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They were too confusing, to put it simple:

PP100 has nothing to do with what actually happened in the game.

I think you're being unfair to B.B King. He did an excellent job to break it down for us all.
I wouldn't say that pp100 has nothing to do with what actually happened in the game. Instead, i do recognise it as a good indicator of what happened.
At the end of the day, randomness and final score aside, working with the pp100 or the probabilities we created(or allowed to create) in the game, is a main evaluation tool to assess what we're doing right and wrong, with regards to our roster capabilities and our tactical decisions.

I wouldn't say that pp100 has nothing to do with what actually happened in the game. Instead, i do recognise it as a good indicator of what happened.

And this would be where you are going wrong and why you are having such a confusing time with this PP100 concept.

PP100 does indeed have NOTHING to do with what actually happened. PP100 is a THEORETICAL statistic to gage how a player would perform on average given current GS, enthusiasm level, skills, and tactic choice. (And since the GDP inception, potentially the effect of guesses) It is useful for understanding how your players offensive skills compare to that of his defenders defensive skills.

To illustrate my point take these two matches from last season. We were testing GDP guessing effects with the same lineups in consecutive weeks so GS shouldnt have varied much. (65381756)(65388649)
It's all scrubs but it proves the point nevertheless. Take my SF for example. Game one he had a PP100 of 76.6 and scored 12pts. Game 2 he had a PP100 of 80.3 and scored 28pts. The PP100 is nowhere near double but yet he scored 2.3 times as much. Hence it has NOTHING to do with actual results! The most that this tells you about what ACTUALLY happened is that in game 2 he had an above average game whereas in game 1 he had a significantly below average outing.

I wouldn't say that pp100 has nothing to do with what actually happened in the game. Instead, i do recognise it as a good indicator of what happened.

And this would be where you are going wrong and why you are having such a confusing time with this PP100 concept.

PP100 does indeed have NOTHING to do with what actually happened. PP100 is a THEORETICAL statistic to gage how a player would perform on average given current GS, enthusiasm level, skills, and tactic choice. (And since the GDP inception, potentially the effect of guesses) It is useful for understanding how your players offensive skills compare to that of his defenders defensive skills.

To illustrate my point take these two matches from last season. We were testing GDP guessing effects with the same lineups in consecutive weeks so GS shouldnt have varied much. (65381756)(65388649)
It's all scrubs but it proves the point nevertheless. Take my SF for example. Game one he had a PP100 of 76.6 and scored 12pts. Game 2 he had a PP100 of 80.3 and scored 28pts. The PP100 is nowhere near double but yet he scored 2.3 times as much. Hence it has NOTHING to do with actual results! The most that this tells you about what ACTUALLY happened is that in game 2 he had an above average game whereas in game 1 he had a significantly below average outing.

We're straying away from the thread's purpose and question, nevertheless...

i don't understand what gave you the impression that im confused by pp100, in any way other than the logistics of it.

pp100 isn't a statistic calculating a player's performance on average given current GS, enthusiasm, skillset and team's tactic.
It does so on the match day's specified factor values.

It's useful for understanding how your players offensive skills compare to that of his defenders defensive skills, taking into considaration the respective teams day tactics, as well. So im my mind, that is a good indicator of what happened in the game, match up wise.
If additionaly is compared to previous matches pp100 performances, then i value it to be a very useful tool in understanding what's right and wrong in my team's offense and what needs tweaking or changing.

I appreciate your testing efforts, but playing scrubs with possibly "erratic" skillsets and fielding teams of four each and a lucky fan, isn't good for credible results.
But even in your examples, we can see two great similarities. He attempted the exact same number of field goals and had pretty similar pp100s, in both games.

In proper lineups and proper games, patterns like that is what we're looking for.

Μy PG has 40% chance to score an open three.

So he takes 10 open 3p shots IN THE GAME (his only shots). His PP100 should be: 10 shots X 0.4 probability X 3pts X (100/10) = 120 P.P. 100 shots. Right? Right.

If he won't take any 3p shot IN THE GAME (and any other shot), his PP100 should be: 0 shots X 0.4 probability X etc... = 0 P.P. 100 shots.

He could score 4 out of 10 or 0 out of ten or even 10 out of ten (all of this, I call them "luck"). It doesn't matter, his PP100 would be the same.

This is how I realise P.P. 100 and any other way to do it would be useless, because any shot has another probability. For 3pts it could be 20%, for open dunks it could be 95% (random numbers just for the example) and so on...

