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New Draft Math

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This Post:
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137519.24 in reply to 137519.22
Date: 3/27/2010 4:24:05 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
404404
5 stars for match rating...sigh

From: chihorn
This Post:
00
137519.25 in reply to 137519.24
Date: 3/27/2010 10:23:57 PM
New York Chunks
II.2
Overall Posts Rated:
943943
Well, to get this back to my initial issue on the math, I think the issue I'm starting to have with the draft is that at this point, I have so far had significantly more success grabbing draft crumbs off of the TL than I have from the actual draft, both in terms of cost and player skills. Since my first draft at the end of Season 4, I think I've drafted 3 really good players, and only 2 of them that fit my team's training plan/needs. Even this year, I think the worst of my draftees was my first-rounder. The problem is that it seems that the odds of me actually drafting a player who's better than what I've can find on the TL for less than I spent on scouting seems significantly lower than what I think is worth while risking, and in the long run I can save enough money by not scouting (or at least scouting minimally) that I the money I save can either be spent on a decent rookie on the TL every season or on a really special rookie once every two/three seasons.

So this is the matter that I think needs to be really looked at by the astute BBs (who I personally think make a great call with the salaries this offseason, which is why I'm confident they'll eventually be able to improve the draft system so that most of us will really like it). Make the math work to get us interested in the draft, maybe by tying the evaluations to a scouting staff position, adding more players to the draft pool, changing the scouting cost amounts, etc., and I think we'll all be happier.

Don't ask what sort of Chunks they are, you probably don't want to know. Blowing Chunks since Season 4!
This Post:
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137519.26 in reply to 137519.25
Date: 3/28/2010 9:02:56 AM
Overall Posts Rated:
485485
i can't let the chunks have the last word on a thread he started -- but, la fou, i've been thinking . . .

what if we had something like what i understand the nfl has -- a collective scouting of a group of rookies. the way i envision this working is teams would pay to look -- say $50,000 -- and then get all the available information about all the rookies. (this could be subject to further development -- maybe the same balls system, ranking, box scores, or maybe some specific skills, height --)

then -- and this is the idea -- we would have a league-wide Dutch auction -- each team would offer silent, secret bids on the player(s) of their dreams -- i could see each team bidding on up to three players, say -- they could offer bids on each of the players, but rank their priority. this draft would accomplish much:

1) teams could opt in or out of the draft -- increasing the range of management tactics
2) teams could look for specific players to fit their needs
3) giving sufficient clues for a reasonable idea of the player's abilities and potential would remove or certainly reduce the random / gambling factor
4) strong rookies would no longer be free money for the undeserving, but would be fairly valued from the beginning. or, to put it another way, rookies would be more accurately valued before they hit the TL
5) it would be challenging to come up with a bid that both wins a player and does not overpay
6) it would further complicate finances, as teams would have to plan for the bids

downside, or adverse changes:
1) teams lose their draft advantage currently gained now by losing. i don't see this as deal breaker, because they could plan for spending big bucks on a draft choice.
2) multiple bids could be a hassle -- maybe teams could have a top bid, next bid, third bid, using the same money, but once that money is used, further bids would have to be covered with cash

this would add a bit of active excitement to the weeks between seasons, as we would be looking at other teams and determining what their needs might be, their bids, etc.


This Post:
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137519.27 in reply to 137519.26
Date: 3/28/2010 2:26:25 PM
New York Chunks
II.2
Overall Posts Rated:
943943
Not only would this take away the advantage to the teams that lost the most games (as the draft is suppose to help those teams improve before it helps the better teams), but this would actually make the best teams better since, presumably, they would have made more money during the course of the season due to better attendance, merchandise, etc., and they probably already have better players (hence a better team) they could sell and add more to their bank account, so they'd now be able to get a leg up on the draft buy outspending the weaker teams on scouting without the disadvantage of having to pick after them.

Don't ask what sort of Chunks they are, you probably don't want to know. Blowing Chunks since Season 4!
This Post:
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137519.28 in reply to 137519.27
Date: 3/28/2010 5:30:44 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
485485
would more successful teams not have more money during the season as well, and be able to afford to spend the extra on the scouting? right now, more successful teams have more money and can buy better players on the TL than weaker teams -- i don't see the difference. i think it is safe to say in bb it is always better to be a strong than weak team.

and as far as improving weaker teams, as it now stands, the weaker team(s) may or may not get the best player(s) available, thanks to random chance. as it now stands, my experience has shown me that weak teams and strong teams alike kiss off the draft more or less (i am basing this on the league averages on the team finances page). and after division v, a draft choice is not going to salvage a team headed for relegation anyway -- drafts are all about the future two or three seasons down the line.

i suppose i am saying the draft as now constituted does not accomplish the purpose of re-balancing league competition. my suggestion does make the process a bit more rational and predictably useful. and rich teams have as much chance at that rare 18-year old HOF player during the draft as on the TL.


