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Draft: Questions, help and more...

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From: Kilrtom

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241797.37 in reply to 241797.35
Date: 5/28/2013 5:47:48 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
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I was at least basing my approach on the idea that 5-ball guys initially were more likely to end up really being 5-ball players when scouted. Is that false? Do I have just as much chance of finding a good draftee by picking from the 1-ball and 2-ball guys initially?


Yeah the grey balls pretty much mean nothing. 5 balls can be anywhere in the draft. Sometimes making the group demonstration worthwhile.

Manager of the Bahamas National Team!
From: E.B.W.

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241797.38 in reply to 241797.37
Date: 5/28/2013 5:51:55 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
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Personally I love the group demonstration because it usually reveals at least 2 good prospects.

Murray/Harris/MPJ/Grant/Jokic - 2020 NBA Champs
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241797.39 in reply to 241797.38
Date: 5/28/2013 7:59:44 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
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Yeah I should have gone with the group demo. Instead I focused on taller players and have found absolute crap.

My best prospect at this point is a 4 ball non-interview 19 yr old. My next best is a 3 ball.

The three guys I have interviewed ended up 1/2 ball pot.

Anyway next season I'll just go for the group demo and not care about height/age. Unless I save a bunch of draft points its just not worth doing the combine as it leaves very little for interviews.

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241797.40 in reply to 241797.39
Date: 5/28/2013 10:01:49 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
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Good plan. I wont be drafting in awhile. This season by doing the group demo though, I found my new franchise player (5/4 A+) and a 5/3 who were both 18. Hopefully I can pick up the 5/3 guy in the 2nd round as well.

Murray/Harris/MPJ/Grant/Jokic - 2020 NBA Champs
From: redcped

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241797.41 in reply to 241797.36
Date: 5/28/2013 11:23:08 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
304304
Yes. The 5 ball potential hall of famer with a 5k starting salary can be anywhere on the list. Same goes for the 2/2 scrub that no one wants. The grey balls mean nothing.


Thank you for the explanation. It amazes me how I've done anything well in this game at all not having information like that all this time. It had never occurred to me before that they would intentionally mislead you.

The draft/scouting page says: "Your scouts have provided a very rough estimate of the player's skills and potential based on the word on the streets. Expect this evaluation to be fairly inaccurate."

There's a big gap between fairly inaccurate and totally random, isn't there? At least fairly inaccurate suggests that there is some rhyme or reason, that if you have to start somewhere the guys at the top shouldn't be completely awful potentially.

Word on the street might overhype a guy, but it's pretty unlikely that it would call a guy with no skills or potential a 5-ball prospect at any point. I could understand if a guy initially shown as 5 might drop as low as 3 when scouted, and that there can be some surprises among the 1-ball guys. But it should have at least some accuracy, shouldn't it?

Now at least I understand why I have yet to draft a great prospect.

From: E.B.W.

This Post:
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241797.42 in reply to 241797.41
Date: 5/29/2013 12:21:14 AM
Overall Posts Rated:
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I also wish there was a little bit more structure to it but at the same time it makes it easier to steal picks in the system that it is right now, so I'm okay with it.

Murray/Harris/MPJ/Grant/Jokic - 2020 NBA Champs
From: Tesse

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241797.43 in reply to 241797.41
Date: 5/29/2013 12:47:22 PM
Cruesli
DBA Pro A
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Second Team:
The Milk
totally random is too extreme as well. It's what people say on the forums because they feel that way but I haven't seen any good studies on it. The consensus though is that it is a really really poor estimate. I guess there's probably a .01-.10 correlation between the grey balls and eventual skills but that still means that you can't really rely on it.

Crunchy! If you eat fast enough
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241797.44 in reply to 241797.43
Date: 5/30/2013 1:26:23 AM
Overall Posts Rated:
1717
I have a question on age vs potential. Looking on people's opinions on how they'd rank these players.

Player 1: 5/5...A+...PF...Upper 6'...Age 19
Player 2: 5/5...A.....PF...Mid 6'......Age 19
Player 3: 5/4...A.....SF...Low 6'.....Age 18

Heights are broken into ranges 6'- 6'4", 6'5"- 6'8", 6'9" -7'. Figured I'd be a little vague on the heights in case any league spies are around. :-)

This Post:
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241797.45 in reply to 241797.44
Date: 5/30/2013 1:39:22 AM
Overall Posts Rated:
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5/5 A+ is amazing. It's just a shame that he is 19 even the third player is better than what most people can get in their drafts.

Murray/Harris/MPJ/Grant/Jokic - 2020 NBA Champs
This Post:
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241797.46 in reply to 241797.2
Date: 6/5/2013 9:19:20 AM
Overall Posts Rated:
455455
I also think that A/B/C are better than D/E/F. The latter 3 will either have star or all-star potential which makes having better starting skills pretty much pointless if they're going to cap out after 2-3 seasons.

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