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i don't understand what gave you the impression that im confused by pp100, in any way other than the logistics of it.

When you say it shows anything about actual results is what makes me think this.

It does so on the match day's specified factor values.

This is exactly what I said EXCEPT I said average because as stated by others with probability analogies the number value you get would be the average or expected value.

If additionaly is compared to previous matches pp100 performances, then i value it to be a very useful tool in understanding what's right and wrong in my team's offense and what needs tweaking or changing.

100% agree. I'd even take this one step further and compare a specific players PP100 over numerous games against the same opponent while using different tactics.

I appreciate your testing efforts, but playing scrubs with possibly "erratic" skillsets and fielding teams of four each and a lucky fan, isn't good for credible results.
But even in your examples, we can see two great similarities. He attempted the exact same number of field goals and had pretty similar pp100s, in both games

My point exactly. Similar PP100 in both games yet a 16pt swing in ACTUAL performance. How can you see that and then think PP100 has anything to do with actual results?

FYI, those matches with 4-man scrub lineups may not be ideal but we did attempt to match up similarly skilled players and at the same positions each game. Therefore your "erratic" skillsets is void as is the GS, enthusiasm, tactics, etc. Again, not ideal but I'd say we did a pretty decent job of isolating GDP given we determined a rather large swing and that seems to be the consensus thus far by the majority. That's another topic though.

I'm not trying to argue and maybe I'm stuck on semantics here but when you relate PP100 to game results I just think, NO! I think of it as a way to gage how you stack up against your opponent all things considered but relates absolutely nothing to the results. In other words, I tend to think of it as a pre-game report where you would predict performance but then you watch the game to find out what really happened.

I think there is still some confusion here about what it represents.

Let use Probability theory to help explain. And a Dice example.

Standard 6 sided dice right? It has a probability of landing on the number 3 = 1 in 6. This is the probability.

In real life however, you might roll the dice 30 times, and say it landed on the number 3, 20 times...... The probability before, during and after the rolls is, always will be, 1 in 6, and forever it will be. Nothing about the fact that it landed 20 times, or if only landed 0 times on 3, the probability never changes.
However, the % of rolls during ur 30 rolls that landed on the number 3, was 20 in 30 = 66.6%

So treat PP100 shots, like probability. And the FG% like the actual end result. Two very different concepts right?

right. hopefully this clears it up. However your questions still stand?
eg:
How can a player have shot zero shots, yet have a PP100 of 50? (or whatever)

well, just like the dice example..... his PP100 might be 50 (ie: Probability leading into the game)... but in the end, his FG% was 0.

Now, why did he not take a shot? if Points per 100 shots = 50 then, shouldn't that indicate some kind of shot being taken?

i guess thats a valid argument, but lets think about it contextually.

In game, the PG had 4 other players to pick from to let shoot the ball.... The following was there PP100 scores
PG - 90
SG - 120
SF - 90
PF - 75
C - 50

And - playing RnG offense - so - who do you think the PG should pass to, to let shoot the ball?... Is it starting to make sense now?

Thinking about it in real life, think Dennis Rodman - He probably had a PP100 of like 50... but he still shot the ball? OH no way was Jordan about to let Rodman in on the offence. hence why he only averaged f-all.

Is this starting to make sense now? The PP100 is like a probability thing.

now, someone suggested that it is not afected by anything in game - i think this is a confusing statement. I would challange this to say that - PP100 IS affected by the opposition defence and players and by ur own team's offensive setup. But this still does not mean that the number of shots a player SHOULD take during a game is related to the PP100.

Im Summary - its like saying this
"IF the player took 100 shots in the game, he would score this many points - only IF... but because he sucks, the PG is NEVER going to let him shoot. BUT, if he DID shoot 100 shots, then his PP100 would be X. "

make sense? hopefully this helps :)

if you so curious about real ppp make excel spreadsheet and count them. its very eazy.