This Post:
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137519.29 in reply to 137519.28
Date: 3/28/2010 6:24:40 PM
New York Chunks
II.2
Overall Posts Rated:
943943
I think we all generally agree that the draft doesn't help a whole lot. Here are a few thought, all of them perhaps flawed to some or large degree, but may have the potential to be better than the current system:

- The average fan knew who Kobe Bryant was before he went pro. LeBron James, we knew about him, too. In fact, the Steve Nashes (i.e. superstar players who were underrated in a draft) are more likely to be the exception and not the rule since the best of the best already have a reputation and every Joe Fan has watched them play on TV, so you know that any scout worth anything knows about them, too. Anyone think John Wall won't be a top 3 pick in the next draft? The point is, it shouldn't take a tone of scouting resources to figure which superstars are the most scoutable. Even high school players (LeBron, Kobe, etc.) are heavily scouted and known about, just subscribe to some place like Rivals.com and anyone can read about who's who. Therefore, if we continue to use the current draft system, I think it makes sense that the probability of scouting the best players in the draft gets much much higher, instead of it all being really random. Maybe there could be some sort of "obscurity factor (OF)" assigned to the draftees that affects things and takes additional scouting to discover a player with a low OF. So the probability of scouting the best players would be a product of reputation (directly related to skills) and obscurity (how likely will any team find this player), weighted more on the reputation side. That would add both realism (don't tell me the NJ Nets don't know who John Wall is and haven't scouted him yet) and would actually help the worst teams before helping the better teams.

- Let's increase the ability of some rookies. Yes, LeBron James is a very rare player who came into the draft at a very young age and already had skills that, if he were a BB player, would be well above "respectable". So these sorts of players shouldn't show up in every draft, maybe only one out of every, say, three. But there is a range, something between "respectable" rookies and "uberRookie". I think drafting an impact player would be one way to help a bad team, and within one season or two, as we see can actually happen in the real game. I'm not talking instant all-star, but I'm talking all-star pretty darn quick. Look at how quickly Derick Rose became the best player on the Chicago Bulls. That sort of thing should be possible in a draft.

- Or, let's just dump the draft altogether and find a different way of pumping new players into the game. Yeah, the NBA, on which this game is primarily modeled, has a draft designed to help the the worst teams (but with a lottery to discourage deliberate tanking of games), but in BB, the last place teams relegate! It's not a matter of trying to help them get competitive in their league since these teams will suddenly (typically) be the one of the strongest, if not THE strongest team in their new league. Maybe they need these top draft picks since they could likely promote back up again in a couple of seasons or less, and the new player will help them compete then, but the whole relegating/promoting thing is not really all that compatible with a draft concept. But, what we replace this with... I really can't say right now. Maybe it's about scouting a nation-wide pool of players and bidding (I don't like that since it only helps wealthy teams), or maybe there's a total randomness to new player recruits...

It's complicated since I can't really think of something better than the draft, but at least with some alterations maybe I'll start to treat the draft the way I think the creators want us to.

Don't ask what sort of Chunks they are, you probably don't want to know. Blowing Chunks since Season 4!
This Post:
00
137519.31 in reply to 137519.30
Date: 3/29/2010 4:16:15 AM
AS Barroom Heroes
III.2
Overall Posts Rated:
10191019
Second Team:
Lone Pine Productions
Simply put, and for the 100th time, the draft is BORING AS HELL. You dont' do ANYTHING at all for 99.999% of the season.

The entire draft experience is made up of the following:
- deciding how much to invest on the scouts at the beginning of the season (3 minutes maybe?)
- MAYBE changing that once or twice during the season (another 3 minutes maybe?)
- ordering the list of players once it comes out (5 minutes? maybe 10 if you scouted a lot of players?)
- seeing who you ended up with (another two minutes)


Perhaps if the entire process were more interactive and fun during the season then so many people wouldn't completely disregard what should be one of the main aspects of the game.

This is my issue with the draft. And notice that not once did I mention the value of the drafted players in general, and the ones I have been selecting.

This Post:
00
137519.32 in reply to 137519.1
Date: 3/29/2010 10:32:01 AM
Overall Posts Rated:
88
I found Joe Bronson in the draft...he's now one of the best guards in the USA as a 22 year old. There is no way I would have been able to buy such a player on the market, especially considering my lack of funding.

This season I picked up an 18 YO MVP potential with a $4 220 salary.

The draft is a combination of luck and skill, just like it is in the NBA. You could have had the #1 pick in 2006 and your only real option would be Rondo (in retrospect), or you could be picking in 2003 where D-Wade, Chris Bosh, Lebron James, David West and some others would have been available. That's how drafts work.

Last edited by 420Monta at 3/29/2010 1:02:29 PM

From: Azariah

This Post:
00
137519.33 in reply to 137519.29
Date: 3/29/2010 7:44:04 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
103103
Concept question: would you prefer the draft, or something ala a HT "youth academy"?

I can say from having played HT for a spell before and after youth academies, the academies do a great job of rewarding effort & thought put into the player generation process, and level out some of the randomness. That being said, they do a GREAT job rewarding effort -- if you half ass your youth academy, you ain't gonna get anything out of it. So from that perspective, the draft (or HT's older "youth pull" system) is much nicer for casual players and maintains more of a level (albeit capriciously distributed) system.

This Post:
00
137519.34 in reply to 137519.33
Date: 3/29/2010 8:32:50 PM
AS Barroom Heroes
III.2
Overall Posts Rated:
10191019
Second Team:
Lone Pine Productions
Concept question: would you prefer the draft, or something ala a HT "youth academy"?

I can say from having played HT for a spell before and after youth academies, the academies do a great job of rewarding effort & thought put into the player generation process, and level out some of the randomness. That being said, they do a GREAT job rewarding effort -- if you half ass your youth academy, you ain't gonna get anything out of it. So from that perspective, the draft (or HT's older "youth pull" system) is much nicer for casual players and maintains more of a level (albeit capriciously distributed) system.

If you wish to maintain an NBA-style format, then the draft is fine.
What I would like is to have the same level of interaction during the entire season that you have with the HT youth academies, here in the BB draft. I don't think it's an impossible thing to achive if the scouting process is done the right way.
At the moment though, there is simply no comparison between the youth system in HT and the one in BB.

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