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Best III. League?

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228429.30 in reply to 228429.19
Date: 10/18/2012 4:17:54 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
498498
Thanks for the shoutout. :-)

Hopefully, the Simon Formula for league toughness isn't totally incomprehensible. It's built on a number of assumptions:

1) What makes a league tough is how its teams compare to other league's teams that are in the same positions vis-a-vis the post-season.
2) CR is twice as important as # of wins and PD in comparing teams.
3) In determining a league's toughness, the toughness of the #1 team is twice as important as the #2, which in turn is twice as important as the #3, which is twice as important as the #4.
4) The relegation games are 1/5 as important as the playoffs for determining toughness.
5) The toughness of the #5 and #8 teams doesn't matter, except in how they position other teams for the post-season.

It's not perfect, but it uses readily available data and directly relates to the post-season and HCA. And like any arbitrary system, provides grist for the mill. (BCS standings, anyone?)

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From: tripsatx

This Post:
00
228429.31 in reply to 228429.13
Date: 10/18/2012 4:39:57 PM
Harrisburg Hammerheads
IV.20
Overall Posts Rated:
1313
Nice work fewmit!

I'm not exactly certain what determines ones country ranking but I legitimately feel my team should not be ranked this high. I'm not even certain my team is the best in III.7 let alone all of Division III. I've been in III.7 since season 8 (albeit with one hiccup demoted season for season 11). I've been to the finals four times but have yet to break through to Division II as I've always faced superiors opponents in the finals.

Hopefully this will be my year, but man, nothing like these rankings to amp up the pressure on expectations...lol!!!

This Post:
00
228429.32 in reply to 228429.23
Date: 10/18/2012 5:13:44 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
597597
I would say your findings point to one thing here: Your formula is working out what div is the hardest to win (based on how good the top teams are), however I would define the "Toughest league" as one that is tough just to stay in it.

That's kinda what I went for in my first post to determine "toughest league". Here's the total list of just adding up the CR of all the teams (+500 per bot):

league rank
III.16 - 3240
III.14 - 3258
III.3 - 3267
III.12 - 3605
III.6 - 3649
III.7 - 3684
III.5 - 3755
III.10 - 3764
III.1 - 3819
III.9 - 3860
III.13 - 3906
III.15 - 3943
III.4 - 4092
III.11 - 4094
III.2 - 4175
III.8 - 6544

III.10 comes out a lot better here, and III.8 looks like the big wimp. I suppose you can look at this list as "the hardest league to avoid relegation in" ranking. A rough calculation compared to Simon's fine tuned formula, but some more fuel for debating.

tripsatx - sorry to jinx you with the shoutout One thing known to factor very high in the CR is cup performance, and your team has had deep runs the last two seasons.

Group hug!
This Post:
00
228429.33 in reply to 228429.24
Date: 10/18/2012 5:15:20 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
504504
Haha did it myself:

Teams in each league outside the top USA 336 teams (Total amount of teams in div's 1,2,and 3)

1 : 3 (371, 493, 582)
2 : 3 (407, 543, 626)
3 : 1 (417)
4 : 2 (372, 450)
5 : 2 (444, 760)
6 : 3 (364, 411, 474)
7 : 5 (348, 359, 398, 403, 486)
8 : 5 (456, 469, 495, 547, 2706)
9 : 0
10: 2 (349, 420)
11: 5 (353, 382, 397, 427, 436)
12: 2 (385, 449)
13: 3 (338, 369, 579)
14: 0
15: 3 (355, 383, 491) *Also has 334 and 335
16: 2 (351, 451)

So to me leagues 9 and 14 are the worst to be in, as every game will be a battle, due to everyone being a legit div3 squad at least. Where as 7, 8 and 11 are the best leagues to be in for teams rebuilding or just trying to stay in div3.

III.7 is a strange league indeed. the bottom 5 teams are all easy beats, yet the top 4 are ranked 30, 48, 61, and 68. Making it a very hard league to win for the average teams, but also a very easy league to not relegate for the average teams.

Hey, I'll let you know one of those "easy beats" beat the team ranked 48th in the country! :P

But honestly, I basically agree with your assessment. The gap between the top teams and bottom teams in our league is probably the largest of any league I've been in. (If we don't count bots)

Message deleted
This Post:
00
228429.35 in reply to 228429.31
Date: 10/18/2012 8:32:36 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
7070
While I definitely don't think that III.10 is the best D3 out there, I also don't think it is the worst. I certainly take a big part of the blame because I tanked the first 10 games of the season, so my PD, Cup performance, and country rank suffered greatly. But I bet there aren't a lot of leagues out there that are competitive enough top to bottom where the #7 team defeats the #1 team on the road (49358997).

Last edited by TheChamp at 10/18/2012 8:33:49 PM

This Post:
00
228429.36 in reply to 228429.31
Date: 10/18/2012 8:37:04 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
2424
Nice work fewmit!

I'm not exactly certain what determines ones country ranking but I legitimately feel my team should not be ranked this high. I'm not even certain my team is the best in III.7 let alone all of Division III. I've been in III.7 since season 8 (albeit with one hiccup demoted season for season 11). I've been to the finals four times but have yet to break through to Division II as I've always faced superiors opponents in the finals.

Hopefully this will be my year, but man, nothing like these rankings to amp up the pressure on expectations...lol!!!

Are you certain you will make the finals this season? I think I and especially Seaslugs are going to give you a run for your money.

This Post:
00
228429.37 in reply to 228429.36
Date: 10/18/2012 9:53:46 PM
Harrisburg Hammerheads
IV.20
Overall Posts Rated:
1313
Not certain at all. We'll see how I feel after our game on Saturday

From: E.B.W.

This Post:
00
228429.38 in reply to 228429.35
Date: 10/18/2012 10:18:28 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
26152615
Uh i think my Chuck Norris league is much harder.... Plus i think you kind of put your own league down by clearly showing that your leagues Number 1 seed is weak compared to all the other leagues and it doesn't matter if you beat him on the road as a low seed because you stated how you tanked the first 10 games of the season which means you wouldn't have been the 7th seed if you were trying and most likely would have been at least a 3rd seed IMO.

Murray/Harris/MPJ/Grant/Jokic - 2020 NBA Champs
From: TheChamp

This Post:
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228429.39 in reply to 228429.38
Date: 10/18/2012 11:41:48 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
7070
Uh i think my Chuck Norris league is much harder....

Of course it is, I wasn't saying it was the toughest. I was making the point that III.10 is not the worst D3 of all.

This Post:
00
228429.40 in reply to 228429.30
Date: 10/19/2012 4:56:04 AM
Overall Posts Rated:
112112
I'm not a fan of using PD and # of wins in any ranking comparing leagues on toughness, as all this does is measure a league's internal parity. This part of the formula rewards a league just as much for having exceptionally bad teams as it does for having exceptionally good teams, and it is impossible to distinguish between the two.

Everyone is gonna have different ideas of the best formula of course. To me the ideal formula would be something like...
square root of {[(350 - CR1)^2 + (350 - CR2)^2 + ... (350 - CR16)^2] / 16} where CRx is the country rank of each team. Subtracting each rating from 350 and then squaring it is just a method for weighting the better teams more heavily. I like it because if the sixth best team sucks relative to the first, they aren't weighted too heavily in this, but if they are almost as good as the best team, they are weighted heavily.

Of course there are major concerns with the reliability of WR/CR but I don't know any way around using them. Any ideal ranking would also consider PLs and Cup Games but I don't know any way to do that which would be remotely practical.

Last edited by w_alloy at 10/19/2012 5:03:41 AM

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