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Crazy's Eye on fouling

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99675.2 in reply to 99675.1
Date: 7/1/2009 11:43:20 AM
Overall Posts Rated:
959959
http://www.filefactory.com/file/ahag1g7/n/Fouls_ods - here you could see the data of the first game day with excel or open office.

For understanding effort -1 means the loosing team put more into the game then the winning(TIE vs normal or normal vs CT), + 2 means the winning team plays with 2 level more "effort" and so on.

For pace 0= slow, 1= normal, 2= fast

Because of the small sample today i won't draw any conclusions from it, so i give just small stats:
Average Fouls winning teams(11 games):18.82
Average Fouls loosing teams(11 games): 15:45

Average Fouls winning teams vs Inside(4 games): 17
Average Fouls winning teams vs Outside(5 games): 20.75

Average Fouls loosing teams vs Inside(2 games): 17,5
Average Fouls loosing teams vs outside(5 games): 15

The winning team often plays with higher pace, but for this i need more data^^


Last edited by CrazyEye at 7/1/2009 11:43:38 AM

This Post:
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99675.3 in reply to 99675.2
Date: 7/1/2009 12:47:09 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
459459
I'm no scientist, but from your findings I'd say that the winning team fouls more often so it's a winning strategy to have a couple of bruisers on your squad.

Once I scored a basket that still makes me laugh.
From: Mannen

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99675.4 in reply to 99675.2
Date: 7/1/2009 4:42:20 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
7575
I could not open the file with my Excel 2003 so i downloaded some 2007 compability stuff from microsoft but i still cant open the file... Is it possible to get the next file in some other format?

/Mannen
From: CrazyEye

This Post:
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99675.5 in reply to 99675.4
Date: 7/1/2009 4:47:50 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
959959
http://www.filefactory.com/file/ahah0f3/n/Fouls_xls - it an pseudo excel(2007 so you need to parse too, but i don't know how good they understand the older files), but sad that MS can not implemt the simple standards ...

But maybe i was to optimistic in this case, till they understand html have take some years too.

Last edited by CrazyEye at 7/1/2009 4:48:31 PM

This Post:
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99675.6 in reply to 99675.3
Date: 7/1/2009 4:55:12 PM
New York Chunks
II.2
Overall Posts Rated:
952952
I think the sample size needs to be bigger...

It's funny, I was just about to argue on this, but I checked my regular season games for this season and found that in 8 games, the winning team had more fouls 4 times, the losing team 3 times, and teams equal fouls once. However, I did notice that in the one game with a huge difference in number of fouls, the winning team won.

A few things to consider:

- When a team is losing in the final minute or two, that team fouls a lot (and probably still loses, adding to the "loser's foul count")

- Perhaps fouling is a good strategy when the opposition shoots free throws poorly. A study on fouls should distinguish between the more competitive leagues and lower leagues, assuming that older teams have more developed players who shoot free throws better, and fouling may lead more often to losing. On the other hand, more advanced teams may have better depth, so getting into foul trouble is less of an issue for those teams and fouling is less likely to lead to a loss than for newer teams with poor depth.

- How often does a foul lead to an injury? Something to ponder that may make fouling affective...

Don't ask what sort of Chunks they are, you probably don't want to know. Blowing Chunks since Season 4!
Message deleted
This Post:
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99675.8 in reply to 99675.3
Date: 7/1/2009 4:57:15 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
11
I'm no scientist, but from your findings I'd say that the winning team fouls more often so it's a winning strategy to have a couple of bruisers on your squad.


Have a look about my matches and you won't say that :)

This Post:
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99675.9 in reply to 99675.2
Date: 7/1/2009 5:01:17 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
11
From my experience, one thing you should take account is the shooting fouls %

If a team make 20 fouls but just 10 are shooting it is not the same if 15 of 20 are shooting fouls. You will found quickly that loosing teams have high shooting fouls %...

This Post:
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99675.10 in reply to 99675.9
Date: 7/2/2009 3:52:45 AM
Overall Posts Rated:
959959
maybe someone can examine that later, but on a first look over my and the games there the free throws see to fit to the number of fouls for both teams.

maybe this appears to you, because of the end game logic of tight matches

This Post:
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99675.11 in reply to 99675.10
Date: 7/2/2009 1:59:53 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
155155
I have recently seen the suggestion that high driving skills may force more fouls. Not sure if this is true; however, someone said that they draw more fouls when their opponent "backs off slightly". Could this be an allusion to a player making a good drive so the opponent had to back off, allowing a perimeter shot?

On an inside shot, a drive is usually pretty obvious, with the text saying something like "player x drives to the basket".

Run of the Mill Canadian Manager
This Post:
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99675.12 in reply to 99675.11
Date: 7/2/2009 2:51:32 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
959959
I have recently seen the suggestion that high driving skills may force more fouls.


i believe that it in in better player get more fouls against weaker one, without knowing the skills of both players it is hard to test - maybe when it comes to an evidence in this study you could take another viw on it.

On an inside shot, a drive is usually pretty obvious, with the text saying something like "player x drives to the basket".


Won't say that, i could be just a text for a shot near the basket - and i also don't have fun to watch all games ;)

someone said that they draw more fouls when their opponent "backs off slightly".


also here i don't like to watch all the games, maybe it is a text for missed shot + foul when it gives something like that.

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