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so by my count, there were 96 division 1s in season 10, therefore there were 92*4=368 teams who promoted into division 1 after season 10.

There were 136 teams which promoted in season 10 to division 1, who were subsequently demoted after season 11.

Therefor the average survival rate of newly promoted teams is 63.0%, just 10% less than what it would be if you thought all teams in a division were perfectly equal.

the numbers get more complicated when you look at lower divisions because although every country has a D2, not all have a D3, but 326 teams went up into 2, and then down into 3 the next season.

There were 376*4=1472 division 2s, but there were 16 countries which had no division 3... so that means 1472-(16*4)=1408 teams the promoted to division 2, making that a 76.8% survival rate.

The numbers could be off a bit due to bot promotion.. i haven't thought about it too carefully.. and i can't remember exactly whether the metric i used to detect promotions and demotions includes or doesn't include bot promotions.... but i do know the amount of bot promotion is small in the upper divisions, so i trust those numbers are not too far off.

Of course you could argue that its harder in the big countries... but particularly when you are dealing with D1 in big countries.. of which there are only a handful its going to be really tough to tell based upon N=4 or 5 what the real survival rate is..you need to look over multiple seasons.. and i'd assume your argument is that these recent changes have made it more difficult so looking over too many seasons back wouldn't be relevant.

EDIT) I was counting countries wrong, 96 exist now.. 92 existed after season 10, and only 16 countries only had 2 divisions after season 10.



Last edited by BB-Forrest at 3/29/2010 10:39:24 AM

Although I think the question Big8 vs Great8 should go to another topic I would like to react on that as well.

It seems to me that besides having a good team when you get promoted you should also have luck and avoid the best division to where you're going to!

In that sense I fell that I was the most lucky guy geting promoted from the IV division because not only I entered a III division where there are no relegated teams (I guess there were bots on the II division), but also I was placed in the weakest conferece of the division where I could TIE my first game against the winner of the regular season 11. By chance, there are even two teams in my conference that do not enter BB since the 16 and 19th of March (wich will eventualy turn to bots).

It is logical that I can TIE plenty of games and be with a huge enthusiasm not only for the cup games but also to the matches against the other conference! You may say that it is impossible to avoid this but I would answer that there are to many lucky steps. As said before, a strong conference will probably continue to be stronger until the best teams get promoted from that side.

I propose that every season the teams of the same division are shuffled and you get new conferences every season. By doing this you still have the lucky step of geting into the weakest division/conference, but you will know that the next season everything may change and you can as much luck as the other ones! I also think this would promote better competition as players in the weakest conference will put more effort on getting promoted that year and balance both conferences!

I am saying all this knowing that I really am in a lucky division and conference!

What everybody think about it?

Cheers

I wonder about numbers for Div 1 for countries with at least 400 users. Because you know you still get new countries alike Ghana in that survey.

It seems you just multipled by 4. That is not a good approach as if you think there are actually still bots, then more new teams promotes, so percentages would be lower.

no... actually.... if there are bots in D1, that means more teams promoted... which would mean the survival percentage would be higher... not lower.

of the top 33 most populated countries in buzzerbeater (country 33 has 414 users), meaning 33*4=132 division 1 promotions, there were 60 subsequent demotions, making it a 55% survival rate, which i agree is lower... but also is just about where you thought it should be, and where we think it should be too.

fwiw.. in the top 10 countries, it was 16 demotions.. or 60% survival rate.

Last edited by BB-Forrest at 3/29/2010 10:50:23 AM

Oh well you counted relgating teams not other way around. i guees you should then cause there are countries like Ghana, where nobody relegated, so actually countries where at least four teams relegatingm better for non-bot teeams relegated should be considered. But still many of those leguaes are useless to argue competetiveness point. When you have notm uch more than 20 teams Div 1 can hardly close itself as there is usually not enough established teams yet.

So your number s is still just a number withou no analysis impact I guess.

Edit: (and re-edit, typoes)
I checked BB-stats and there are 41 countries of that 96 that by dull numbers of users today currently don't have enough non-bot teams to provide full relegation from Div 2 (i.e. have less than 96 users) which could one bordeline to consider. As all smaller countries Div 2 teams play in environment where relegation is a non issue (of them only Malaysia have fully filled Divs 2). So counting with those 41 countries influenced any reliability of that % you posted. Only 40 countries have at least somewhat nearly filled Div 3 (300+ users) and those i think are countries we could consider for realiable relegatin ration for Div 1 leagues. (size and starting season would still matter and ideally we should use those criterias to get more specific numbers but there wouldn't be enough league to work with then).


Last edited by docend24 at 3/29/2010 11:07:17 AM

I really think that you have to concede to me at this point... I have shown you quite definitively that the rate at which newly promoted teams demote is not below what you should expect and want for a competitive division 1.

also i checked into it... and i am using the playoff results to determine what i mean by relegated and promoted... so i am counting relegations that were subsequently nullified by bot promotions as demotions. I am not counting teams that were bot promoted and then subsequently relegated in the count. and really that isn't an important analysis in the larger countries, where top teams very rarely go bot.

I have jsut edited my post, take it as answer. Thank for effort I appreciate you looking at it but I think those numbers are oof because of the reasons I posted by editing myp ost.

I think forrest mention that he looked into the top33 countries!

That means you will most probably don't have bots relegating from Division I

I think forrest mention that he looked into the top33 countries!

That means you will most probably don't have bots relegating from Division I

Where? Oh I see it. this forums is not friendly to post happening meanwhile you editing your post or posting a new post.

Last edited by docend24 at 3/29/2010 11:09:09 AM