The nations with say 100-150 users will get hurt the most (not sure if they are classed as small or mid sized), because they currently have all III drafts and will lose most of them, and I'm not sure they get many draftees from Utopia. For example Finland NT currently has 8 out of 18 players who wouldn't exist in the new system. England would lose 6 or 7 players out of 16.
I agree releasing all bot draftees would completely tank the market, and I understand NT is given a lower priority compared to individual teams when it comes to changes. But I think what Marin says makes sense, where it may be beneficial to release some top-end draftees depending how this plays out in reality.
Sure we would lose some players because we can't draft them from leagues let's say III.9 to III.16 so half of the leagues. And our NT rankings are quite high so probably we would lose in Utopia too. That being said we would basically get everyone good harvested from III.1 to III.8 drafts or at least have better chance to not lose anyone to bots. My estimation would be that we lose 4 hall of famers per season from the bot leagues and get 2 extras from the human leagues so -2 prospects for us.
Also Utopia has given us around 2 hall of famers every season which isn't YET visible change in NT roster. If this was lowered to 1, I don't think it would affect NT in the long run a lot. And some bigger countries won't even need that one every season. So this would mean -1 prospect for us from the current situation but +1 what it used to be before dual nationalities.
Furthermore, the buff to 19yo starting skills isn't visible in the NT scene either. That will also in the future help us average sized countries since they will be more viable to train. There isn't many of these players that have good enough skills to be viable to train but there has been at least few that have potential. So let's say +2 prospects, could be more if training 19yo becomes more common.
So we have kinda been already given the compensation for the reduction of the NT prospect pool. Compared to the current NT generation and how the game worked when they were drafted, we would actually have +1 potential NT player based on these estimations. Of course, this is very rough one and it varies a lot every season but this was an example. Sure compared to the current situation we would lose a bit but we have managed very well in the past with the NT prospect pools of the time and we would still have more of them after this change.
And even if we lose a bit as a country, overall I think there would be a lot more enjoyment starting the game as a new player which potentially leads to more active players and filling up more leagues, as well as enjoyment of older teams rebuilding in div 3.
Small price to pay what we get in return.