One thing is certain: G.E. calculates PP 100 based on facts (= shots) in the game, not theoritical assumptions whether the player has the ability to take the shot and score. If there is a shot, there is a PP100 calculation, if there isn't then no PP 100 calculation.

The only question for me is the one I made in the OP: Are FTs or shots that result in a shooting foul taken into account to calculate PP 100?

Μy PG has 40% chance to score an open three.

So he takes 10 open 3p shots IN THE GAME (his only shots). His PP100 should be: 10 shots X 0.4 probability X 3pts X (100/10) = 120 P.P. 100 shots. Right? Right.

If he won't take any 3p shot IN THE GAME (and any other shot), his PP100 should be: 0 shots X 0.4 probability X etc... = 0 P.P. 100 shots.

So if he plays 47 minutes and 59 seconds with no shots, you think he should be 0 PP100, but if he throws up a full-court shot at the buzzer that misses, he's back up to 120PP100? Or should he still be 0 because he missed, and if so, if his only shot is a jumper that he scores, is it 200 PP100?

One thing is certain: G.E. calculates PP 100 based on facts (= shots) in the game, not theoritical assumptions whether the player has the ability to take the shot and score. If there is a shot, there is a PP100 calculation, if there isn't then no PP 100 calculation.

One thing is certain: the evidence and game manual state otherwise.

First of all, all the numbers I use is for the examples, to make it easier for everyone to follow what I'm thinking. I have no indication on the percentages of probabilities for every type of shot and it's circumstances.

but if he throws up a full-court shot at the buzzer that misses, he's back up to 120PP100?

No, because a full-court shot has another percentage of probability. If it has, let's say 1% to get in, the PP100 would be 3. If it has 0,5% the PP100 would be 1,5 and so on...

and if so, if his only shot is a jumper that he scores, is it 200 PP100?

If there is a type of shot, in any circumstances, which has 100% probability to be successful and it's the only shot that a player tries in a game, then yes, the PP100 should be 200. I'm sure that jumpers are not the case.

One thing is certain: the evidence and game manual state otherwise.

The manual says nothing helpful on our debate. Evidence don't exist, we just speculate, because if there were any, we wouldn't have this conversation right now, there wouldn't be any reason to do so.

The manual says nothing helpful on our debate. Evidence don't exist, we just speculate, because if there were any, we wouldn't have this conversation right now, there wouldn't be any reason to do so.

The manual does:

For games played during season 3 and later, we have replaced this with the more comprehensive matchup ratings. The matchup rating represents the number of points that players at a given position would have scored, on average, if they were to take 100 shots. A higher number is indicative of better scoring opportunities at that position over the course of the game, and of course you should try to take full advantage of your strength when selecting your tactics.

Please note it doesn't say based on the quality of shots or number of shots actually taken during the game - it just says based on the number of points they would have scored, on average, if they were to take 100 shots. Your basic assertion is that if a position took 0 shots in a game, it should be displayed as if they would score 0 points on 100 shots. The only way it should ever show 0.0 for a game that's not a walkover is if a player has less than a 0.05% chance of making a shot.

Last edited by GM-hrudey at 1/23/2014 11:53:56 AM

A higher number is indicative of better scoring opportunities at that position over the course of the game...

I'm sorry, but this doesn't prove anything... It is just an indication, a help if you prefer to a user on how to read the PP 100. It doesn't describe anything more than this...

I think that the best solution to end this debate is to straightforwardly ask BB-Marin on this. I'm going to send him a BB mail later tonight and let's hope this is something he can reveal or we'll just keep on speculating.

i don't understand what gave you the impression that im confused by pp100, in any way other than the logistics of it.

When you say it shows anything about actual results is what makes me think this.

It does so on the match day's specified factor values.

This is exactly what I said EXCEPT I said average because as stated by others with probability analogies the number value you get would be the average or expected value.

If additionaly is compared to previous matches pp100 performances, then i value it to be a very useful tool in understanding what's right and wrong in my team's offense and what needs tweaking or changing.

100% agree. I'd even take this one step further and compare a specific players PP100 over numerous games against the same opponent while using different tactics.

I appreciate your testing efforts, but playing scrubs with possibly "erratic" skillsets and fielding teams of four each and a lucky fan, isn't good for credible results.
But even in your examples, we can see two great similarities. He attempted the exact same number of field goals and had pretty similar pp100s, in both games

My point exactly. Similar PP100 in both games yet a 16pt swing in ACTUAL performance. How can you see that and then think PP100 has anything to do with actual results?

