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Steve,

You've got me thinking about this on my morning jogs. :) This morning's cogitation brought this theory:

One thing that could explain the low outside shooting percentages we're seeing now is JUMP SHOT RANGE.

Right now, most skills on the transfer list aren't above PROMINENT, which is 10 out of 20 on the list of skills. Perhaps there are some 11's and 12's on teams right now, but that represents only 55%-60% of NBA Hall of Fame skill. Range in the rules is defined as:

A player with a higher jump range will find that the effectiveness of his jump shot decreases less with distance.

I think range is a deduction to shooting skill applied independently from defensive skill, so it is not based on the difference method discussed in this thread. Inside shot does not appear to have a similar deduction.

If I'm right about this (and only the BBs really know, but I think I've put together a decent explanation) outside shooting isn't very good compared to inside shooting because no player has any better than decent range right now. By that I mean no one is better than half way to the maximum skill level. in JUMP SHOT RANGE.

As the overall level of JUMP SHOT RANGE increases through training, outside shooting will get better. This should provide the re-balancing you're looking for in a game-driven way.

I think range is a deduction to shooting skill applied independently from defensive skill, so it is not based on the difference method discussed in this thread. Inside shot does not appear to have a similar deduction.

Perhaps...but then everything isn't really relative...

BB-Forrest said it was and to my knowledge, the only thing that isn't is free throw shooting...which is based solely on a players skills and not a defensive player.


Steve
Go Bruins!

What would 'range' be relative to?

BB-Forrest made a general statement 'all is relative' but did not specifically say RANGE. 'All' would include FT shooting, and I agree that isn't relative. So perhaps the generalization also does not include RANGE?

It would be useful to get a BB comment on RANGE.

Edited by Your_Imaginary_Friend (1/17/2008 2:34:16 PM CET)

Edited by Your_Imaginary_Friend (1/17/2008 2:35:19 PM CET)

Edited by Your_Imaginary_Friend (1/17/2008 2:35:35 PM CET)

Last edited by Your_Imaginary_Friend at 1/17/2008 2:35:35 PM

What would 'range' be relative to?

BB-Forrest made a general statement 'all is relative' but did not specifically say RANGE. 'All' would include FT shooting, and I agree that isn't relative. So perhaps the generalization also does not include RANGE?

It would be useful to get a BB comment on RANGE.

I'm guessing that range is effected by the relative defense too...at least based on one of my players performances: (773733) Check out his last two scrimmages...he went bananas against these lousy opponents.

Steve
Go Bruins!

So BB-Domenico, maybe you'll care to address the initial point of the post about the current balance between the inside and outside game and whether you think there are issues and how you think the game should balance this...

Steve
Go Bruins!

I'm guessing that range is effected by the relative defense too.

Possible, I agree. He took a lot of threes (run and gun will do that) and made half. That could simply be the result of his shooting being adjusted upwards without any change in range degradation. His two point shooting was one game lousy and one game very good, so its hard generalize about his range.

Without tracking the 'x's and 'o's of the shot plots (a tedious task) over a bunch of games, I doubt any of us will ever figure it out.

Driving also enters the picture, because skill in driving creates more open looks (of any and all kinds) which likely are easier to make than guarded shots.

I think it is very complex.

wether or not a shot goes in or not is a calculation that takes (as far as I read and experienced) into accoutn the following factors:

do you play CT or TIE
Does your opponent play CT or TIE
your shot taking players shotskill
his direct defender's defense skill
the total team offense rating of the shottaker
total defense rating of defending team
Stamina of shottaker
(possibly stamina of defending player)
probably a (small) random factor (otherwise the result would always be the same)
your offensive tactics (but it probably is already into the team ratings)
his defensive tactics (probably already into his teamratings)
quality of shot taken (also depending on experience, chosen tactics and shotklock time, previously taken shots, maybe even standings at the time...)

Now look at all these factors and imagine the possibilities of diffrent combinations...
Add some other factors I might have forgotten to mention, or which we do not know about...

Now try to define what % a given player should score in any average game...

Impossible, I'd think, because even though his factors might stay the same, many other factors can vary much. If you play a same team twice is it possible to score 3pointers at 50% while the next game, with the same players and the same stamina, the same tactics, everyting is the same, as far as you can see, you will not be able to score 10% ? ...
I believe this is possible.
why? Simply because he decided to CT against you...

I already expressed my opinion.

virtually all the players in the game are weak defenders. when a decent post man shoots over a poor post defender, he scores (think howard dunking on boykins for added comic effect). when a decent perimeter guy shoots over a poor perimeter defender, there's still a good chance of error. this may explain discrepancies in fg% between big men and guards. moreover, perimeter defenders have it even easier, since many (if not all) the jumpshooters in the game couldn't drive the lane to save their life. even if you suck at D, if you're free to concentrate on a single aspect of your opponent's offense (since the other one does no harm) you'll still manage to hinder him quite a bit, hence the gap.

I agree with the level assessment someone did a few posts ago — the current level on BB is that of low-tier college ball, or top-level highschool ball. the best players in the game are still 19yo, after all, so they have at least five-six full seasons of productive training before reaching "maturity". hell, they'd be barely eligible for early entry in the draft.

now, having said that, Forrest and Charles continuously do extensive testing of the game engine, running custom-tailored games (or even re-running controversial games). I can't exclude that actually one day they find out that yeah, percentages are slightly off (even if I don't think so). should that happen, we will of course announce the relevant changes well in advance, as we always do.

Edited by BB-Domenico (18/01/2008 3.16.34 CET)

Okay...that's a legit answer. However, it that case, its not strictly relative.

We will see how the game develops -- I've been impressed so far. I'm sure the BB's will make necessary adjustments when necessary.


Steve