like the way you look at SB.
I read this and other threads. I wrote some BB-mail to Nachtmahr too. I wanna be a part of this family :D

It's the defense against the players. With OD and ID you try to minimize the possible FG% for your opponent. During this time, OD and ID are more important than SB. That's what most of the teams play. But as soon as your opponent decides to shoot, you need SB. So you have actually three ways here:
1) go with ID>SB: you try to defend the player and don't give him a good shooting spot, the block isn't your aim
2) go with ID=SB: The kind of players I prefer and also have.
3) go with SB>ID: you leave your opponent more room to shoot and your main target is to block his shot. I think that's a dangerous option, because you could end up with given more open shots to your opponent because of the lack of ID

[...]

Balance is everything.

I spent a lot of time thinking about ID and SB connection and I don't know if the lack of ID is a problem if you could block your opponent. Also if ID is not enought to avoid a shot, how the same level of SB could block it?

So, as all of you say, the opponent's IS goes against our defender's ID and this one "let him" shoot n fields goals attempts if ID=x.
Of course if ID=x-1 the opponent will shoot at least one more time: n+1. With ID=x+1 we'll see n-1 attempts or less. Or better we'll not see :)
Then our defender try to block that shot and if we have a similar level of SB we'll probably see the same % of shots blocked (because the same level of IS goes against the same level of SB) but more points against. Here a stupid example: 1 block every 4 attempts (=25%) and 6 pt but 2 blocks every 8 attempts (=25% again) and 12pt. And personal fouls could increase too (= more free throw attempts). Not good at all, but I don't think that with ID=x-1 the opponent is going to take 4 more attempts.
We can agree that more ID is better but ID is not cheaper than SB: 1 level of ID costs a little more than 2 levels of SB. It's true!
Now with ID=x-1 I have more space (both wage and potential) to give him 2 more level of SB and I have a player that will tend to block more shots. In the example he needs to produce 3 more blocks but I say I overrate the plus of shots.
With more SB our defender will be capable to block more shots and will commit less fouls even if his opponent try to face him more times. Again, he will tend to block but if he is capable to do that he will have more success and commits less fouls.

You are not fully convinced? Let me try one more time.
Less attempts, because of our defender's ID, mean less shots but the opponent could pass to another player for a similar attempt and maybe this one is facing to someone not good enought. So I want that opponent has to go again and again on my blockshoter turning all of his attacks into a sort of isolation. I convert his offensive tactics in patient (all the shot to only one man) and I know how to control him especially if this one is not the better opponent.

It make sense?

The way I understand it is that "team ID" will reduce the success probability of making open shots and "individual SB" will reduce the probability of making guarded shots. If you found a team on SB only, lacking OD or ID, you'll be very efficient in defending the guarded shots but also the number of open shots will go up (if you lack team OD) and their success percentages will go up (outside jump shots with low team OD and inside shots with low team ID).

So that tells you:
- (Team) OD is important regardless because stops passes and therefore open shots
- Between ID and SB it is unclear and we would need some data to make a decision. However, if the speculations above, on which we all seem to agree are correct, presumably the more OD you have the more relative value SB has over ID, because you will see less open shots and more guarded shots (saying relatively because the number of open shots might still be substantial). More correctly it is the balance between your own OD and the opponents ability to pass (Flow) that matters: if your OD>>opponent flow, SB is relatively more valuable; if your OD<opponent flow ID is relatively more valuable. I say relatively because we are not able to quantify the effects and have the absolute values.

Driving should enter the discussion too as that creates open shots too as I understand it.

At the moment there are too many variables we would need data on to have a definitive answer: (i.e. keeping tactics constant how many less open shots do you observe given team OD going from 9 to 10 or 10 to 11?; how much less likely are the open shots to succeed if the team OD or ID goes from 9 to 10 or 10 to 11?). The only data we can estimate somewhat (but it would still be not accurate enough) is how much more blocked shots you get from increased shot blocking. Nachtmar gave us an idea, but to have the full picture you need to quantify all these effects, not just the increased blocks.


Last edited by Lemonshine at 11/17/2014 1:09:52 PM

I spent a lot of time thinking about ID and SB connection and I don't know if the lack of ID is a problem if you could block your opponent. Also if ID is not enought to avoid a shot, how the same level of SB could block it?

Preventing a shot and blocking it are to different things. ID works against a couple of skills, the actual shooting position, the tactic etc. There are a lot of points which influence your player before he decides to take a shot. But SB will only work against the actual shot.

