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FD - HCA

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From: BB-Forrest

To: Coco
This Post:
00
112490.5 in reply to 112490.4
Date: 9/19/2009 9:08:42 PM
1986 Celtics
IV.21
Overall Posts Rated:
88
okay so lets look at last season for teams that won >8 games and <12

This Post:
00
112490.6 in reply to 112490.5
Date: 9/19/2009 9:14:42 PM
1986 Celtics
IV.21
Overall Posts Rated:
88
sorry my other numbers were wrong.. my query was written wrong...
there were 4597 away games played by D1 teams with wins >8 and <12
of those 3177 were won by the home team.
Now that is starting to be a little high at 69%
restricting it to the leagues you put below doesn't change the percentage much at all.

I need to think about what the HCA should be for .500 teams should be... I think they should win fewer away games than average, but I'm not sure.



Last edited by BB-Forrest at 9/19/2009 9:31:02 PM

From: sneakyB

To: Coco
This Post:
00
112490.8 in reply to 112490.7
Date: 9/19/2009 10:15:44 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
44
There's something to consider while you collect all that data : because of the importance of HCA, lots of managers in competitive leagues wil drop the away game by sending their subs and selecting the "take it easy" setting.

From: BB-Forrest

To: Coco
This Post:
00
112490.10 in reply to 112490.9
Date: 9/19/2009 10:24:41 PM
1986 Celtics
IV.21
Overall Posts Rated:
88
well if its 69% and this effect means it is really between 60-65 i'd say managers that throw those games away are doing it at their own peril.

From: BB-Forrest

To: Coco
This Post:
00
112490.12 in reply to 112490.11
Date: 9/19/2009 10:42:35 PM
1986 Celtics
IV.21
Overall Posts Rated:
88
I dont' know... I don't know how much of an institutional memory there is... the season before the effect was much higher and was definitely self re-enforcing.. I am not persuaded a large change is needed... maybe a small one.. but generally our principle is that if its not largely out of whack its better to keep the playing field even and unchanging rather than be making tweaks left and right. I know it might not seem that way, but we try to not go changing things unless we feel like it needs to make a big difference in the long term of the game.