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BB Global (English) > Should BB Staff share this kind of information?

Should BB Staff share this kind of information?

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This Post:
11
315302.3 in reply to 315302.1
Date: 7/26/2022 7:50:12 AM
Overall Posts Rated:
77
http://imgtu.com/i/jzxwF0
http://imgtu.com/i/jzxwF0

This Post:
22
315302.5 in reply to 315302.4
Date: 7/26/2022 9:09:00 AM
Djstra
II.2
Overall Posts Rated:
3737
There are some interesting topics in this picture.

First of all, 92% win rate in simulation and lost 15 points in reality, the randomness played a role of 43 points PD, is it a normal distribution? What's the statistic confidence?

Second, I had expressed such opinion that randomness was too much nowadays, we are playing manager game instead of rolling a dice, we can't allow a few years efforts to be so easily and strongly affected by random factors.

Third, as the OP proposed, if huge randomness continues, I suggest BBs expose the win rate of the game so that everyone can access it, then we have better analysis of the game.

In the end, I have some thoughts about what's good randomness. Randomness is key to remain suspense for weaker teams. Each shot is determined by randomness but the accumulated randomness needs to be under control. 43 PD for a 100 points game is too much and I think 20 PD max is acceptable. Better randomness adjusts itself by doing negative feedback regulation to make the game random but under control overall.

This Post:
11
315302.7 in reply to 315302.5
Date: 7/26/2022 10:35:27 AM
Wasted Potential
II.1
Overall Posts Rated:
458458
Second Team:
Hazards to Society
Second, I had expressed such opinion that randomness was too much nowadays, we are playing manager game instead of rolling a dice, we can't allow a few years efforts to be so easily and strongly affected by random factors.


I agree that a little less randomness would be nice, but this 43 PD was most likely across hundreds and hundreds of simulations, and the 92% win rate sound about right for a team 12 points better. I think it would be more interesting to find what the range is of the middle 95 or 97%.

When just looking at the range of all simulations you are going to have outliers from games where one of your best players got injured in the 1st minute (happened to me in BBM) or where you had multiple unlucky foul outs. So I'm not too concerned with seeing that number without further context as to the distribution of the scores.

This Post:
00
315302.8 in reply to 315302.7
Date: 7/26/2022 11:29:52 AM
Djstra
II.2
Overall Posts Rated:
3737
outliers from games where one of your best players got injured in the 1st minute

I agree under such condition you are definitely unlucky. But still, negative feedback should help reduce the impact of randomness. For example,
the GE may calculate in the beginning which team has more skills advantage and even if injury happens, the rest of the players have some boost because the injured player inspired them.

Back to the example of the picture, the team with 92%+ win rate had no foul out or injuries in that game, so I can blame all the bad luck to the randomness of shot FG.

This Post:
00
315302.10 in reply to 315302.9
Date: 7/26/2022 11:38:46 AM
Djstra
II.2
Overall Posts Rated:
3737
what are you trying to express?

In that game, no foul out or injuries, so in that game, randomness of shots play the job of randomness, which infers that randomness of shots can be huge.

Last edited by Djstra at 7/26/2022 11:57:31 AM

This Post:
22
315302.11 in reply to 315302.4
Date: 7/26/2022 12:13:40 PM
Isca Centurions
EBBL
Overall Posts Rated:
387387
Second Team:
Dartmoor Pumas
I think that type of information can be interesting if it's done for a couple of big games per season, like the B3 Final and World Cup Final. But when it's used it should be publically and in a consistent way, it shouldn't be provided on an ad-hoc basis.


It is just a fun tool that mainly focuses on showing the randomness of the GE, there's not much to learn from it, besides learning how "lucky" you got this time, it means nothing for the next time.


I think you can learn something from it.

For example this post (313659.10) regarding this game (119334645). Without BB-Justin's post a lot of managers would go away thinking that team were unlucky, when actually it seems the losing team might have been the weaker team after all. The same happens if win-rates and PD are provided, information is revealed. That's not always a bad thing of course, from what I've seen of Justin's forum posts he tends to find a careful balance. But if this tool is being used on request (I couldn't tell from OP if this is a one-off situation) then it is giving information to specific managers.



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