According to the bb-salary-calc_1.0.4 next season he will have a salary of $19,487 and will need potential 5.195. Now this doesn't take into account sub-levels but that looks bad.
A second opinion is the BB_Salary_Calculator_-_Season17.exe. It suggests he will have a salary of $19,414 next season and needs star potential but has room for several more pops. For example it thinks you could get OD, JR and DR all to prolific no problem. I don't trust it as I have tested it with players I know are capped and it said they weren't.
The Calculator is a LOT more generous than the excel spreadsheet. You can take your pick.
PS: Moutlinho is way smarter than me and is he expert in these things.