Hi, I also came here from HT, but after some months playing, in my opinion BB only apparently resembles HT. I mean that the surface is very similar but the game engine has nothing to do, and this is why people are often claiming about losing a game with better ratings.
I think we all know more or less what is affecting a shot: the individual defense/attack comparison, also the team defense/attack, the quality of the shot (as one assisted shot is taken with no defense or lower defense), experience and stamina should have an effect, the distance to the basket and of course a % of luck.
And I disagree with you, I don´t prefer to know everything and I prefer to use my intuition. You will see that after some time most things will be clearer. I play hattrick, but at this moment it is all so clear and predictable that I spend 5 minute in setting my line-up, hours in the market to buy better players, and of course a comparison with real soccer will lead you to disaster. In BB, anyone with some knowledge of real basketball has a lot of advantage.
Regards.
¡Me aburro! (Homer Simpson)