I think it is very complex.
wether or not a shot goes in or not is a calculation that takes (as far as I read and experienced) into accoutn the following factors:
do you play CT or TIE
Does your opponent play CT or TIE
your shot taking players shotskill
his direct defender's defense skill
the total team offense rating of the shottaker
total defense rating of defending team
Stamina of shottaker
(possibly stamina of defending player)
probably a (small) random factor (otherwise the result would always be the same)
your offensive tactics (but it probably is already into the team ratings)
his defensive tactics (probably already into his teamratings)
quality of shot taken (also depending on experience, chosen tactics and shotklock time, previously taken shots, maybe even standings at the time...)
Now look at all these factors and imagine the possibilities of diffrent combinations...
Add some other factors I might have forgotten to mention, or which we do not know about...
Now try to define what % a given player should score in any average game...
Impossible, I'd think, because even though his factors might stay the same, many other factors can vary much. If you play a same team twice is it possible to score 3pointers at 50% while the next game, with the same players and the same stamina, the same tactics, everyting is the same, as far as you can see, you will not be able to score 10% ? ...
I believe this is possible.
why? Simply because he decided to CT against you...
They are not your friends; they dispise you. I am the only one you can count on. Trust me.