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To me the game is suspicious because the vast majority of the 3 pointers were guarded (by the OD I mentioned). It seems like we may have a similar effect to the 3pt FG% at the C position where the FG% is higher for guarded shots than open looks (because open looks are defended based on team defense which is usually a lot higher than a C OD).

The only problem is that it happens to positions where the OD is actually higher than the team rating (as demonstrated by the number of steals). This is important because it would mean that counterintuitively lower flow may result in higher efficiency.

If no changes have been done then we'll need to investigate further and it may well be a random outlier, but it would be great to know if what you say is confirmed:

As far as I know, the last review was announced and nothing was changed after that.

Last edited by Lemonshine at 11/16/2016 8:25:37 AM

ecause open looks are defended based on team defense which is usually a lot higher than a C OD

True interest : where does this come from ? Analysis from patient game with a guard at center ? You have statistics for that ?

This has been reported and debated over and over. You're a supporter, I don't need to tell you how to use the search function or google. I'm surprised that someone like you never heard of this before.

Let's just say that a C with low JS/JR facing a C with 1 OD and a team rating of 12 has very different results in open and guarded shots. It does not show up that much in patient with a guard offsetting a C as you'd assume that a C with 1 OD will not be able to stay with a guard outside the paint and most of the shots will not be defended.

Last edited by Lemonshine at 11/16/2016 10:40:57 AM

What are your 176 games ? French D2 now and ten seasons ago ? It is a good start for data collecting (way better than one game lol), but statistical deviation and uncertainties must still be computed ;) Try to avoid league with too much tankers as it could corrupt the information.

Don't cop out and own it please. If I have to do the work, I'd like you to be fair.

Well it is strange to see you criticize my offer for 176 games study while basing first your demand on one extreme game lol. But I will take that as a victory that you change from 1 game sample to 176 games with a serious methodology

I criticise it because you talk about doing a statistical exercise and in order to do that, you'd need more information and more data points. 176 games is not a great sample. An NBA season has 1230 games. I never meant my points to have a statistical foundation, I always treated it as an outlier, but something it shouldn't happen in a game based on RNG where a 0 FT shooter has exactly 0 career FTM.

So once again, if the game is an outlier (i.e. Marin hasn't done anything in the last couple of seasons in respect of 3pt FG% or GDP effect) then it's one hell of an outlier. If it isn't then I think it's fair we know what changes have been made.

Just to be sure, you claim that both open 3s and contested 3s have increased in 3FG% or only contested 3s ?

I'm claiming that unassisted and mostly guarded 3s went in at a 80% rate through 3 quarters. I'm claiming that there is a very high correlation between assists and 3pt FG% in real life and it should be the same in BB. A team with very few assists shouldn't be able to score at that clip. 26% assist rate is about half of each and every NBA game you linked.

Last edited by Lemonshine at 11/16/2016 11:03:42 AM

Why y'all discussing RL probabilities? This is no NBA simulation. Your discussion is beyond useless.
I almost feel triggered to throw in my usual 0% FT or 0 assists rant.

However I feel that a rare occurence of streaky outside shooting does not hurt, although some boxscores have looked fishy to me. If this seems to be a bigger issue I might dig them out.