Then our defender try to block that shot and if we have a similar level of SB we'll probably see the same % of shots blocked (because the same level of IS goes against the same level of SB) but more points against. Here a stupid example: 1 block every 4 attempts (=25%) and 6 pt but 2 blocks every 8 attempts (=25% again) and 12pt. And personal fouls could increase too (= more free throw attempts). Not good at all, but I don't think that with ID=x-1 the opponent is going to take 4 more attempts.

You are missing a very important point here. SB alters shots. Your player could finish a game with 0 blks, but hold his opponent to 0-10 shots. The number of blocked shots isn't that important, it's the defensive benifit which counts. I have two bigs with a shot blocking ratio of 35%.
The first one has 5% shooting foul, 30% altered shots and 30% failed actions --> the opponent scored.
The second one has 0% shooting fouls, 53% altered shots and only 12% failed actions. You see, they have the same % of blocked shots but different impacts on my defense.

Now with ID=x-1 I have more space (both wage and potential) to give him 2 more level of SB and I have a player that will tend to block more shots. In the example he needs to produce 3 more blocks but I say I overrate the plus of shots.
With more SB our defender will be capable to block more shots and will commit less fouls even if his opponent try to face him more times. Again, he will tend to block but if he is capable to do that he will have more success and commits less fouls.

With less ID your player could end up defending less shots. He will be to slow/weak to defend his opponent which could result in open shots. It's true that your guy could block more shots if you give him +2 SB with -1 ID. But I would prefer a big which defends 15 shot attempts/game rather than one which only defends 10 shot/attempts/game.

You are missing a very important point here. SB alters shots. Your player could finish a game with 0 blks, but hold his opponent to 0-10 shots.

Yeah in my post i didn't clarify this, but we agree that by successful individual shot defense, we all mean the opponent missing on a guarded shot, be it a block, an altered shot>miss or a straightforward guarded shot>miss (I'm not totally convinced that ID has no impact at all on this last case, it might be something like the impact of SB on the team ID rating, but I'm happy to go with Nachtmahr indications on this).

With less ID your player could end up defending less shots. He will be to slow/weak to defend his opponent which could result in open shots. It's true that your guy could block more shots if you give him +2 SB with -1 ID. But I would prefer a big which defends 15 shot attempts/game rather than one which only defends 10 shot/attempts/game.

This is the trade-off that would be interesting to measure at a given level of OD vs Flow. Then if we have a rough idea of how much an extra point in ID increases the successful defense (by reducing the unguarded shot overall number) and how much SB does the same (by reducing the FG% on guarded shots), we could have a much better idea of what builds are preferable. Granted, SB also gives a small contribution to reducing the number of unguarded shots too, trains probably faster, it's cheaper in the salary formula and it should become increasingly beneficial at higher OD levels.

One thing I noted is that even when OD is much higher than PA (like tremendous vs proficient in the B3) you still have high numbers of assists (like 20+). This could be explained with the fact that the open shots are less overall (compared to a prominent vs strong), but players hit them at a higher clip. It is slightly puzzling, though.

Last edited by Lemonshine at 11/17/2014 4:12:13 PM

Yeah OD and ID are the "first step" about defense. Without them... you see Lakers defense? :D
I don't want kill ID but I like to find a good compromise between ID and SB.

In fact my thought started after the decision to try the shot (OD+ID+Stamina have already worked), in particular a shot in the paint, and after that the opponent flow, contrasted by my OD, carry the ball into shooter's hands. This one doesn't pass the ball and believe that he has good chances to make 2 points. Here comes SB. Maybe SB is counted into the Inside Defense Ratings but it's another story.

As you say, if ID is high that shot (if taken) will be guarded or it will be a very difficult shot to do. If ID is not enought we'll see an open shot. SB is more useful with guarded shot because to block an open shot we need someone like Dhalsim!

With an X level of ID (helped by OD + Stamina) my defender allows 15 attempt for example and taking the Nachtmahr's data he will block or alter (same results=no points) 2/3 of the attempts. For 5 times the opponent will make point and/or will go to the line.
With the same opponent's IS and the same defender's SB but with less ID (helped by the same OD + Stamina) we'll see more attempts. I swear, I talk only 1 level less. Maybe my defender will fight against not 15 but 18 (21?) FGA. And he will blocks/alters always 2/3 of them: now the opponent will find the rim 6 (7?) times.
What I say is that 2 more levels of SB probably will work better and block/alter that 1 (2?) other shot(s).

Why this suicide?
Because the opponent team will give more attempt to that man (as I say above a sort of iso) taking away the same number of attempts from other guys. And I do this because my defender, that has more SB, know what he has to do. Like a trap!

