the problem is that these 3 pointers are coming after 2 or 3 seconds from the beginning of the offensive play. Those should be desperation 3s and should have a 1 in 50 chance of going in...1 in 50, no. But about 10-20%, yes, depending upon the shooter and whether he can get within 30 feet. If your team is putting in its best 3 point shooters and you can get a decent look from 30 feet away against a team instructed to avoid fouling, 10-20% is pretty reasonable I think. The way the game engine works now, I would expect these three pointers to on average have a lower chance to go in than a typical three pointer taken, and much lower than the typical one taken early in the shot clock. I'm going to investigate whether this is true and get back to you with the details.As far as the pace, let me think about a better way to model it. My feeling in general is that a three pointer within 2-3 seconds on a player after a timeout should be a reasonable shot, but that one 2-3 seconds after, say, a rebound on a missed free throw or a backcourt inbounds pass should be much tougher.
the problem is that these 3 pointers are coming after 2 or 3 seconds from the beginning of the offensive play. Those should be desperation 3s and should have a 1 in 50 chance of going in...