I like the idea of expectations - and I think (long term) it could be expressed in form of media previews. i.e. Your PR guy could provide you a report before each game, indicating supporter expectations.
"Local media outlets predict we will win by 6-10 points"
It is then up to you to meet or beat the expectations - and if you beat them there is a reward in terms of increased merchandising sales/season tickets/fan attendance for the next home game. TV games could be even more important magnifying effects by 50%. If you win anyway, but don't beat the spread, then there's no real downside - you've won, and that's what counts at the end of the day.
But if you lose a game you were expected to win (i.e. because you've TIEd) then the penalties then kick in.
If the expectation is that you will lose by 1-5 and lose by significantly more then 75% of the penalty could apply. If expectations is lose 6-10 and it's signifcantly more than 50% of the penalty could apply.
To get round the new team problem, if the expectation is that you will lose by more than say 10 points, then no penalty applies no matter how many you lose by - because the fans were expecting a hammering anyway.
It would take a good deal of trialling to get it to get the right parameters but once they've been worked out, I think it's workable.
The skill of your PR guy could influence how much leeway you have at missing expectations.
For instance with PR<5, you better get within, say, three points of the suggested spread (or beat expectations). For every rank above that, you get a point more leeway.
It would help make the impact of PR officers more visible. Any thoughts? (Preferably not 'It ain't gonna happen')