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18 years old for sale

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201834.15 in reply to 201834.13
Date: 11/9/2011 6:00:44 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
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What do you think. Is the NBA draft a sure thing or is there a bit of luck involved? You can give some examples after choosing either one of those answers.

Can we keep it real? No one cares about "a bit of luck".
Spending no money on draft and catching a legend 18yo selling him at 2M is not "a bit" of luck. It's just stupid random.

This draft system has to be fixed. As a lot of people have been demanding for ages.

Last edited by Biffo (*DT Member) at 11/9/2011 6:01:32 PM

This Post:
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201834.16 in reply to 201834.14
Date: 11/9/2011 6:50:08 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
13361336
It was ment for Biffo. I messed up choosing receiver.

This Post:
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201834.17 in reply to 201834.14
Date: 11/9/2011 6:50:30 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
959959
I didn't see a player who had been worth X in the NBA got fife times his value on another team.


the salary stay the same ;) And NBA players don't progress with that speed, but franchise also measure talent versus skill differently.

Last edited by CrazyEye at 11/9/2011 6:50:54 PM

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201834.18 in reply to 201834.15
Date: 11/9/2011 6:56:45 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
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So what you are saying is. You can pick that best player (without spending on draft) over a guy (who is spending money on draft) 99%?, 75%?, 50%, 25%, 10%, 1% of a time. What is your educated guess? Is this really a problem. In what league has this happened? How often has this happened?
I would say a player investing about 140k in draft will pick a better player 99% of the time, even if he is picking second, after the blind drafter.

From: CrazyEye

This Post:
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201834.19 in reply to 201834.18
Date: 11/9/2011 6:58:38 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
959959
I would say a player investing about 140k in draft will pick a better player 99% of the time, even if he is picking second, after the blind drafter.


pure random gives you 2% over someone who knows all, since he won't know all i think it is closer to 10%(which means there are 3-4 players better then the best draft the guy who invested know in it) even when the chanche to get a jewel blind is around the 2% from the first draft position.

Last edited by CrazyEye at 11/9/2011 7:00:40 PM

From: Kukoc

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201834.20 in reply to 201834.19
Date: 11/9/2011 7:18:05 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
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We can cut out the 19yo-s as they will get outtrained by 18yo-s in one season easily. So that leaves us about half a draft of 18yo-s to get info from. With 140k you get to know atleast all 18yo-s player rating. Sure with one pick he would have a 2% chance to pick the best player. But if we are looking at it exponentially drafting the same draft 48 times. He might never hit the best player. His chance would be 0.02 in the 48-th power. Starting draft order should have more better players on the upper section of the list, so that might help the percentage a little, but it still remains well under 1%. So based on that I still think the guy investing will get a better player 99% of the time, even if he drafts second.

Last edited by Kukoc at 11/9/2011 7:19:35 PM

From: CrazyEye

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201834.21 in reply to 201834.20
Date: 11/9/2011 7:23:42 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
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So that leaves us about half a draft of 18yo-s to get info from. With 140k you get to know atleast all 18yo-s player rating.


which leaves you with maybe 5 5 star ratings, and the possibility of a talented 19yo Hof who beats up the most 18yo too.

But if we are looking at it exponentially drafting the same draft 48 times. He might never hit the best player. His chance would be 0.02 in the 48-th power


or he might hit it 20 times, thats maybe more unlikely but with this logic we could change prohability easily to 100% he get the better player.

But the real chanche would be 2,083 percent, that he get the first pick of the other team(which most not have to be the best player in draft as stated before)

Starting draft order should have more better players on the upper section of the list, so that might help the procentage a little, but it still remains well under 1%.


that will push it, more to 3 or more realistic 2,5.


Last edited by CrazyEye at 11/9/2011 7:24:55 PM

From: Kukoc

This Post:
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201834.22 in reply to 201834.21
Date: 11/9/2011 7:56:14 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
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But the real chanche would be 2,083 percent
I agree this is valid for one draft. But we are talking about multiple situations. This statement was thrown out there
Spending no money on draft and catching a legend 18yo selling him at 2M is not "a bit" of luck. It's just stupid random.
Is this really a problem and does it happen often. Well I do not know exactly how many leagues there are in buzzerbeater. But looking at Estonia only, having 341 leagues. With those all populated and using the same exponential adding of percentages, we get a chance of hitting a better player for blind drafter so close to 0, that it's not even worth mentioning.
So catching that legend 18yo, with good skills and finding someone willing to pay 2M is equal to winning a lottery jackpot. Does this happen often in BB and is it a problem. No it is not.

From: CrazyEye

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201834.23 in reply to 201834.22
Date: 11/9/2011 8:03:57 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
959959
But the real chanche would be 2,083 percent


I agree this is valid for one draft. But we are talking about multiple situations. This statement was thrown out there


make it like thousand of them, then it will be still the same chanche and an average around ~20,83.

make it then thousand times, and the chanche for a single draw is 2,083 and in average there would be 208,3 cases like that.

Is this really a problem and does it happen often. Well I do not know exactly how many leagues there are in buzzerbeater. But looking at Estonia only, having 341 leagues. With those all populated and using the same exponential adding of percentages, we get a chance of hitting a better player for blind drafter so close to 0, that it's not even worth mentioning.


small sample are usually even more depending on random , instead of close to zero it could be 54 or 15% and in this case the chanches that i am right is nearly the same when you consider the missing factors ;)

Last edited by CrazyEye at 11/9/2011 8:05:18 PM

This Post:
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201834.24 in reply to 201834.17
Date: 11/10/2011 12:57:35 AM
Overall Posts Rated:
105105
I didn't see a player who had been worth X in the NBA got five times his value on another team.


the salary stay the same ;) And NBA players don't progress with that speed, but franchise also measure talent versus skill differently.
I didn't said that the price is fixed.
I said that there is a not that wide range of value between clubs for the same player.
This was also what I've suggested here.

This Post:
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201834.25 in reply to 201834.18
Date: 11/10/2011 1:00:16 AM
Overall Posts Rated:
105105
So what you are saying is. You can pick that best player (without spending on draft) over a guy (who is spending money on draft) 99%?, 75%?, 50%, 25%, 10%, 1% of a time. What is your educated guess? Is this really a problem. In what league has this happened? How often has this happened?
I would say a player investing about 140k in draft will pick a better player 99% of the time, even if he is picking second, after the blind drafter.
Who says that in the NBA each team invest the same on draft?
Why being last should be automatically rewarded? This is just encouraging to tank on several occasions (when you cannot take your league...).

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