So you assumed I am a noob and I assumed that all your links are claptrap. Now you throw at me a bunch of meaningless numbers ... our relation hasn't started well.
Maybe I should try to explain why more information is needed.
Let's talk about degrees of freedom. Or better let's talk about systems of equations.
If you have three variables and three equations, you can in general precisely determine the values.
If you have four variables and three equations, well, you use a variable as a parameter and see how well your model works.
But in BB you have hundreds of variables. Each player has 14 skills. Then you have the team variables, the tactics... even if your team is playing, the value of half of them are unknown. Then of course you have randomness (with everything equal, a shot can go in or out).
And you have to try to guess things from a few team ratings and stark reports.
That task is intractable.
If we want to guess something about the game engine, even partial or inacurate, we need some guidance from the BBs that know the code. That guidance can stimulate further research. At least it can stimulate curiosity. Because right now, and I mean at the part of the managers, the game is stagnated.