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Declining Market

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53135.14 in reply to 53135.13
Date: 10/9/2008 2:58:20 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
1919
Clearly BB is responsible for the global financial crisis. The reckless regulation of top division income has brought the cash flow to its knees. Agent fees must be slashed to stimulate activity and save our economy. This is a global issue that needs to be confronted globally.

(isnt it odd that the only thing governments can agree on is the need for money?)

Disclaimer:this was a joke, this was only a joke, in case this were a political statement, I would expect to be tarred, feathered, and drug through the streets of a random Somalian town.

Accept that some days you are the pigeon and some days you are the statue. Dilbert
This Post:
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53135.17 in reply to 53135.15
Date: 10/9/2008 3:23:13 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
576576
What made it dramatic was mentioning the 1 million current bids, which are clearly not indicative about the final sale price. But I digress.


Top players that go for mulit-millions tend to run a lot higher then 1m when they are less then half a day from closing. Sorry you failed to comprehend this properly.

Last edited by brian at 10/9/2008 3:24:25 PM

"Well, no ones gonna top that." - http://tinyurl.com/noigttt
This Post:
00
53135.19 in reply to 53135.16
Date: 10/9/2008 3:40:39 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
1919
My middling responses to your questions.

1) Your job is to establish the formula for how much each team makes in each division depending on how well they perform in their league. Arena expansion should really only be able to do so much, eventually there should be a cap on how many people are going to go to a game regardless of how well a team does and how big their stadium is. The costs of players will be regulated on its own once income is regulated, you guys did a great job bringing things back into balance. With players not being near their training caps and their salary reflecting this, top teams were making huge advances over the rest of their leagues and countries and this needed to be put into check.

2) The sudden drop in income and resulting player value due to lack of available cash is just what the dr ordered. I overpaid for a player now because of the sudden change but it penalized teams willing to pay crazy sums the most, these were the ones needing to have cash removed from their pockets.

3) The game engine needs to start looking stable and stop moving around a couple times a season as it seems to do now. You can't plan your team if the way teams behave is constantly changing. Those changes need to be announced so that teams can change their plan and be given advance notice on that kind of tweak.

To borrow a friends usual sign off and adjust it to reflect current times, thats just my two cents and they are probably American.

Accept that some days you are the pigeon and some days you are the statue. Dilbert
This Post:
00
53135.20 in reply to 53135.15
Date: 10/9/2008 3:48:40 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
1919
A triple 11 player is indeed not enough to get the job done in most top leagues where players have the most income and spend the most to improve their teams. That quality is more D2 or D3.

Also something to note as far as players not getting bids is the number of high quality players recently botified releasing their players as free agents. These players are starting to suck millions out of the economy each week.

Accept that some days you are the pigeon and some days you are the statue. Dilbert
This Post:
00
53135.21 in reply to 53135.16
Date: 10/9/2008 3:51:37 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
576576
Just to clarify, it wasn't my intention for this thread to be bashing session on the BB's and the economic changes last season. Mostly, I'm wondering what other's views are on prices and where they are going. Maybe this is hitting higher level players harder then mid/lower ones.

Is it our job to allow both, but keep them within certain bounds? Is it our job simply to keep competitive balance?


Competitive balance is probably most important. Inflation and deflation will happen, but extreme changes can have an effect on competitive balance. IMO, the only major issue with the economic changes from last season is they were so drastic. Someone that invested in a player last season could have waited less then half a season and likely purchased two for the same price today.

2) Under what circumstances should we act without much prior notice? For that matter, how much notice is appropriate typically for different changes?


I'm not sure more notice would have changed anything. As soon as I read the changes I run some numbers and figured "whatever I'm spending on player now should be half of what the player was worth before I heard about the changes". I'd have reacted the same way if i knew the same changes were happening in in 12 days or 12 weeks.

3) How important is it to keep a constant set of rules? There is always a tradeoff between an ability to solve problems and an ability to keep the ruleset constant and let teams make long-term plans.


All managers should expect things will change and that from time to time you will need to adapt to be successful. Though, IMO, it's top priority for major changes to be implemented with notice and done gradually. I'm guessing that most would prefer longer period of slower deflation over a drastic shorter period.

Mostly, I'm just curious of if/when prices have bottomed out, and I usually only look at one section of the market (higher end players).



Last edited by brian at 10/9/2008 3:52:53 PM

"Well, no ones gonna top that." - http://tinyurl.com/noigttt
This Post:
00
53135.22 in reply to 53135.18
Date: 10/9/2008 4:00:11 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
576576
Half a day is often enough to get the price of a player doubled. Again, early bids might be an indication of value, but they're an imprecise one at best.


At any point last season, I doubt there was a time you could punch in that same search on the TL and not see mutliple multi-million dollar bids. It wasn't supposed to be an indication of value, but an sign that certain trends in the market have drastically changed.

"Well, no ones gonna top that." - http://tinyurl.com/noigttt
This Post:
00
53135.23 in reply to 53135.16
Date: 10/9/2008 4:57:37 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
1919
1) What should be the role of the BB team in the economy? Is it our job to prevent inflation and deflation? Is it our job to allow both, but keep them within certain bounds? Is it our job simply to keep competitive balance, but to ignore market fluctuations as long as that balance is not threatened?

2) Under what circumstances should we act without much prior notice? For that matter, how much notice is appropriate typically for different changes?

3) How important is it to keep a constant set of rules? There is always a tradeoff between an ability to solve problems and an ability to keep the ruleset constant and let teams make long-term plans.

My thoughts:

1) I agree with brianjames that the goal should be to keep the competitive balance. To do so, the BB's should ensure that the rate of inflation is a predictable known quantity - this probably could best be done by inflation targeting (picking a certain rate of inflation and tailoring the rules or payouts to account to effectuate this). It is hard to imagine a situation where inflation or deflation would not throw off the competitive balance, as windfalls will surely be enjoyed by certain teams in those circumstances.

2) Generally, a half a season would probably provide sufficient time to respond - obviously, the more notice, the better for big changes. Probably the best technique is to provide possible thoughts on future direction as you did by estimating the new tax rates for next season. While not held to that, it gives teams sufficient notice to prepare for that possibility.

3) Rules should evolve to make the game better, while at the same time, ensuring the competitive balance. New ideas should continually be implemented. With sufficient notice of future directions, teams should be able to plan accordingly.

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