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Playoffs or 5th Place?

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214533.34 in reply to 214533.33
Date: 4/21/2012 1:57:14 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
455455
You're not making much sense anymore. I'm betting I what is known, you seem to be betting on the unknown. That's your opinion but doesn't have much of a logical base. It is you that is playing the 'lottery' in this instance, not me.

Not sure why you're digging your heals in here but I'm guessing it's because you're finished 3rd or 4th place and lost in the first 2 rounds for about 4-5 seasons in a row now. So basically, you need to believe that you're not losing money by making the playoffs. And it looks like you're heading down the exact same path this season.

Personally, I believe that you've lost yourself hundreds of thousands of dollars with that strategy. Maybe if you start embracing other strategies, your results will be different.

From: Stajan

This Post:
00
214533.36 in reply to 214533.29
Date: 4/21/2012 3:52:15 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
146146
My attendance has indeed taken a SEVERE hit this season, and in my past game despite being 18-0 heading in, and having 5 balls on my fan survey, my attendance dropped down to 57%. So there is credibility to the discussion that missing the playoffs, or relegating affects your attendance in such a way that it taps into the short term savings you have by tanking or not paying salaries for 2 weeks during the post season.

Relegation absolutely destroys your attendance revenue. It's a MASSIVE hit that's completely unavoidable.
Missing the playoffs is only mildly unpleasant, but not debilitating in any way.

Millions of dollars difference between relegating or simply missing the playoffs and avoiding relegation for a D.I team. Probably $2m on the small scale, $5m on the high scale. I don't know if BBs are aware of how unrealistic the relegation penalty is. I'm pretty confident a 0-22 team would make more money than a 22-0 team that has just demoted if they were in the same league with the same expenses, same merchandise, same arena size, etc. Doesn't make much sense to me.

This Post:
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214533.37 in reply to 214533.36
Date: 4/21/2012 4:29:30 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
455455
But who makes more money with attendence, revenue, tv etc? The worst team in the NBA or the best team in the NBDL? Clearly the worst team in the NBA would.

In that respect, one could argue that it's realistic. But I don't follow European Football which has a ture relegation system. That's probably the best model to use to gauge what is fair.

This Post:
00
214533.38 in reply to 214533.37
Date: 4/21/2012 5:22:45 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
406406
I think the Bobcats would love to make as much money as the Lakers or Heat, or whatever contending team does...

This Post:
00
214533.39 in reply to 214533.37
Date: 4/21/2012 6:58:26 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
146146
I was talking about the demotion penalty's affect on attendance, not attendance revenue in general in lower-tiered leagues. There's a demotion penalty of sorts, a promotion bonus of sorts, and neutral (a team repeating the league). The demotion penalty is gigantic and you're at a gigantic disadvantage financially when you enter the league upon demoting.

Using the neutral attendance revenue as a baseline, I'd estimate a promoting team has the ability to make 110-115% of what neutral can make and a demoting team 50% of what neutral can make. Less maybe? I don't know. It was huge when I demoted. I reduced prices like 35% all-around and only sold out 47%.

Last edited by Stajan at 4/21/2012 7:06:43 PM

From: lamchops

This Post:
00
214533.40 in reply to 214533.39
Date: 4/21/2012 7:48:22 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
4343
I would say the promotion bonus is even greater than 15%. When I promoted, I was making almost double, triple even, the revenue of the other teams in my league, with a pretty poor record. Granted, my roster was far less strong, but it is a very significant attendance bonus.

From: 7ton

This Post:
00
214533.41 in reply to 214533.30
Date: 4/21/2012 11:42:01 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
4545
What opportunity?

My league's average team salary = 700k
Away PO game income = 180k
Probability of advancing to 2nd PO game = i just assume 50% but it should be much lower.

Expected value of making 3rd/4th (as opposed to 5th)
= PO game income - 1 week salary + higher attendance income for next season
= 180k + 180k*50% - 700k + higher attendance income
= -430k + higher attendance income
(The higher attendance income should be further discounted because you will get it later rather than instantly but I'll just leave it here)

It all becomes apparent when you do the math. What opportunity are you talking about?

Last edited by 7ton at 4/21/2012 11:54:14 PM

From: CrazyEye

To: 7ton
This Post:
00
214533.42 in reply to 214533.41
Date: 4/22/2012 5:10:27 AM
Overall Posts Rated:
959959
I am at least sure that it is at least 3 per cent, if we count with that low number you pay 100k for th chanche for the second round where you also earn more ;) If it was 5 per cent you are even break even, ok you get the money later buthey you want succes right? And i don't think the 5% are that utopic, i just remember one season where a tema tanked down(i believe that time from 4 to 6) and was nearly that succesful like me the next season, and the visitor income was quite different with comparable arenas.

Last edited by CrazyEye at 4/22/2012 5:24:09 AM

From: 7ton

This Post:
11
214533.43 in reply to 214533.42
Date: 4/22/2012 10:43:21 AM
Overall Posts Rated:
4545
Sorry I can't understand the 100k here and there. You can't come up with numbers out of thin air. All I know is the -430k I am facing will be hard to fill.

Last edited by 7ton at 4/22/2012 10:44:53 AM

From: CrazyEye

To: 7ton
This Post:
00
214533.44 in reply to 214533.43
Date: 4/22/2012 12:51:56 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
959959
i used a low estimate, on the additional arena income the next eason and that it are 3 per cent i am pretty sure. And if you calculate with 50% chanche, which is indeed to high you should atleast add this income from the next game for the calculation but if you exclude everything on the plus side you end up with a minus.

Last edited by CrazyEye at 4/22/2012 12:52:23 PM

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