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This ia a topic that hits the centre of my attention as I'm interested in all that's being discussed here.

Btw, +1 for the quote you pulled up from 2009 about OD. That was an outstanding find!

I am sad to say I've forgotten how you configured your team offensively - I know you had the big shotblocking and low IS, but I don't remember if you went heavy on passing and tried to scrape together points by generating more assists or if you actually also put significant work into training JR/JS. But I'm curious for your opinions as well on the issue of "open" (uncontested) shots from guards vs. contested and open shots from your big men. I know watching PBP of my heavily Princeton team for season after season, and checking the advanced stats when that tool on the USA offsite was working, I got the strong impression that uncontested shots from guards were still not exactly high percentage when going against a team with good OD rating.

I may have to try to see where (if anywhere) I ended up documenting a specific player. I know I had a specific player (Jack Poirier) who for most of his time with the team had the highest JS on the club (and was among the top passers). Over I think a three season span, he consistently shot below 50% on uncontested jump shots but actually over 50% (or at least higher) on contested jump shots.

And so while I agree that passing is much lower than it probably should be game wide, I'm not personally convinced that it's the solution to the outside shooting problem. It'd be great to see more done with high JR and high passing against quality competition, and maybe there's someone out there who's done that (beyond BB-Ryan's data points even?). I just find that passing is exceptionally helpful in scoring inside (where open shots are *much* better), but my experiences make me tend to think it doesn't help that much on outside or jump shots.

Guess we haven't seen higher PA or HA and therefore no change in how the game seems to work.

I'll tell you this: I had 65 Passing in my starting 5 last season. It helps, but it's nowhere near enough to be able to run outside offenses and trump OD with limited shooting. Shooting is also required which leads to the real problem: the salary and potential required to build players with high PA, high OD (which by default means relatively high DR/HA) and high JR.

Salary, potential, and time to train that JR. I think honestly that, as much as anything, makes it hard, because you essentially have to add it on top of the training that you might do for a LI-focused guard, and the amount of time it would take to get the JR from starting levels to high levels is quite significant indeed. But I think I've beaten that horse into glue already.

well the fact is training JR is very likely much faster than training IS. The problem is that you can't do without OD and it's not wise to do without PA. So if you have a guy with 20 IS like Mordor's guy instead of 20 JR you end up having a very salary efficient player. 20 JR on the other hand will force you to pay a huge salary and, unless you hold back OD/PA, it's not even achievable unless you have a HoF potential.

Just out of curiosity, based on my experiences, I wonder if you ever noticed either that your guys shot better percentages when guarded as opposed to uncontested shots, or if you saw more than a couple of games where your players had high PP100 predictions that they massively underperformed (e.g., 25% shooting or less on a 90+ PP100)?

Unfortunately, I don't have that information for you. My days of watching games live and in depth box score analysis are long gone. That said, if there are inquisitive minds out there that want to use my team as a case study I have no problem with privately supplying them with the skills of my players.

I might at some point in the future. I'm currently enjoying one of the patented Princeton half-quarter funks (which shouldn't be a surprise tonight, since my team should be outmatched, but I think if I looked back at all my Princeton games, I could probably find a six minute stretch where I score 2 or fewer points at least one game in four).

Just out of curiosity, based on my experiences, I wonder if you ever noticed either that your guys shot better percentages when guarded as opposed to uncontested shots, or if you saw more than a couple of games where your players had high PP100 predictions that they massively underperformed (e.g., 25% shooting or less on a 90+ PP100)?

If you are interested, I can provide some data from my team on that matter.. Since 29th season I had three quite decent shooters on my team, OS team rating was about 13, flow around 10.. So I made some analysis..
Season 29:
Open shots: Scored 31, missed 43, so, 31/74=42%
Defended shots: Scored 65, missed 86, so, 65/151=43%
Season 30:
Open:17/48=35%
Def:76/162=47%
Season 30 (something happened):
Open:33/62=53%
Def:58/125=46%
Season 31:
Open:18/40=45%
Def:55/116=47%
These taken three point shots are only of those 3 players, when they played motion or RnG, mostly at pg/sg positions.. So they managed to shoot better against defenders than open..

Last edited by minde at 3/1/2016 3:18:24 AM

I can't draw any conclusions from those stats, other than that variance is helluva messing with us.