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I don't spend a bunch of time on the ratings as I agree they have flaws. I prefer to look at trends of players and the individual match ups.

As a manager who has won and lost his fair share of questionable games I can honestly say, shrug it of and move on. Would you prefer that the best team always wins? I doubt it. The games are played on the floor, not on paper. So there is always going to be a few upsets, just like real life.

I also feel that not much credit is given to 'quality' built players. Have a look at many teams including mine and you will see results that don't jive. Thru many conversations with some of the top managers in Naismith I have become a firm believer in proper building of players, not just going with great primary skills. Too many people build 'cookie cutter' players and expect great results, everyone needs to think outside the box a bit and consider building players that are more versatile and effective.

Can you or anybody else explain to me?

I didn't analyze this game at all, only checked the team and matchup ratings. Overall, it looks like a random loss that may be somewhat more probable than what the ratings suggest due to things like FT skills. The losing team typically goes about 0.6 (0.2 in this game) from the bonus line while my team shoots about 0.7 (and my team's FT skills could definitely be much better). Play this game ten more times without changing anything, and Kaksi Tornia would IMO win most of the games.

The random factor is there. Some people think it's too big when they look at individual games. I don't know about that. But it seems to me that's really what many highlight moments in the history of sports are made of. A shot that just happened to go in and ended a close game, perhaps for a clear underdog even. Call it skill, will to win, determination, stepping up, or whatever. It's still a question of probability.

I think that the difference between the strength of the two teams is way bigger for the random factor to decide the match, besides the tactical and home advantage. Maybe it should really be lowered.

You are saying that 100 out of 100 games the same team should win with these ratings, if you are saying the random factor can/must not be big enough to decide who wins. Just scoring the free throws at their usual rate would have won the game for the home team, so it was a close game. I'm not arguing that it should be that close every time with these ratings, but I think there's really nothing terrible about the fact that it happens sometimes.

Generally speaking I don't like these after-game discussions if the point is to argue that something shouldn't happen based on a few samples. It would be more meaningful to select a large number of games before they are played and then analyze them all. That's essentially how the BB's tune the GE, although the process is certainly somewhat different and most things are probably done automatically.

I don't agree with your analysis. You decided to weight the matchup ratings based on... ¿the performed shoting distribution?
That will have serious issues. First, and most importantly, that is NOT(likely) the shoting distribution of the tactic. The "theoric" distribution is not known... so you can't draw any conclusion out of 1 simple game. I really think there are some issues with the way you try to analyze matchups. In fact, there are many issues when traying to understand games based only on matchups. Even when only looking at the game resume. Many key aspects are not captured on it and can only be seen live.

can you make a deeper explanation please..?
maybe you can give an example..
i don't understand for what reason would you look at those match-up ratings if you don't make an analyze like mine..
if you can get a result different from mine by adding some other things or watching the game please explain how do you do that..

I don't weight matchups like you do, because I know I would be doing something wrong and I would generate poor information to take deiciosions. That is why I don't make that analysis like you do.

I prefer to assume that I don't know the shot distribution and work from there.

So, I watch live games in order to understand what is happening in the court to later constrast it with the information provided by the game resume.

One of the main issues of the game resume is that it doesn't provide any meaningfull information about time. What I'm really intrested are the "real" matchups that ocurr during the development of the game. Because, that is what is going to determine what happens or not in a game. Not the game resume.

Then, like in the rules is suggested... there is information that can only be obtained by watching the game live and that is not contained in the resume.

Think about a basketball game. Would the resume tell you the story of the court? Will the statistics of a player tell you how the player is? Both will give insight (something useful by the way), but I prefer to understand that are just insights and not the only answer.

I don't weight matchups like you do, because I know I would be doing something wrong and I would generate poor information to take deiciosions. That is why I don't make that analysis like you do.

I prefer to assume that I don't know the shot distribution and work from there.

So, I watch live games in order to understand what is happening in the court to later constrast it with the information provided by the game resume.

One of the main issues of the game resume is that it doesn't provide any meaningfull information about time. What I'm really intrested are the "real" matchups that ocurr during the development of the game. Because, that is what is going to determine what happens or not in a game. Not the game resume.

this is from BB-Forrest:

"..the matchup ratings are a measure of offensive efficiency and will continue to be calculated in exactly the same way. Obviously how efficent you are is a function of who is guarding you, so in that way they are affected by defensive swaps i suppose.."

what i understand from this sentences is; even if you don't watch a game where zone defenses are used, you can have some useful informations about the shots by looking at the match-up ratings because they take the swaps into account..

Sorry, I still can't find the way to see the matchup value of my starter PG against my rival starter PG, my bench PG against my rival starter PG, etc.

Because, one value doesn't provide you that info, right? So, it doesn't tell you the story when considering time, right? Then, game resume doesn't consider time* while viewing the game live it does, right?

*In that sense of time, because it's clear you can see how much time your starter and bech did play. But you can not see agaisnt who, for how long, and what happend in those scenarios.

That is why I argue that game resume doesn't consider time and my claim before it was that while you don't consider that variable your analysis will provided poor(and maybe misleading) information.

That is why I argue that game resume doesn't consider time and my claim before it was that while you don't consider that variable your analysis will provided poor(and maybe misleading) information.

if you remember i have proposed 2 possibilities by looking at the results..

1. random factor is huge..
2. match-up ratings are nonsense..

you don't accept that my analysis method is right but you don't propose another analysis method..
i mean, you say that you totally don't care about those match-up ratings..
that means you go with the second option; match-up ratings are nonsense..
if you think that they are worth looking at, please tell me your method of evaluating those numbers..

I believe there is something we can agree: the game resume is not z}a perfect tool to understand a game. Like any tool designed to resume, a lot of info is lost on the process.

My claim about the method you empleyed, in fact, did not provide you with another (hopefully better) tool. What I can do is to try to enforce you the approach and importance of the live game when evaluating a result.

Personally, I believe this was intentionally designed this way. There are clues you can fin watching the game that are not captured in the resume. You can still use tools like the performed distribution to weight the matchups, but you have to consider the limitations of your method.

How do I read them? Work in progress. I don't feel comfortable by releasing something I know have flaws. So I will pass on this one...

BTW, How much important do you think it might be the most common training patterns for inside/outside players in the discussion about tactics?

Last edited by Zero, the Magi. at 1/30/2010 6:43:52 PM