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OUtside tactics and players require an overall team build of stats to make flow work.

That's unproven. I have seen no evidence that better flow = better outside shooting. The evidence is there for inside tactics but not for outside ones and that may actually be part of the problem.

Last edited by Lemonshine at 9/5/2019 4:33:58 AM

What I would like to see is someone trying to 'game' the GE, trying something unconventional. There are essentially 2 things you can try as an outside oriented team:
1) No passing 1 to 3
2) No DR

Now, no. 2) is nigh impossible at top level, because the players won't have enough outside skills if DR/HA are low (it would require a significant change in training). No.1 is an interesting proposition and could be tested even in lower leagues. Since what we know is that guarded/unguarded outside shots seem to have similar percentages it's possible that the outcome of such an experiment would be:
- 1-3 will take an even higher proportion of shots and big men will pass more
- 1-3 may take a higher proportion of 3s and/or drives depending on their skills
- No change or marginal change to the FG%

This could be a team with a lower number of jump shots, low assist numbers and more 3s and drives. Almost all jump shots and 3s would be contested, but if it's true that guarded/unguarded shots have a similar FG% why would you care? And even if the probability is low, guarded shots have at least a chance of leading to FTs. This seems a smarter experiment than trying to get the big men to take more outside shots and should be salary efficient allowing for SB for example. I'd definitely try this if I didn't have training in the way.

Of course one could go 2) with big men in inside oriented teams, but I already know what happens in that case if you have good PA throughout: the player will take a lot more dunks and inside shots than average and cut the layups, which means he may even benefit from having no DR, as he'd be more efficient. I started a 80 TSP player for several seasons in D1 and he had 1 HA and 1 DR.

Last edited by Lemonshine at 9/5/2019 10:38:57 AM

FLow effects shot quality and shooting %.

It has been charted and even admitted by BBs in the past. Don't ask me to dig it up. Maybe you weren't around then. I don't know.

Numbers suggest otherwise. Your statement is acceptable for inside shots not for outside. More research is needed but the numbers do not suggest a large effect of Flow if any. For example when I did the analysis of B3 games for several seasons, it turned out that 3 pointers in Motion and R&G actually had a worse TS% when open (by 5% and 10%). In any case only about 25-30% of those shots was open anyway.

It may be that a few hundred shots was not a big enough sample but still. Once you start looking at the results you find a lot of stuff that makes no sense: there are 3 type of shot that have 0% chance of going in when open and >0% when guarded (fade away, hooks and turnaround jumpers). That was 300 out 30k open shots in the whole sample, but it is abnormal.

Anyway let's see if 20/20 JS/JR with no flow works I guess. Good luck making the players and testing it.

I wouldn't think you need 20/20 and in any case you can check this at lower levels as well, it doesn't need to be D1 or B3 level.

bad shot selection

Inside shots have terrible FG% in Motion, R&G and Princeton, just like 3 pointers are bad in LI and LP. So arguably just like in LI you want to get dunks, inside shots and layups, in outside offenses you want jumpers and 3 pointers. PA on the guards works well in inside offenses because makes the efficient shots more likely. Arguably it works the other way for outside offenses. So even if my data was lacking and there is a limited effect of flow on jump shots (likely, but limited) and 3 pointers (data says probably no), you still may benefit because you increase the number of 'good' shots your team will take.

Last edited by Lemonshine at 9/5/2019 10:50:13 PM

Wait.?? So Od stops inside shots. So its od/id/sb. And Od being the most useful in all 3. In all aspects ?.

I'm really bewildered by training inside defense all this time. I trained out side defense as well. But this new league is full of strong teams Even with a center with 12sb and 14sb and everybody with 10 od I cannt win a game. It make no sense but after reading. What you expressed

I understand now. My only thing is this why doesnt 2-3 work zone if od is the bread &butter of defense?

Ok. I'd like to ask.

Say for example if you have all 3 sg,pg,sf 18+ passing and 18+ handling. Could this beat Od and make flow better for outside offense ?