It is hard to stay up the first time you promote. Take a look at the recent history.
Season 25 promotes
WA IS A DUMP veteran survived and made semifinal.
hopelessly addicted second time relegated.
Whompas Donkeys first time survived.
peaceNroll first time relegated.
Season 24 promotes
Coin Collectors first time relegated.
TeamAkuma first time relegated.
Yarra Park Bears first time survived.
Persepolis Immortals first time won the ABBL championship wow.
Season 23 promotes
WA IS A DUMP veteran relegated.
West Indies first time survived for one season then relegated.
Stone Slashers first time survived.
The Winnerz first time relegated.
Season 22 promotes
Guanzheng Goldfish second time survived.
Awesome^.- first time survived for one season then relegated.
West Island Tigers first time relegated.
adams guns second time relegated.
Season 21 promotes
Slam ! second time survived.
Snuffies veteran relegated.
Pancakes with Jam and Cream veteran survived.
Urmummas first time survived.
So of those 20 promotes over the last five seasons
9 relegated right away
2 relegated in their second season
Of the 12 that promoted for the first time only Urmummas, Stone Slashers, Persepolis Immortals, Yarra Park Bears and Whompas Donkeys are still in the ABBL.
Out of those 20 promotes the only ones to make the semifinals have been Stone Slashers, Pancakes with Jam and Cream, Guanzheng Goldfish, WA IS A DUMP and Persepolis Immortals. Persepolis Immortals went on to win the championship. Almost all of those have been from the much weaker Big 8 with Guanzheng Goldfish the only team to break into the exclusive Big 8 semifinals club who have 11 of the last 12 semifinals appearances: Koopasaurus 4, Chelsea Seagulls 3 and Whitebeard 4. The three previous were all Whitebeard v WA IS A DUMP so the Big 8 has basically been the same four teams forever.