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Li/ m2m/ TIE
GDP: 'fast'.
Hoping one GDP is enough in LI vs LI. They could of course low post in which case we are screwed but we have to take risks.
I was thinking about guessins 'inside', which would negate any advantage they get by playing LP, but I think its more likely that they will play motion than LI so we would be totally screwed in that case. Oh well, unless we get lucky and they play R&G, PtB this game will be a loss and 50-50 matchup with LI vs LI.
Not taking as many gambles as with Chechs (besides, choice there was obvious) because now PD might actually matter, and I think we have some chance of winning with one correct GDP while we had none against Czechs


90% sure they are playing Low Post after all.
Screwed up this one badly. Going to be a blowout :/

20-31 after 1Q. 7 fouls, after which France got 12 FT. Ridiculous. Entire effort put in against Czech has just gone to waste. PD will be screwed up, and all because I decided not to put in 'inside' as a guess in addition to 'fast'.....
Not having enough balls to take a risk this time cost us dearly
53-35 after 18 minutes of game time.........

Last edited by damian13ster at 8/18/2014 2:04:46 PM

You can toggle tactics on/off at the top. What did they pick?

I don't get the "fast" prediction. You went from best GDP guess in BB history to worst GDP guess I've ever seen in one week. Oh well, you get about a dozen freebies for the Czech game and your prior work haha. :p (sidenote: I'll look so dumb if they did play PtB or RnG)

Cant do that for NT games. Why was it the worst pick? Their PtB last season looked ridiculous. They did play R&G in semis last season. It wouldnt hurt us very much if they went with motion.
So it was either PtB or LI vs motion or LP. 50-50 guess. This time I chose the wrong option.
Anyway, looking at the scoreline, the advantage they have in every stat, we are just not there. Wouldnt win with 2 right choices either since LP is actually decent tactic.
We beat Czechs only because they used weak tactic and because we got 2 GDP correct. And we beat them barely. That really tells us just how much superior those teams are. Or just go to TL and see what kind of players they work with :D jaw-dropping.
We will be in a dogfight to make it into the second round, and we can fight for more if we win next 2 games but I wouldnt bet my money on it.

besides. they get tons of FT, and if they miss them they rebound and get fouled again on a putback. Ridiculous. Looks like CT vs TIE when it comes to rebounding, TO and fouls.... (we are in the penalty and Laurent fouled out after 90 second of playing time)

Unofficial info:
They played LP/m2m and guessed 'inside'. Got way outsmarted there.
Anyway, looks like they also played 'normal', so it hurts less because we wouldnt win under any circumstances with them using extra effort, so this just cost us PD (and I will be pissed if we dont get into semis because of that but doubt we will come close)

Last edited by damian13ster at 8/18/2014 2:41:15 PM

Plot wist:
Hong Kong is beating Czech Republic. I really hope they can win against Finland (they will face CT, no doubt) otherwise the win against them wouldnt count in 2nd stage ! :D

This loss is on me. I did some poor choices but GDP is random as hell and this time it backfired.
The fact that I was on holidays and couldnt do real research until very last minue before the game doesnt help.
I hoped for somebdoy to step up and make analysis but really cant expect it so its all good.
now we really need Czech Republic to actually get into the second round so our win against them counts.....
Not to mention beating Suomi and Hong Kong. There is high possibility that we will be facing CT from both of those teams.

Last edited by damian13ster at 8/18/2014 4:11:35 PM

Their outside ratings have looked unfathomably bad this season. They are worse than D.I teams in that regard. Not sure how their team has changed since last season where they were elite outside. Could just be that the guy they use at SF has no shooting skills.

Just my opinion, but I don't completely believe we're the underdog in these games. Against Czech, our ratings were closer to 30 points better than the actual 13. GDP makes it harder for an absolute, but I'm almost positive we'd have had much better ratings even without GDP. I think our GS was worse too (Hall didn't play, Sammons barely played, etc). Against France, our GS was was much worse, they hit and we missed on 1 GDP, and our ratings were still extremely close. We would've unarguably had much better ratings with equal GS, GDP, effort, etc.

Btw I hope none of my posts sound like I'm attacking. I don't think you're doing anything wrong, just trying to argue that it's conceivable we're better than you think and that we shouldn't read too much into the randomness of one simulation per week. There's nothing definitive about singular simulations against comparable teams.

I am aware you are not attcking. I just believe you follow ratings too much, instead of looking at the quality of players and GS. Players from top teams are better rounded, which isnt always reflected in ratings.
Just look at Suomi- France game....
Looking at ratings alone you wouldnt think that France would come out on top. Its the same case in a game against us. The ratings look close even considering GDP. They did put extra effort, but it alone wouldnt get 20+ point win. Ratings dont tell the entire story.

Unfortunately we will be underdogs in following games as well. With no GDp and same effort that wouldnt necessarily be the case, but situation and schedule of those teams point heavily for them CTing us (at least Hong Kong)

Last edited by damian13ster at 8/18/2014 4:43:36 PM

I have to agree with Stajan. I think our team is being underrated, and we are close to on par with these teams, it's just GS has such a big influence. Against Czechs we had good GS, and unfortunately we didn't against France (and I don't think anything you could have done could have helped us beat them). Hopefully, we improve our GS for next week, and for my part, I'll be trying to get Sammons 59 mins this week.

Yeah, unfortunately PD hurts, although 1-1 with France anc Czechs and -8 PD is not bad. I would have taken it before tournament.
And you are right about ratings, as evidenced with our win against Czechs only by 13 points despite 2x hit GDP and them using weaker tactic.
Last two games will be very interesting. Using enthusiasm will become crucial now.


Wonder whats the outlook in Canadian community. Do we play it safe, use up enthusiasm to get to the 2nd round, or do we take risks in order to get a shot at semis (small chance) risking that we place 5th in the group?
There is a plan crystalizing in my head but I would still like to know the opinion of other Canadian managers and will take it into consideration. Please do not put your thoughts in the open forum. There is an off-site for that and the thread will be created in the evening (we dont want opposition to be able to tell what we will do, right?). BB-mail is also an option.
Thanks!

of course all of those deliberations won't make a difference if we dont get top GS for remaining two games, so anyone with NT player (and I will be sending BB-mails to managers that I suspect dont visit forum regularly), please do make sure they get the correct amount of minutes next couple of weeks. GS training will be appreciated as well (especially this week)

Last edited by damian13ster at 8/19/2014 9:33:23 AM

Threads created. Everybody to the offsite!

Scouring through individual players and looking at past training, etc it is really impossible that that particular France team would compare to our quality with equal GS and no GDP. I'm on board with GS being the biggest factor for that result.

And yep, not liking our schedule. Probably couldn't have been drawn any worse. Finland could norm or CT next game. I think HK should be better than France in that next game, but France can norm them and be favourited, leading to HK saving norm or CT against us in our final game if they think it's necessary.

Last edited by Stajan at 8/19/2014 2:32:40 PM