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lol real great job on the simulation

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From: WFUnDina

This Post:
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229143.24 in reply to 229143.23
Date: 11/5/2012 10:56:49 AM
Overall Posts Rated:
394394
A few years back, my wife and I, were leaving Vegas. I was up 300$ from card tables. On the way out the casino I wanted to make 1 big bet, you know double it or nothing. So I was watching this 1 roulette wheel. It kept hitting red. It was up to 13 straight red numbers. I watched hit red a few more times, it was about 17 or 18 straight red, so I put my winnings on black. It had to hit right. Wrong. So I kept watching until it hit black. 22 times it hit red consecutively, then a green. It went back to red two more times before hitting black. Long story short, I wasn't leaving Vegas with the 300$!

This Post:
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229143.25 in reply to 229143.24
Date: 11/5/2012 12:22:12 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
4545
This is the old Gambler's Fallacy which is a favorite of mine. Remember watching a movie where some kid was like...roulette just hit Red 12 times in a row. Black is FOR SURE going to hit. And they hit and won.

He had a 50% chance of winning, not 51% or 52% becaues the wheel showed Red the last 12 times. If he would have said a bit earlier, red just hit 7 times in a row, black is going to hit this next one FOR SURE...he would have lost 5 times in a row.

With games of pure chance you can't include previous results. The wheel has no memory. If anything, I would be inclined to choose the color that keeps getting picked because maybe the wheel or marble has a flaw that gives it a preference for Red?

I think the buzzerbeater random calculation is very minimal in impact and mimics real results. The results here are pretty standard and I usually win games I expect to win and have close games where the level is pretty close.

This Post:
11
229143.27 in reply to 229143.26
Date: 11/5/2012 10:12:56 PM
Headless Thompson Gunners
Naismith
Overall Posts Rated:
716716
Second Team:
Canada Purple Haze BC
it's quite the rush even if it is a losing proposition
I swear you must spell the word the - hte 90% of the time

This Post:
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229143.28 in reply to 229143.27
Date: 11/5/2012 10:51:26 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
774774
True. It is meant as entertainment and should be considered as such. You go for a couple hours, spend within your budget, and expect to get none of it back. If it is to make money, you're an idiot.

Say two hours at a ball game, the ticket is $100.
You can spend a couple hours playing blackjack and lose $100.

Someone might find the entertainment value of playing blackjack higher than watching A-Rod strike out 4 times a game or Rich Garces trot (waddle) in from the bullpen during a baseball game. Although both of those are more entertaining for me.

If you remember me, then I don't care if everyone else forgets.
From: WFUnDina

This Post:
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229143.30 in reply to 229143.29
Date: 11/6/2012 12:17:03 AM
Overall Posts Rated:
394394
I'm not encouraging gambling or do it often, 3 times in 18 years. I brought the story up for the randomness factor.

This Post:
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229143.31 in reply to 229143.30
Date: 11/6/2012 12:19:06 AM
Overall Posts Rated:
774774
I brought the story up for the randomness factor.


Just what BB needs, more randomness! ;)

If you remember me, then I don't care if everyone else forgets.
This Post:
00
229143.32 in reply to 229143.3
Date: 11/6/2012 4:54:58 PM
J&J team
II.4
Overall Posts Rated:
9797
in ligue under 12 years one time we won with result 90:6 so everithig is posible. (sory for my english)