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What that shows is that 4 predictions = 1.1 - 1.7 levels. Except I think at this point it's fair to say that going by levels is incorrect - it's clearly got to be a percentage of the base rating, since I gained personally somewhere from 1.6 to 1.9 levels myself from a single prediction (predicted OD wondrous (high), actual with correct outside prediction prodigious (medium)). The weird thing is that it looks like it's also redirecting some of the defense (I guessed outside, and my ID dropped a level vs. prediction).

you mean this game? (65823062)
you played a 1-3-1. and a 1-3-1 gives your team an OD boost of 15-20%. I still don't have the exact percentage for this zone.
3-2: +10% OD; -10% ID
2-3: -20% OD, +10% ID ; +10% RB (still working here too)

So if you play a 1-3-1 or 3-2 you get a boost from the defensive tactic and than you get on this new OD a new boost for GDP. that's the reason why such high ratings like 16 are possible.

as soon as I loose in the cup, I will start testing/reworking the numbers with another manager from Germany. we will play several scrimmages with the same line ups and tactics. only GDP will be different. maybe I will have some better numbers at the end of this season...

Exactly. I added my info mostly to help out - the wondrous (high) predicted from coachparrot, which is usually very accurate for me when I adjust the minutes and enthusiasm for my lineup afterward and there's no garbage time. I would say for example if I had been predicted for 14.9 (which I don't remember as the spreadsheet that I did the calcs on is at home), a 10% boost for the GDP would have put me at essentially 16.4, which would be right about the expected range, so maybe one prediction being worth 10% is a decent baseline estimate? If so it's higher than I expected, but hopefully more fine folk such as yourself and the other people contributing to the thread can come up with more and more data points to allow for more informed analysis.

GDP already screwing us...

(26969)
(27327)

Of course I don't like losing, but I welcome the GDP anyway, even if I'm on the wrong end of beating. Both U21 and NT were slight favourites, especially NT of England was our regular "customer".

Anyway, I welcome the GDP because it shows you can no longer prevail with brute force only. Of course that won't make bad teams suddenly beat much superior teams, but in cases of close games these mini-games with tactics can decide a match.

Yeah we were very happy about how our predictions and the match worked out. You still have a good chance of qualifying though I think.

I'm not sure if this is just a coincidence, but it might be a result of Pace guessing. Is it possible Pace guess helps you in offense? I don't know, but look up these facts:

(66277356)
30k C hits 16 of 22 shots against 63k C. Both at respectable game shape.

(27327)
A 210k PF hits 16 of 21 shots against equally good PFs, one at GS 7 and the other at GS 9. England's PF was at respectable game shape. Both England's centers combine for 11-16 shooting and SF has a 7-10 night.

(26969)
Patient against mediocre OD (8 in this case) works great, but 11-15 on threes by a SG with Strong-low game shape? Never seen something like that.

(66277331)
His PG is good, but 7-14 shooting against OD 19 with R&G tactic?

Like I mentioned above, these might be a coincidence, but I'll be looking into it a bit more as the season progresses. If anyone notices the same, don't hesitate to post it here!

It just seems like its some deviation. Sometimes my players just cant make a bucket no matter what, if i quess gdp or not, sometimes or atleast one player every game shoot out the lights, sometimes my 9is guy scores 17/27 playing li, sometimes my 14 11 js jr guy scores 3/21 playing run a nd gun. its just some deviation, nothing more i think. But by quessing pace i noticed my attacks became way longer than used to be if oponent quesses my pace right. Usually since my passing is extremely high, usualy lineup looks like 14 14 10 11 15 i get done attack in 8-10 secs. But when oponent guesses pace nearly every shot becomes nearly or the very last second like 20-24 sec. This is what iv noticed.

Last edited by Gajus Julijus Cezaris at 1/14/2014 9:54:55 AM

I'm not sure if this is just a coincidence, but it might be a result of Pace guessing. Is it possible Pace guess helps you in offense? I don't know, but look up these facts:

I'll apologize in advance for neglecting to include any accent/special characters but I'm typing notes into notepad and then recreating here, so I'm just using the letters on my keyboard.

(66277356)
30k C hits 16 of 22 shots against 63k C. Both at respectable game shape.

Look at the PBP though. The C was 11/13 on assisted shots, 4/4 against Torti, and 1-4 against Zale (though three shooting fouls were drawn).

(27327)
A 210k PF hits 16 of 21 shots against equally good PFs, one at GS 7 and the other at GS 9. England's PF was at respectable game shape. Both England's centers combine for 11-16 shooting and SF has a 7-10 night.

He was 11/13 on assisted shots, 1/1 vs. Vidoivic, 1/3 vs. Smit and 2/4 vs. Navrsnik.

(26969)
Patient against mediocre OD (8 in this case) works great, but 11-15 on threes by a SG with Strong-low game shape? Never seen something like that.

He went 8/11 behind the arc against Sobar, though, who appears to be a 40k C type who I imagine has very little OD compared to the JS/JR of the shooter (who also went 3-3 on open threes, and missed the one he took against Kosorok).

(66277331)
His PG is good, but 7-14 shooting against OD 19 with R&G tactic?

This one's a little odd. He's only 2-5 when open, but 5-9 against the player's whose name I mangled so badly I'm not going to bother trying to type - the guard playing C on offense. ;) He also drew three fouls, for what it's worth.

Anyhow, the last one seems a little strange but not too extreme - I'd expect that you could expect one or two of the missed open shots should have been made and one or two of the contested made shots to be missed, but that balances out. The other games are all explainable by open shots for the Cs and having a C guarding an outside shooter for the three point display.


Last edited by GM-hrudey at 1/14/2014 10:17:54 AM

Not sure if this is the most recent general GDP thread, but has there been any discussion as to whether GDP is here to stay? I'd be really disappointed if it is.

Just realise that enthusiasm is more important than GDP feature ... (69468455)

I used push-the-ball as I hope my team to focus on PG/SG to shoot as many shots as possible. But still lost the game by 13 points.

Or should I use another offense strategy instead?