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New Draft System / Potential

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From: GypsyK

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24882.189 in reply to 24882.179
Date: 4/21/2008 6:09:23 PM
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19 players Scouted once.
5 Scouted twice.

Potential:
1 @ 3
3 @2
1 @ 1

Grades:
1 @ A
1 @ A-
1 @ B

Star ratings:
6 @ 5
4 @ 4

8 Centres
5 PG's
2 SG's
2 SF's
2 PF's

Of the graded players I will select the A- (best potential visible to me.)

I will ignore the A and the B and select the best 5 star players relative to their games stats. Max converted goals for one, max turnovers and blocks for other. (Trying to balance for minutes played.)

Quite frankly I don't like the new draft. Before it was simple, now it seems fraught with danger of wrong assessment. Too much information without knowledge for direct comparisons. It may still just be a gamble but last year I wasn't confused about anything, this year I can blame myself. :(







Last edited by GypsyK at 4/21/2008 6:11:55 PM

This Post:
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24882.191 in reply to 24882.186
Date: 4/21/2008 8:15:47 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
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This makes little sense. If height and age were available at second scouting, there wouldn't be anything to trade, since the only way that both 'traders' had this information is if both players fully scouted the guy, so nothing to trade there.


It helps greatly to identify the players in the draft. For example, I could ask you "what do you know about the 5'9" PG, the 6'10" PF and the 7'2" C?" You might only have one of those, but it would be a way to get more potential ratings than you are entitled to under the rules.

This Post:
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24882.193 in reply to 24882.192
Date: 4/21/2008 8:41:24 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
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Whoops, I missed the second part.

Still, players lying about their height and age happens all the time. All-time greats such as Wes Unseld, Charles Barkeley and even Bill Russell kept their real heights a trade secret.

I don't have a problem with these stats being missing considering 5 star players don't 'bust' in training camp the way real players do.

This Post:
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24882.195 in reply to 24882.193
Date: 4/22/2008 12:47:35 AM
Overall Posts Rated:
137137

Still, players lying about their height and age happens all the time. All-time greats such as Wes Unseld, Charles Barkeley and even Bill Russell kept their real heights a trade secret.


Yeah...Bill Walton always claimed he was only 6 feet 13 inches.

I could have swore he was 7 feet!

Steve
Bruins

This Post:
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24882.196 in reply to 24882.164
Date: 4/22/2008 1:28:26 AM
Overall Posts Rated:
44
There is a disproportionate amount of 5-star players. Last season, I had 9 or so players scouted, and 3 of these were 5-star. This season, 10 of 20 are 5-stars. Is this a trend, or just a weird case of the fall of the dice?

I'm pretty sure the distribution is not uniform, and hasn't been in the past. I'm not sure whether 5 is the most common or not.

It is also possible that the star rating is based on a player's best skills (eg "5" might indicated that a player's 3 best skills are respectable, and gives no information about whether the other skills are atrocious or two more respectables and 3 averages). If the skills are independently generated, that sort of classification would make sense.

From: jimrtex

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24882.197 in reply to 24882.169
Date: 4/22/2008 1:35:19 AM
Overall Posts Rated:
44
Power Forwards in the draft?

Are there anyone that has a Power Forward on the list. I have none of 29.
My father has none of 27.
That is a very low % PF.

This is true of all players in BB. Go look at some bot rosters. I think it is an artifact of BB's classification system. A PF has to have a good JS to go along with good inside skills (if he has a good JS and doesn't have good inside skills he may end up classified as a SG).

BB could probably tweak its classification system (so that perhaps an adequate JS could result in a classification as PF). But that could confuse teams whose C suddenly flips to PF without training in JS.

This Post:
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24882.199 in reply to 24882.198
Date: 4/22/2008 1:56:19 AM
Overall Posts Rated:
44

I don't expect it to be uniform. It is more likely to be Gaussian with the peak between 2 and 3 -- extremely weak and extremely good players have to be more rare.

It is definitely not Gaussian. It is much more likely that the individual skills are Gaussian and independent. It's just easier to do it that way, and produces an OK mix of combinations of skills.

I'm not sure I would even expect it to be Gaussian (or if it were we are seeing the players that are at least 1+ sd. Remember that we are looking at the top 48 of perhaps several 100 players. Most of the rest are going to be getting their college degree (sadly too many won't graduate) rather than having a professional Buzzer Beater career.


Star rating vs. letter grade could be a whole pile of different things. The star rating might refer to the overall skill level, while the letter grade refers to the 'in-position' skills. Or it can be top 4 skills (stars) and top 8 skills (letters). Or they might even include height, as it affects the way skills will progress with training.



I am a bit ticked that I didn't record properly the letter grades of the guys I picked last season: my first and second rounders were 5*, though I can't recall the letters for the life of me.

As far as I remember, there have always been more 5's than 4's and 4's and relatively few 2's and 1's.

I think I actually tended to move 3's below the unknowns, figuring that the unknowns had much greater chance of being a 4 or 5 than a 1 or 2.

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