I also find it fairly amazing that you kept notes on the TPE value of your draftees when they were first selected 14 weeks ago. At the very least I think you're drawing extremely broad conclusions from a single draft's worth of experience without selling either of those draft picks.
I find it very easy to believe. At the start of every season I print out a hard copy of my team and I write on it the trade value of each player, their BBstats potential, their BuzzerControl rating and their expected position on my team. It is very fun and a bit useful to look at it at the end of the season and see how your team has changed and improved.
On the other hand I scan the TL a LOT and I have never ever found an 18 year old HOF dude for 200K with any skill set at all. Even now if you search for 19 year olds (who are one week off being 20) there are only 3 listed and I doubt any will sell for that price.