FYI, those matches with 4-man scrub lineups may not be ideal but we did attempt to match up similarly skilled players and at the same positions each game. Therefore your "erratic" skillsets is void as is the GS, enthusiasm, tactics, etc. Again, not ideal but I'd say we did a pretty decent job of isolating GDP given we determined a rather large swing and that seems to be the consensus thus far by the majority. That's another topic though.

I'm not trying to argue and maybe I'm stuck on semantics here but when you relate PP100 to game results I just think, NO! I think of it as a way to gage how you stack up against your opponent all things considered but relates absolutely nothing to the results. In other words, I tend to think of it as a pre-game report where you would predict performance but then you watch the game to find out what really happened.

I think there is still some confusion here about what it represents.

Let use Probability theory to help explain. And a Dice example.

Standard 6 sided dice right? It has a probability of landing on the number 3 = 1 in 6. This is the probability.

In real life however, you might roll the dice 30 times, and say it landed on the number 3, 20 times...... The probability before, during and after the rolls is, always will be, 1 in 6, and forever it will be. Nothing about the fact that it landed 20 times, or if only landed 0 times on 3, the probability never changes.
However, the % of rolls during ur 30 rolls that landed on the number 3, was 20 in 30 = 66.6%

So treat PP100 shots, like probability. And the FG% like the actual end result. Two very different concepts right?

right. hopefully this clears it up. However your questions still stand?
eg:
How can a player have shot zero shots, yet have a PP100 of 50? (or whatever)

well, just like the dice example..... his PP100 might be 50 (ie: Probability leading into the game)... but in the end, his FG% was 0.

Now, why did he not take a shot? if Points per 100 shots = 50 then, shouldn't that indicate some kind of shot being taken?

i guess thats a valid argument, but lets think about it contextually.

In game, the PG had 4 other players to pick from to let shoot the ball.... The following was there PP100 scores
PG - 90
SG - 120
SF - 90
PF - 75
C - 50

And - playing RnG offense - so - who do you think the PG should pass to, to let shoot the ball?... Is it starting to make sense now?

Thinking about it in real life, think Dennis Rodman - He probably had a PP100 of like 50... but he still shot the ball? OH no way was Jordan about to let Rodman in on the offence. hence why he only averaged f-all.

Is this starting to make sense now? The PP100 is like a probability thing.

now, someone suggested that it is not afected by anything in game - i think this is a confusing statement. I would challange this to say that - PP100 IS affected by the opposition defence and players and by ur own team's offensive setup. But this still does not mean that the number of shots a player SHOULD take during a game is related to the PP100.

Im Summary - its like saying this
"IF the player took 100 shots in the game, he would score this many points - only IF... but because he sucks, the PG is NEVER going to let him shoot. BUT, if he DID shoot 100 shots, then his PP100 would be X. "

make sense? hopefully this helps :)

if you so curious about real ppp make excel spreadsheet and count them. its very eazy.

THEORETICAL ppp is VERY USEFULL indicator of the succes of tactical choices. you can see missmatches and prepare for them next time. I always play against 2nd strongest league team basic offence man to man with standart ;lineup, look up ppp, game shapes, tactics used, make conlusions, prepare next time for the finals and whooo a blowout win for me if you smart its very usefull, in some ocasions where oponent has loopholes you can make like +30 pts by using missmatches. for example you played your pf at center, despite he is like 10is 14js and he shot against predicting 16 id, which you can tell about ratings and other games pp against other centers, so you can compare how well your ofense guys works against same defence as oponents guys. So if my shity IS guy ppp is like 105 against great IS i make decision, if guy is in great shape he is very crap at OD, thats why ppp so increased and was at like 105 instead of predictable 50-60. Next time i play Patient with that pf or my best shooter at center i get 125-140 ppp, depending how crappy his od actually was, my shooter drops like 50 points 65percent acuracy,m i blowout the game:D

Another example is despite being crappy shooter oponent pg scored high ppp, then you can decide ur defender hasnt high enough id to defend his layups, so next time you let ur sf defend him and he is shut out, you win game:)

like someone said basketball game is won by missmatches. so find them, use them,dont lets ur oponent use them efectrively and youll get huge advantage.

Last edited by Gajus Julijus Cezaris at 1/24/2014 12:55:49 PM