Preventing with ID. Work on the shot with SB . I tattoo this on my arm :D

Yeah, my bad. SB not only blocks the shots but works to limit the damage.
Using your data (your first big) we can say that if the opponent takes 20 FGA he will go 6 times to the rim and 1 time to the for two FT. With more ID the opponent will have less FGA. Is this ok?

I agree that with less ID my player will prevents less shot. And this is the point: more FTA for the opponent (and less for his teammates) but more power to blocks or alters those "bonus" shots.
Maybe what I've not understand is why he will give more open shots (=easy points).

With less ID your player could end up defending less shots. He will be to slow/weak to defend his opponent which could result in open shots. It's true that your guy could block more shots if you give him +2 SB with -1 ID. But I would prefer a big which defends 15 shot attempts/game rather than one which only defends 10 shot/attempts/game.

This is the trade-off that would be interesting to measure at a given level of OD vs Flow. Then if we have a rough idea of how much an extra point in ID increases the successful defense (by reducing the unguarded shot overall number) and how much SB does the same (by reducing the FG% on guarded shots), we could have a much better idea of what builds are preferable. Granted, SB also gives a small contribution to reducing the number of unguarded shots too, trains probably faster, it's cheaper in the salary formula and it should become increasingly beneficial at higher OD levels.

Yeah mate! This is the focal point of my idea. In the same match does it work better a 15/15 ID/SB or a 14/17?

With more ID the opponent will have less FGA. Is this ok?

With Nachtmahr and Trainerman explanations I believe that the open shot FG% depends on the shooting ability of the player and the defensive "team rating". Apparently if you have a C with 15 IS taking an open inside shot, he will score at a much higher percentage if he's facing an ID "team defense" of 10 rather than an ID "team defense" of 6. How much more I don't know, but individual ID on big men is the main contributor to this inside "team defence" (which is described in the team ratings in the boxscore), SB contibutes too, but much less.

So on top of keeping the opponent away from their paint and preventing open shots, ID should also reduce the open shot FG% when that is not successful.

Further, if theoretically you have 2 big men with 20 ID and 4 SB, you would not be in an ideal situation. Your high team ID rating will be extremely high, so the percentage of open inside shots faced will be low, but you won't have the SB to be successful in guarding those shots.

If conversely you have 7 ID and 20 SB, you also won't be in a great situation: lots of open shots where your monster SB won't help.

I can see why Nachtmahr is saying he likes to keep it close. Without being able to quantify the effects it's impossible to say whether 17-17 is better than 16-18 or 18-16. We know that SB is faster and cheaper to build though, so even if 18-16 was more efficient ultimately you might be better off with 17-17 from a training perspective.

In order to assess all this we'd need data to run regressions on the various skills, so that we can estimate how much they contribute to the ratings and to the statistics (meaningful statistics such as open shots FG%, guarded shot FG%). Something like this (for ratings) must have been done for the coefficients included in Coach Parrot. It requires large amounts of data, especially because in our case it would be best if both the offensive player stats and the defensive player stats (at least the differentials plus the team ratings which are always available) in the sample were known.

Last edited by Lemonshine at 11/17/2014 8:25:27 PM

So in general OD and ID are most important for shot selection and what works out to be open shots, but I wouldn'T say SB is a complete non-factor.

That's what Nachtmahr said too, quoting BB-Charles. We all agree that SB also influences shot selection although not nearly as much as ID.

So guys, I show you something which is exactly what we discuss here: team defense (OD/ID), the amount of defended shots and SB.
For the last five seasons I played with a strong OD (OD 14-17) line up on PG, SG and SF. And as a C I had Sutherland.

season 24: Sutherland defended 11.9 shots/game
season 25: Sutherland defended 14.8 shots/game
season 26: Sutherland defended 12.7 shots/game (here I played with a OD 11 SF for the whole season)
season 27: Sutherland defended 14 shots/game
season 28: Sutherland defended 15.3 shots/game (wih 136 blks in 25 games, nr. 1 in BB)

and now this season after I sold my OD guys and have only one of them left.
season 29: Sutherland defends 10.1 shots/game

He's playing the same minutes, has almost the same blocking rate (30-35%) and shooting foul rate (6-10%). My opponents are the same. So there was no big change.
But because of the lack of OD on two of my first three positions there are more open shots for my opponents. They can exploit my current OD weakness and pass the ball to open players. During season 24-28 I hold my opponents to 10-12 assists per game. This season it's up to 15. That's a raise of 20-50%.
And here we are back again at the starting point. You have to balance your team. I have one of the best in-the-paint defenders but I can't use him effectively because of his teammates. And it wouldn't help me if Sutherland has ID 20 and SB 20. One guy can't control the whole defense...