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not because of a purported wildly unpredictable game engine. In the first game I had a large game shape advantage, which Coco mitigated for the second game.

so Coco had really bad GS when you played the 1st game? i wasn't aware of that. I thought he usually managed his minutes pretty well though? (the way you put it, i imagine his entire team going from the lowest sub level of respectable to proficient at the training update... how bad was it?)

Plus in the rematch, his starting SF got injured less than 10 minutes into the game!!! Wouldn't that at least partially negate his gains in game shape? I mean, you may have fully expected to lose the 2nd game, but would you really have predicted a 23 point blowout minus his starting SF?

In my last B3 match one can see the importance of game shape, as I won 106-44

well your B3 opponent was... starting multiple guys with inept GS.. lol. i know what you're getting at though.

I hoped the #2 seeded Bruins would knock him out for me, but for whatever reason he crunch timed on the last game of the regular season which made that impossible.

Actually, if the Bruins didn't beat me I would have finished in 2nd place. And you would have faced the Bruins in round 1. (2nd place vs. LMA would've arguably been a worse match-up than facing you on the road)

I do remember a few of his starters jumped from respectable to proficient game shape, and as you mentioned, his starting SF was injured in the second game, so that is why they were two different games with two very different results, not because of a radically volatile game engine. Also, I disagree with the idea that a starter should automatically perform better than his backup against any team, as the backup could match up better against the opponent, or, despite a lower salary, perform better because of higher game shape. And plus Ramos was his lowest-salaried starter by a large margin, so his starters' total salaries didn't drop by much.




Last edited by Ortho Stice at 6/28/2012 3:55:46 PM

so would you expect to lose by 20-25 points each time under the same circumstances?
it seemed like you were slightly surprised at the outcome at the time too. (of course maybe i misremember that?)

a few guys going from possibly high respectable to proficient is only a little over 1 GS only. it seems a little hard to believe that 1+ GS for some players provides the same effect as out-efforting someone. that just doesn't seem right at all. And I don't see how extra Shlomo Peretz (close to half of his starter's salary) + you not using Julien Crapart any minutes would help him. (Crapart averaged a 9 game rating for you over the course of S18.)

there's nothing wrong with some variance in games. it happens in real basketball. not at all unheard of for a team to completely blowout their opponent one game, only to lose the series. without major tactical adjustments either.

aha... my memory was right. quoting you from Season 18:

I'm really too confused to be upset with this loss. I did think Coco would knock me out of the playoffs all season long, but my win over him last week gave me some hope. I mean, I wouldn't be surprised by the blow out in a vacuum as I consider his team far superior to mine, but it's strange in light of my win vs. him. And I didn't play my 8k SF this time around, so I thought my lineup would be stronger. I guess I should've known my luck against him would fall short tonight, when a random D.IV team messaged me wishing me "good luc".

so you were confused by the outcome, had at least a little hope of possibly winning, thought your lineup would be even stronger without Crapart, and lament that your luck fell short.


and now, quoting Coco himself:

Both games were flukes. I shouldn't have lost last week, and shouldn't have won by 20 today. The gap at ww's arena is 5-10 points, but of course it can get bigger if they get into foul trouble and I shoot free throws decently and it gets smaller if I miss a bunch of free throws as I did last week. Wozz's calculator had this as a 69% win for me with a 6 pt gap, which seems spot on.

He states that *both* games were flukes, and that it should have been about a 6 point game.


But now you've changed your mind and are insistent that it had nothing to do with "a radically volatile game engine." The question is why have you now changed your mind? And why do you seem so certain of this new belief?

Super Mario!

If you want to interrogate me as if I'm a detainee at Guantanamo Bay, then fine, but I refuse to say what you want to hear, no matter how many times you waterboard me. My old comment was said without introspection, while my new comments have the benefit of my deeper knowledge of the game and increased scrutiny.

All I'm saying is that those two games are incomparable, because while superficially the same, they're quite different because of differing game shape and players. The loss of my big game shape advantage is a large reason why his team's performance greatly improved, and counter-intuitively the SF change in the second game benefited his team. His starting SF had a negative +/- before he was injured, and his cache of SF after that defended my SF very well, likely due to my SF playing the entire game while fresh legs constantly guarded him.

Again, I disagree with the idea that a starter should automatically perform better than his backup against any team, as the backup could match up better against the opponent, or, despite a lower salary, perform better because of higher game shape, and also because of the aforementioned fresh legs vs. tired ones.

Basically, you ignored the complexity of the comparison, which is completely understandable, as is your stubbornness to admit your assessment was careless, and because of my benevolence and love of humankind I forgive your barbarous attacks on me, and the future bite marks I'll suffer from making this post.

in the first game, my C position posted 115 pp100, and Vega went 3-13 in 38 minutes there. Mocarski (who split his time between backup PF and backup C went 6-14). That's where the randomness happened.

Agaliatolis got minutes at center and scored 28 points on 19 shots in the game, so I'm sure he raised the PP100.

EDIT: you didn't *exactly* say this, sorry, I'm still hyper-adrenalinic from the Italy-Germany soccer game: but the substance of the post remains the same

You are forgiven.

(http://www.sfbayview.com/wp-content/uploads/waterboarding...)

but I refuse to say what you want to hear, no matter how many times you waterboard me.

typical enemy combatant...

benevolence and love of humankind

Those are code words for hating America. And freedom.

My old comment was said without introspection, while my new comments have the benefit of my deeper knowledge of the game and increased scrutiny.

but, your latest comments were made without future Ortho's even deeper knowledge! And obviously prior to to future you getting vanity braces. Which completely changes everything. (http://www.champaignschools.org/central/business/johnson/...)
You may scoff at the notion that getting vanity braces changes you, but it does. You're like a totally different person after that. Trust me.


Note to future you:
On the day of your eldest child's wedding, i will find you, kidnap you, & re-waterboard you. (Even though future you will have already said what i wanted to hear previously). There is no stopping this.

(but try to enjoy the rehearsal dinner anyway, yo)


Last edited by shikago at 6/29/2012 11:46:36 AM

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Calum - Do you accept credit?