i was wrong... sagan can win in the flat out sprint! That crash really tore the peleton to shreds, and with Griepel injured, Sagan was to strong.
I think Green Edge's tactics are wrong.. They are trying to control the peleton for the sprint from to far out, and by the time they get to start the sprint they are shot and Goss is looking to grab another wheel.
Tonights finish is probably tougher than i first thought, it will be a real test for Sagan to be amongst it at the end, but with his mountain bike back ground, i would expect him to be there or there abouts.
It is the perfect stage for guys like Voeckler, Gilbert, Valverde,, ALbasini to have a crack at a stage win.. There are alot of big names (like those above) who have lost signifigant time up until this point, so i would expect to see a hell of a lot of attacking in this stage, as some of these guys attempt to salvage their tours with a Stage Win!
There should be a new wearer of the Yellow Jersey by the end of todays stage i would think.
If all things were equal, Valverde/Voeckler would be my 2 top tips for tonight, but injuries could hold them back, so my tip goes to Gilbert or Sagan.