THEORETICAL ppp is VERY USEFULL indicator of the succes of tactical choices. you can see missmatches and prepare for them next time. I always play against 2nd strongest league team basic offence man to man with standart ;lineup, look up ppp, game shapes, tactics used, make conlusions, prepare next time for the finals and whooo a blowout win for me if you smart its very usefull, in some ocasions where oponent has loopholes you can make like +30 pts by using missmatches. for example you played your pf at center, despite he is like 10is 14js and he shot against predicting 16 id, which you can tell about ratings and other games pp against other centers, so you can compare how well your ofense guys works against same defence as oponents guys. So if my shity IS guy ppp is like 105 against great IS i make decision, if guy is in great shape he is very crap at OD, thats why ppp so increased and was at like 105 instead of predictable 50-60. Next time i play Patient with that pf or my best shooter at center i get 125-140 ppp, depending how crappy his od actually was, my shooter drops like 50 points 65percent acuracy,m i blowout the game:D

Another example is despite being crappy shooter oponent pg scored high ppp, then you can decide ur defender hasnt high enough id to defend his layups, so next time you let ur sf defend him and he is shut out, you win game:)

like someone said basketball game is won by missmatches. so find them, use them,dont lets ur oponent use them efectrively and youll get huge advantage.

Last edited by Gajus Julijus Cezaris at 1/24/2014 12:55:49 PM

How is this post any useful to anybody? Please, next time, try to read the topic first and then answer on the things actually written.

I think it is useful. I think similar about ppg and i read with curious his post, so don't complain. Read and use if you want, if you don't want read, you haven't to do it, but you should let other person read this intresting post.

Anyway, we can and do have ZERO pp100!

(68630988)

Anonymous player had zero attempted field goals.
Although, because he also had 0/4 FTs that were not caused by shooting fouls, the question remains on whether attempted field goals fouled, that result in FTs, influence the pp100s.

I believe that this will happen when you do not set a lineup correctly and the 'Lucky fan' plays in that position.

Same thing happens with a walk-over (66029537) - EVERYONE got a 0.0 (party)

So yer, thats not really a 0.0 - Lucky fans don't count

I didn't post a forfeit 50-0 game, but one that was actually played and did produce a boxscore and the lucky fan did actually "register" stats(he wasn't zero in every statistical category).
Have you encountered many not forfeited games where a position, lucky fan or not, gets zero pp100?

I know you didn't post a forfeit game
I was merely adding to the conversation that forfeit games also produce 0.0 PP100 results.

In your game, the lucky fan got the same result as a lucky fan in a forfeit game.
So regardless of the game, if a lucky fan plays in that position for 49 mins, the pp100 should = 0.0

I have never ever seen a real player in a real game, get 0.0 PP100
I found a player who is 47 years old and has a salary of less than $1000, who played 48 mins @ SF in the following game. (65817770)
His game rating was 0.5, however the PP100 was still 36.7

I can only imagine, that his stats are 'Atrocious' everything. In fact, im pretty suer ive seen the owner, abigfishy, post about how all his stats were this.

Needless to say, I think its impossible for a game to have a real player have 0.0 pp100

I know you didn't post a forfeit game
I was merely adding to the conversation that forfeit games also produce 0.0 PP100 results.

In your game, the lucky fan got the same result as a lucky fan in a forfeit game.
So regardless of the game, if a lucky fan plays in that position for 49 mins, the pp100 should = 0.0

I have never ever seen a real player in a real game, get 0.0 PP100
I found a player who is 47 years old and has a salary of less than $1000, who played 48 mins @ SF in the following game. (65817770)
His game rating was 0.5, however the PP100 was still 36.7

I can only imagine, that his stats are 'Atrocious' everything. In fact, im pretty suer ive seen the owner, abigfishy, post about how all his stats were this.

Needless to say, I think its impossible for a game to have a real player have 0.0 pp100

If it's possible, shikago would have done it, but I don't feel like checking all the PL games. Here's a recent one with a PP100 as low as 5.1, though: (68585917)