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No Cup Home Games? Post here

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163240.15 in reply to 163240.14
Date: 11/12/2010 12:29:12 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
4040
Well, on average they balance out, but you're not so much interested in the average as you are interested in your team.

Well, I do have a personal bias for what's happened with my team in particular, but to say on average it balances out is to say there's as many teams without home games through 6 rounds as there are with at least 1 home game, and I think it's fair to say that's not the case. So I wouldn't say it balances out, but rather that there are anomalies. And while I'll admit that probability does result in anomalies, I would like to see some work done to try and avoid anomalies as much as possible, so something like this doesn't happen.
@Edju, sorry for jumping the gun on you. I unfairly inferred you were being defensive because I was calling into question the game mechanics. Yes, I will readily admit from my time in BB that you guys are pretty responsive to suggestions from the community.

This Post:
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163240.17 in reply to 163240.16
Date: 11/12/2010 4:44:24 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
4040
By the 6th round in the US, there are 256 teams left. So if there's a 1 in 64 chance of playing in your 6th straight road game, this means there should be approximately 4 out of those 256 teams playing in their 6th straight road game, right? Or do I not have the math right? (Seriously, I haven't done stats in ages)
If that's correct, then I'd say that's more an anomaly than balanced odds. And for the sake of clarity, I may have talked in other threads about the expanded format in the US this season, and the inclusion of bots in the draw, but this particular thread has dealt only with the probability of not playing a home game for what is now 6 straight rounds. Weighting teams more heavily if they haven't played at home yet would help improve their odds so that hopefully teams that survive this long would have played at least 1 home game by now.

This Post:
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163240.18 in reply to 163240.17
Date: 11/12/2010 5:39:19 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
1111
I believe he meant that on the tournament as a whole it balances out. There's the same chance that 4 people got super lucky and will have had 6 games at home in the tournament. I myself have had 3 home games and 3 road games.

I understand and somewhat sympathize with your concerns and issues regarding the situation. And your suggestion does have some merit to it. The issue, however, is that no one else seems to have a problem with how the tournament is structured. It's just very unlikely the BBs are going to change something that 99% of the community doesn't seem to view as a problem. Just my 2 cents.

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This Post:
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163240.20 in reply to 163240.17
Date: 11/13/2010 2:41:42 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
13361336
I would draw 6 weaker teams away rather than 1 stronger team at home. Cup works as intended. We could argue about the league schedule though. Drawing 4 better teams from the other side as an away game, when your closest competition get's to face them all at home. Now there's something to ponder about. Still as the draw is random and teams can change during the season -> so it's all fair.