Ok, but you forgot the following pont: A team that has no shooters, and plays motion just to trap you in a quarter or two can not win the game, despite of eventually good free shots they get. But if a team has good shooters and good inside players their tactics will be difficult to determine. Which is in reality also the case...Orlando Magic last year for example were tactically very difficult to figure out.
but it is easier to figure out when you make the decision for a whole game, and even one quarter with the unlikely tactic could hurt the opponent if he defends right to the strength of the opponents. And as i said, even if you check out the opponent right, you most likely miss his tactics because the choiche of the quarters is totally random.
So it would mean, your ultimate goal as a manager would be to have a good balanced team with strength in both inside and outside players and defenders, so that you can vary your tactics easily from game to game
As i said before, this would be changing, that specialised teams get ***. But isn't that also tactic, to design a team which is hard to stop?
Right now you have teams only specialized in one tactic, and as you said, easy to figure out. In reality the perfect team is a strong team which can play any tactics well.
I also see in reality good teams, who mostly attack one way. I watch more german basketball, but maybe Alba berlin says you something, nearly all of their attacks are based on pick and roll which they perform pretty perfect - but if you could stop them doing it, they struggle.
Oldenburg, mostly plays on midrange on long distance shots, and get the championship last season. Göttingen works with a full court defense, and a real chaotic offense but managed to surprised the league since they are back in the premier division(with a small budget).
I think the balanced approach, also in reality isn't the majority and if you had an balanced team also todays offense like Base offense, push the ball and patient are pretty strong:
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