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draft player chances

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165528.15 in reply to 165528.14
Date: 12/5/2010 12:29:06 AM
Overall Posts Rated:
5151

Well, if youre scouting by baseline rankings, the lower the baseline rankings go, the less chance you're supposed to have of getting 5, so the percentage would still decrease.

But I still think you're lucky.

I think the BB's try to make this game as realistic as possible (without making it too difficult or complicated), so the really great draftees will be rarer than the good/mediocre/etc. draftees.

Edit: and when you say 2 5-balls out of 10, do you mean "2 5-ball star ratings out of 10 star ratings" or "2 potential ratings out of 10 potential ratings" or a combination of the two?

Last edited by j9s3 at 12/5/2010 12:33:42 AM

This Post:
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165528.16 in reply to 165528.11
Date: 12/5/2010 12:38:20 AM
Overall Posts Rated:
5151

Even if my starting projections are a little off, I expect the chance of each individual player to be optimal to be somewhere between 1 and 2%, and probably closer to 2. That gives overall chances of such a player being in the draft somewhere between 62% and 38%, so basically, the chance of having such a player in the draft is around 50%, and arguably a little higher.


and it wouldnt be 38%, you forgot that the 1% would be multiplied twice (once for star rating, once for potential)
so as i said earlier, it would be:

1 - (.5*.1*.1) = .995
0.995 ^ 48 = .786
1- .786 = .214

So 21.4% chance of there being such a player - significantly lower than "a little above 50%"


This Post:
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165528.17 in reply to 165528.15
Date: 12/5/2010 6:21:45 AM
Overall Posts Rated:
205205
2 5-ball star rankings out of 10. haven't scouted enough guys twice to say anything useful about potential yet.

This Post:
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165528.18 in reply to 165528.17
Date: 12/5/2010 1:29:51 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
1818
i have just found at my draft list a beast:D 18 years old, 5balls skills A+, 5balls potencial, 6.2 height, pozition pf:D this is gona be excellent sg/pg with very good secondary skills after some time of training.

Last edited by juscious at 12/5/2010 1:30:13 PM

This Post:
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165528.19 in reply to 165528.18
Date: 12/5/2010 6:20:24 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
205205
Hint: your league concurrents can read this, too ;)

From: j9s3

This Post:
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165528.20 in reply to 165528.18
Date: 12/5/2010 7:44:37 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
5151
Nice! What was its baseline ranking?

Edit: By "its", i mean "his" (unless its a woman on steroids :P)

Last edited by j9s3 at 12/5/2010 7:45:22 PM

From: juscious

To: j9s3
This Post:
00
165528.21 in reply to 165528.20
Date: 12/6/2010 9:42:26 AM
Overall Posts Rated:
1818
if u mean baseline ranking as grey balls before scouting 3:D

This Post:
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165528.22 in reply to 165528.19
Date: 12/6/2010 9:44:15 AM
Overall Posts Rated:
1818
first of all bots cant read,
second i dont think other 2 human managers in my league can understand english at all:)

This Post:
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165528.23 in reply to 165528.22
Date: 12/6/2010 11:40:28 AM
Overall Posts Rated:
205205
well, then go ahead. Perhaps you're lucky and they don't find him and the bots pass on him =)

From: j9s3

This Post:
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165528.24 in reply to 165528.22
Date: 12/6/2010 2:54:24 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
5151
Good luck on that! :)

As an update, I scouted two more 4-ball baseline ranked players today, resulting in a 2-ball star rating and a 3-ball star rating. Still unlucky...

From: j9s3

To: j9s3
This Post:
00
165528.25 in reply to 165528.24
Date: 12/13/2010 7:35:48 AM
Overall Posts Rated:
5151
another 2-star and another 3-star...