Cockchin is only equal favourite because he is Victorian. You get less attention when outside of Vic. I'll laugh when he only polls about 18 votes.
This has to be one of the more ridiculous statements. The betting agencies are hardly going to install him as a favourite because he's Victorian. They're out to make money, they don't care what state he's from.
There's a reason Cotchin is equal favorite with most agencies, he had a pretty consistent year and you would expect him to poll well in most games Richmond won. It will probably come down to whether he can pick up 1s and 2s in games they lost.
The problem is, I can make a good case for why a number of the other 'more established' players won't win it...
I think Gaz can win, but playing for the Suns will obviously hurt him.
Pendlebury and Swan both missed a few games, with both having patches where they weren't at their best. The possibility of Sidebottom and Beams taking votes off them won't help either.
Jobe Watson should poll well early, but probably drops away towards the end when they start losing.
Scott Thompson is a decent roughie, especially considering they finished second on the ladder. Three votes in a 'soft game' e.g. against GC or GWS counts just the same as three votes vs Hawthorn.
I'm not really sure what your point is, apart from flat out abusing Lazz? The Tigers had a 'good' season in terms of where they've come from and where they're heading. They picked up some very good wins, but still had a few of those disastrous losses they've become famous for. All in all, the 10 - 12 spot is about right for them this season, with plenty of improvement still to come. I may have enjoyed giving Lazz some crap this season, but I see plenty of upside for Tigers in the next few years. If they can address the issues they had closing out games I could see them climbing into the 7 - 8 spot by 2014.
In all your talk about the Crows, I see not once did you mention the unbelievably soft draw they were handed. Two games each against GC, GWS and Port? Only one game against Hawthorn, Collingwood, Sydney and West Coast? Please. Considering they were handed a dream run into a top two spot, anything less than a Grand Final appearance would have to be considered a failure.